BAXBaxter International Inc.Healthcare · Medical - Instruments & Suppliesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $23.53 · now $23.53 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BAX has typically landed between $20.04 and $26.56 — a range of −14.8% to +12.9% from the issuance price $23.53.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($23.53) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where BAX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $23.53 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$20.04worst · -14.8%$26.56best · +12.9%
  • now $23.53 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $23.28 (-1.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $21.73–$24.82
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $20.04–$26.56
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2025-07-01−30.3%−30.3%+0.0%
2010-04-21−29.6%−29.6%+0.0%
2025-07-02−29.5%−30.1%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-25+26.3%+0.0%+28.0%
2020-03-23+26.1%+0.0%+31.1%
2026-07-06+25.6%−4.0%+25.6%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$11.6B
market cap
$-2.10
EPS (TTM)
—
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-30
next earnings
Revenue$11.2B
'20'25
Net income−$957M
'20'25
Free cash flow$323M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr-8.5%
'20'25
ROE · by yr-15.6%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.63
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $23.53$-6.49$29.48
  • DCF (intrinsic)$-4.01
  • Analyst target · range $19.00–$27.00$20.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$23.53

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+2.5%
n=18
Feb
53%
+0.4%
n=19
Mar
63%
+0.9%
n=19
Apr
53%
+0.2%
n=19
May
47%
−1.5%
n=19
Jun
58%
+2.1%
n=19
Jul
63%
+2.0%
n=19
Aug
47%
+0.1%
n=19
Sep
47%
−1.8%
n=19
Oct
33%
−3.6%
n=18
Nov
61%
+0.5%
n=18
Dec
67%
+1.2%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$28$16↑ buys↓ sales
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

94 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-02Hider Andrew P.directorWithheld for tax54,276518,447Form 4
2026-09-02Foster JulieofficerWithheld for tax2,09829,164Form 4
2026-09-01Teaff JamesofficerWithheld for tax75030,370Form 4
2026-06-02Teaff JamesofficerWithheld for tax32131,063Form 4
2026-06-02Wallace Steven P.officerWithheld for tax15370,128Form 4
2026-06-01Zielinski Anita AofficerAward / grant13,42659,714Form 4
2026-05-05Wilkes David S.directorAward / grant12,83637,076Form 4
2026-05-05MORRISON PATRICIAdirectorAward / grant12,83642,386Form 4
2026-05-05SCHLICHTING NANCY MdirectorAward / grant12,83634,994Form 4
2026-05-05Wendell Amy McBridedirectorAward / grant12,83644,235Form 4
2026-05-05Ampofo William A. IIdirectorAward / grant12,83630,375Form 4
2026-05-05Craig Jeffrey AdirectorAward / grant12,83623,662Form 4
2026-05-05McDonnell Michael R.directorAward / grant12,83614,647Form 4
2026-05-05Shafer David BrentdirectorAward / grant12,83672,804Form 4
2026-03-06Rasul ReazurofficerWithheld for tax12,674125,557Form 4
2026-03-06Grade Joel T.officerWithheld for tax8,153271,674Form 4
2026-03-06Rosenbloom David S.officerWithheld for tax6,620138,216Form 4
2026-03-06Soriano Maria CeciliaofficerWithheld for tax2,84875,045Form 4
2026-03-06Zielinski Anita AofficerWithheld for tax1,93246,281Form 4
2026-03-02Soriano Maria CeciliaofficerWithheld for tax1,85277,894Form 4
2026-03-02Rasul ReazurofficerWithheld for tax1,614138,231Form 4
2026-03-02Rosenbloom David S.officerWithheld for tax1,336144,837Form 4
2026-02-27Carlisle CynthiaofficerAward / grant11,87129,677Form 4
2026-02-27Grade Joel T.officerAward / grant103,448103,448Form 4
2026-02-27Zielinski Anita AofficerAward / grant30,86448,214Form 4
2026-02-27Grade Joel T.officerAward / grant42,735279,828Form 4
2026-02-27Rosenbloom David S.officerAward / grant26,709146,173Form 4
2026-02-27Rosenbloom David S.officerAward / grant64,65564,655Form 4
2026-02-27Soriano Maria CeciliaofficerAward / grant23,74279,748Form 4
2026-02-27Soriano Maria CeciliaofficerAward / grant57,47157,471Form 4
2026-02-27Carlisle CynthiaofficerAward / grant17,80617,806Form 4
2026-02-27Carlisle CynthiaofficerAward / grant43,10343,103Form 4
2026-02-27Hider Andrew P.directorAward / grant201,804572,239Form 4
2026-02-27Hider Andrew P.directorAward / grant488,506488,506Form 4
2026-02-13McDonnell Michael R.directorAward / grant1,8111,811Form 4
2026-02-09Grade Joel T.officerWithheld for tax9,144236,904Form 4
2026-02-09Rasul ReazurofficerWithheld for tax5,770139,846Form 4
2026-02-09Rosenbloom David S.officerWithheld for tax5,225119,464Form 4
2026-02-09Soriano Maria CeciliaofficerWithheld for tax91856,006Form 4
2026-02-09Soriano Maria CeciliaofficerAward / grant2,27356,924Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-30$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2026-03-102026-02-17$100–250K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-17$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2026-02-112026-01-13$50–100K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-12-082025-11-10$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-31$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.