BBBlackBerry LimitedTechnology · Software - Infrastructureas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $7.64 · now $7.64 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BB has typically landed between $5.88 and $10.03 — a range of −23.0% to +31.3% from the issuance price $7.64.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($7.64) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where BB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $7.64 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$5.88worst · -23.0%$10.03best · +31.3%
  • now $7.64 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $7.51 (-1.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $6.66–$8.35
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $5.88–$10.03
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2021-01-27−60.0%−60.0%+0.0%
2008-09-25−53.9%−53.9%+0.0%
2008-09-24−52.2%−52.2%+0.8%
3 best
2020-12-24+255.5%−6.8%+255.5%
2020-12-23+166.9%−7.2%+166.9%
2020-12-22+150.8%−8.5%+150.8%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
+9.0%
n=20
Feb
50%
−1.9%
n=20
Mar
50%
−1.6%
n=20
Apr
45%
+4.3%
n=20
May
60%
+7.2%
n=20
Jun
35%
−3.2%
n=20
Jul
35%
−3.6%
n=20
Aug
45%
+3.1%
n=20
Sep
40%
−5.6%
n=20
Oct
40%
−0.7%
n=20
Nov
50%
+2.8%
n=20
Dec
45%
+1.3%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$13$32026-07-14: 1 insider sale, $340K — Kurtz Philip S.2026-07-09: 6 insider sales, $1.9M — GIAMATTEO JOHN JOSEPH, Foote Tim, Kurtz Philip S., Armstrong-Owen Jennifer …2026-07-08: 1 insider sale, $1.4M — GIAMATTEO JOHN JOSEPH2026-07-02: 5 insider sales, $715K — GIAMATTEO JOHN JOSEPH, Foote Tim, Kurtz Philip S., Armstrong-Owen Jennifer …2026-04-04: 2 insider sales, $131K — Armstrong-Owen Jennifer, Foote Tim2026-04-02: 4 insider sales, $130K — GIAMATTEO JOHN JOSEPH, Kurtz Philip S., Armstrong-Owen Jennifer, Foote Tim2026-01-06: 4 insider sales, $350K — GIAMATTEO JOHN JOSEPH, Foote Tim …2026-01-02: 9 insider sales, $1.1M — GIAMATTEO JOHN JOSEPH, Foote Tim, Kurtz Philip S., Armstrong-Owen Jennifer …2025-10-02: 5 insider sales, $205K — GIAMATTEO JOHN JOSEPH, ERIKSSON MATTIAS, Kurtz Philip S., Foote Tim …2025-09-28: 2 insider sales, $219K — Kurtz Philip S. …2025-09: 2 open-market sales, $219K2025-10: 5 open-market sales, $205K2026-01: 13 open-market sales, $1.4M2026-04: 6 open-market sales, $260K2026-07: 13 open-market sales, $4.4M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Kurtz Philip S. — Sale on 2026-07-14, filed 1 day after the tradedirector GIAMATTEO JOHN JOSEPH — Sale on 2026-07-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector GIAMATTEO JOHN JOSEPH — Sale on 2026-07-09, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Foote Tim — Sale on 2026-07-09, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Kurtz Philip S. — Sale on 2026-07-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector GIAMATTEO JOHN JOSEPH — Sale on 2026-07-09, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Armstrong-Owen Jennifer — Sale on 2026-07-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector GIAMATTEO JOHN JOSEPH — Sale on 2026-07-08, filed 2 days after the tradedirector GIAMATTEO JOHN JOSEPH — Sale on 2026-07-02, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Foote Tim — Sale on 2026-07-02, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Kurtz Philip S. — Sale on 2026-07-02, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Foote Tim — Sale on 2026-07-02, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Armstrong-Owen Jennifer — Sale on 2026-07-02, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Armstrong-Owen Jennifer — Sale on 2026-04-04, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Foote Tim — Sale on 2026-04-04, filed 3 days after the tradedirector GIAMATTEO JOHN JOSEPH — Sale on 2026-04-02, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Kurtz Philip S. — Sale on 2026-04-02, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Armstrong-Owen Jennifer — Sale on 2026-04-02, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Foote Tim — Sale on 2026-04-02, filed 5 days after the tradedirector GIAMATTEO JOHN JOSEPH — Sale on 2026-01-06, filed 2 days after the tradedirector GIAMATTEO JOHN JOSEPH — Sale on 2026-01-06, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Foote Tim — Sale on 2026-01-06, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Foote Tim — Sale on 2026-01-06, filed 2 days after the tradedirector GIAMATTEO JOHN JOSEPH — Sale on 2026-01-02, filed 4 days after the tradedirector GIAMATTEO JOHN JOSEPH — Sale on 2026-01-02, filed 4 days after the tradedirector GIAMATTEO JOHN JOSEPH — Sale on 2026-01-02, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Foote Tim — Sale on 2026-01-02, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Kurtz Philip S. — Sale on 2026-01-02, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Foote Tim — Sale on 2026-01-02, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Kurtz Philip S. — Sale on 