Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.50 · now $3.50 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BBD has typically landed between $3.00 and $4.14 — a range of −14.3% to +18.3% from the issuance price $3.50.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.50) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BBD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.5 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $3.5 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.51 (+0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.24–$3.78
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3–$4.14
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −53.0% | −53.0% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-25 | −49.2% | −49.2% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −48.6% | −48.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-05-07 | +62.8% | −3.0% | +62.8% |
| 2016-02-19 | +56.5% | +0.0% | +56.5% |
| 2016-02-18 | +56.2% | +0.0% | +56.2% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Scarpelli Cassiano Ricardo | officer | Sale | 70,000 @ $18.50 | $1.3M | −99.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 360 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Paris Roberto de Jesus | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $18.50 | $463K | −8.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 271,127 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Paris Roberto de Jesus | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $18.25 | $456K | −7.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 296,127 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Fernandes Oswaldo Tadeu | officer | Sale | 16,300 @ $18.41 | $300K | −5.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 268,805 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Fernandes Oswaldo Tadeu | officer | Sale | 12 @ $18.41 | $221 | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 268,793 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Ramalho Miranda Jose Augusto | director | Sale | 6,300 @ $16.61 | $105K | −3.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 157,291 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Ramalho Miranda Jose Augusto | director | Sale | 77 @ $16.61 | $1K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 157,214 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Ramalho Miranda Jose Augusto | director | Sale | 9,300 @ $0.06 | $558 | −99.4% of holding | +14.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 60 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Ramalho Miranda Jose Augusto | director | Sale | 60 @ $0.06 | $4 | −100.0% of holding | +14.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Bueno Julio Cesar | officer | Purchase | 110,400 @ $18.10 | $2.0M | +65.0% of holding | +5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 280,153 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Bueno Julio Cesar | officer | Purchase | 41 @ $18.11 | $743 | +0.0% of holding | +5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 280,194 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Neto Jose Ramos Rocha | officer | Purchase | 57 @ $17.68 | $1K | +211.1% of holding | +8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 84 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | de Minas Mauricio Machado | officer | Sale | 29,800 @ $17.56 | $523K | −7.0% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 393,051 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Camara Rogerio Pedro | director | Sale | 146,338 @ $18.03 | $2.6M | −37.7% of holding | +0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 241,817 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Ramalho Miranda Jose Augusto | director | Sale | 10,292 @ $18.00 | $185K | −98.4% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 164 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
2 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Di Marcello Francesco | officer | Other acquisition | 56,800 | 55,844 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | Di Marcello Francesco | officer | Other acquisition | 50 | 112,644 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.