2026-01-02, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Armstrong-Owen Jennifer — Sale on 2026-01-02, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Foote Tim — Sale on 2026-01-02, filed 4 days after the tradedirector GIAMATTEO JOHN JOSEPH — Sale on 2025-10-02, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer ERIKSSON MATTIAS — Sale on 2025-10-02, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Kurtz Philip S. — Sale on 2025-10-02, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Foote Tim — Sale on 2025-10-02, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Armstrong-Owen Jennifer — Sale on 2025-10-02, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Kurtz Philip S. — Sale on 2025-09-28, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Kurtz Philip S. — Sale on 2025-09-28, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-14Kurtz Philip S.officerSale30,000 @ $11.32$340K−24.0% of holding−23.1%not yet — horizon still open95,158Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-09GIAMATTEO JOHN JOSEPHdirectorSale120,200 @ $11.45$1.4M−14.9% of holding−24.3%not yet — horizon still open687,246Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-09GIAMATTEO JOHN JOSEPHdirectorSale27,012 @ $10.92$295K−3.6% of holding−24.3%not yet — horizon still open721,316Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-09Foote TimofficerSale8,235 @ $10.92$90K−10.1% of holding−24.3%not yet — horizon still open73,535Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-09Kurtz Philip S.officerSale6,414 @ $11.07$71K−4.9% of holding−24.3%not yet — horizon still open125,158Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-09GIAMATTEO JOHN JOSEPHdirectorSale4,800 @ $11.27$54K−0.6% of holding−24.3%not yet — horizon still open807,446Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-09Armstrong-Owen JenniferofficerSale3,296 @ $10.92$36K−3.0% of holding−24.3%not yet — horizon still open106,091Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-08GIAMATTEO JOHN JOSEPHdirectorSale125,000 @ $11.00$1.4M−13.3% of holding−24.2%not yet — horizon still open812,246Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-02GIAMATTEO JOHN JOSEPHdirectorSale28,272 @ $11.22$317K−2.9% of holding−27.7%not yet — horizon still open937,246Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-02Foote TimofficerSale22,812 @ $12.55$286K−28.1% of holding−27.7%not yet — horizon still open58,372Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-02Kurtz Philip S.officerSale4,195 @ $11.56$48K−3.4% of holding−27.7%not yet — horizon still open120,664Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-02Foote TimofficerSale3,066 @ $11.22$34K−4.7% of holding−27.7%not yet — horizon still open62,681Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-02Armstrong-Owen JenniferofficerSale2,556 @ $11.22$29K−2.5% of holding−27.7%not yet — horizon still open101,751Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-04Armstrong-Owen JenniferofficerSale29,908 @ $3.56$106K−24.0% of holding+51.8%not yet — horizon still open94,903Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-04-04Foote TimofficerSale6,762 @ $3.56$24K−8.1% of holding+51.8%not yet — horizon still open76,277Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-04-02GIAMATTEO JOHN JOSEPHdirectorSale27,066 @ $3.56$96K−2.9% of holding+51.8%not yet — horizon still open899,146Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-04-02Kurtz Philip S.officerSale4,079 @ $3.56$15K−3.4% of holding+51.8%not yet — horizon still open117,484Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-04-02Armstrong-Owen JenniferofficerSale2,888 @ $3.56$10K−2.9% of holding+51.8%not yet — horizon still open98,161Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-04-02Foote TimofficerSale2,468 @ $3.56$9K−3.0% of holding+51.8%not yet — horizon still open81,184Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-01-06GIAMATTEO JOHN JOSEPHdirectorSale57,984 @ $3.88$225K−6.6% of holding−11.5%+182.3%818,557Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-06GIAMATTEO JOHN JOSEPHdirectorSale29,739 @ $3.88$115K−3.3% of holding−11.5%+182.3%859,840Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-06Foote TimofficerSale1,634 @ $3.88$6K−2.5% of holding−11.5%+182.3%62,785Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-06Foote TimofficerSale811 @ $3.88$3K−1.3% of holding−11.5%+182.3%59,803Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-02GIAMATTEO JOHN JOSEPHdirectorSale150,957 @ $3.82$577K−17.5% of holding−11.7%+182.1%710,685Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-02GIAMATTEO JOHN JOSEPHdirectorSale41,799 @ $3.82$160K−6.5% of holding−11.7%+182.1%599,251Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-02GIAMATTEO JOHN JOSEPHdirectorSale39,009 @ $3.82$149K−5.0% of holding−11.7%+182.1%738,048Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-02Foote TimofficerSale21,184 @ $3.82$81K−27.7% of holding−11.7%+182.1%55,346Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-02Kurtz Philip S.officerSale7,838 @ $3.89$30K−6.6% of holding−11.7%+182.1%110,096Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-02Foote TimofficerSale4,474 @ $3.82$17K−7.1% of holding−11.7%+182.1%58,247Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-02Kurtz Philip S.officerSale3,283 @ $3.89$13K−2.8% of holding−11.7%+182.1%114,188Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-02Armstrong-Owen JenniferofficerSale3,227 @ $3.82$12K−5.8% of holding−11.7%+182.1%52,473Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-02Foote TimofficerSale2,942 @ $3.82$11K−6.6% of holding−11.7%+182.1%41,626Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-02GIAMATTEO JOHN JOSEPHdirectorSale28,343 @ $4.62$131K−4.8% of holding+0.8%−24.3%568,164Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-02ERIKSSON MATTIASofficerSale5,914 @ $4.62$27K−2.0% of holding+0.8%−24.3%291,340Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-02Kurtz Philip S.officerSale4,345 @ $4.61$20K−4.2% of holding+0.8%−24.3%98,498Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-02Foote TimofficerSale3,155 @ $4.62$15K−7.4% of holding+0.8%−24.3%39,709Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-02Armstrong-Owen JenniferofficerSale2,630 @ $4.62$12K−5.0% of holding+0.8%−24.3%49,554Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-28Kurtz Philip S.officerSale29,201 @ $4.95$145K−20.9% of holding−6.8%−32.5%110,445Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-28Kurtz Philip S.officerSale14,977 @ $4.95$74K−13.6% of holding−6.8%−32.5%95,468Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-02GIAMATTEO JOHN JOSEPHdirectorSale26,998 @ $4.32$117K−4.8% of holding−14.9%−20.9%530,135Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-02ERIKSSON MATTIASofficerSale5,634 @ $4.32$24K−1.9% of holding−14.9%−20.9%284,963Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-02Kurtz Philip S.officerSale4,056 @ $4.34$18K−6.3% of holding−14.9%−20.9%60,822Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-02Foote TimofficerSale3,006 @ $4.32$13K−7.8% of holding−14.9%−20.9%35,489Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-02Armstrong-Owen JenniferofficerSale2,506 @ $4.32$11K−5.2% of holding−14.9%−20.9%46,038Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

256 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-31BRACE PHILIP GdirectorAward / grant9,663200,255Form 4
2026-08-31BRACE PHILIP GdirectorAward / grant9,663200,255Form 4
2026-08-31Bahash LisadirectorAward / grant9,816153,278Form 4
2026-08-31DISBROW LISA SdirectorAward / grant10,123359,106Form 4
2026-08-31Lynch Richard J.directorAward / grant11,810517,793Form 4
2026-08-31Mainz BarrydirectorAward / grant9,43393,263Form 4
2026-08-31O'Neill LoridirectorAward / grant9,663177,900Form 4
2026-08-31Wouters WaynedirectorAward / grant9,663416,164Form 4
2026-08-31Wouters WaynedirectorAward / grant9,663416,164Form 4
2026-08-31O'Neill LoridirectorAward / grant9,663177,900Form 4
2026-08-31Mainz BarrydirectorAward / grant9,43393,263Form 4
2026-08-31Wouters WaynedirectorAward / grant9,663416,164Form 4
2026-08-31DISBROW LISA SdirectorAward / grant10,123359,106Form 4
2026-08-31Bahash LisadirectorAward / grant9,816153,278Form 4
2026-08-31Lynch Richard J.directorAward / grant11,810517,793Form 4
2026-08-31O'Neill LoridirectorAward / grant9,663177,900Form 4
2026-08-31DISBROW LISA SdirectorAward / grant10,123359,106Form 4
2026-08-31Mainz BarrydirectorAward / grant9,43393,263Form 4
2026-08-31Lynch Richard J.directorAward / grant11,810517,793Form 4
2026-08-31Mainz BarrydirectorAward / grant9,43393,263Form 4
2026-08-31O'Neill LoridirectorAward / grant9,663177,900Form 4
2026-08-31Wouters WaynedirectorAward / grant9,663416,164Form 4
2026-08-31BRACE PHILIP GdirectorAward / grant9,663200,255Form 4
2026-08-31Bahash LisadirectorAward / grant9,816153,278Form 4
2026-08-31Lynch Richard J.directorAward / grant11,810517,793Form 4
2026-08-31BRACE PHILIP GdirectorAward / grant9,663200,255Form 4
2026-08-31Bahash LisadirectorAward / grant9,816153,278Form 4
2026-08-31DISBROW LISA SdirectorAward / grant10,123359,106Form 4
2026-07-09Armstrong-Owen JenniferofficerOption exercise7,636109,387Form 4
2026-07-09Armstrong-Owen JenniferofficerOption exercise7,636109,387Form 4
2026-07-09Armstrong-Owen JenniferofficerOption exercise7,63683,987Form 4
2026-07-09GIAMATTEO JOHN JOSEPHdirectorOption exercise61,082748,328Form 4
2026-07-09GIAMATTEO JOHN JOSEPHdirectorOption exercise61,082671,902Form 4
2026-07-09Foote TimofficerOption exercise19,08981,770Form 4
2026-07-09Foote TimofficerOption exercise19,089209,968Form 4
2026-07-09GIAMATTEO JOHN JOSEPHdirectorOption exercise61,082748,328Form 4
2026-07-09GIAMATTEO JOHN JOSEPHdirectorOption exercise61,082671,902Form 4
2026-07-09Kurtz Philip S.officerOption exercise10,908131,572Form 4
2026-07-09Kurtz Philip S.officerOption exercise10,908119,982Form 4
2026-07-09Foote TimofficerOption exercise19,08981,770Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.