Issued 2026-09-17 at $108.97 · now $108.97 (2026-09-17, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-17 close, BANF has typically landed between $97.66 and $123.59 — a range of −10.4% to +13.4% from the issuance price $108.97.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,004 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-18 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,377 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-17 issuance close ($108.97) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-16, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BANF has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-17 close of $108.97 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $108.97 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $110.28 (+1.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $104.59–$115.97
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $97.66–$123.59
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,004 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-17. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −54.1% | −54.1% | +0.3% |
| 2020-02-20 | −49.6% | −54.2% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −46.0% | −53.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-08-20 | +57.5% | −4.7% | +57.5% |
| 2009-03-05 | +40.6% | +0.0% | +40.6% |
| 2008-12-02 | +36.4% | +0.0% | +36.4% |
5,004 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-17 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
45%
−1.8%
n=20
Feb
60%
+0.3%
n=20
Mar
65%
−0.2%
n=20
Apr
60%
+2.5%
n=20
May
45%
−0.6%
n=20
Jun
60%
+2.0%
n=20
Jul
70%
+4.8%
n=20
Aug
55%
−0.3%
n=20
Sep
50%
+0.4%
n=20
Oct
65%
+1.9%
n=20
Nov
65%
+3.2%
n=20
Dec
55%
+1.1%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | RAINBOLT DAVID E | director | Sale | 8,506 @ $115.00 | $978K | −100.0% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-06 | RAINBOLT DAVID E | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $115.00 | $345K | −26.1% of holding | −0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,506 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-05 | RAINBOLT DAVID E | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $115.03 | $230K | −14.8% of holding | −2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,506 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | RAINBOLT DAVID E | director | Sale | 17,830 @ $115.06 | $2.1M | −56.9% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,506 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-03 | RAINBOLT DAVID E | director | Sale | 11,497 @ $115.09 | $1.3M | −26.8% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,336 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | RAINBOLT DAVID E | director | Sale | 12,718 @ $115.05 | $1.5M | −22.9% of holding | −8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,833 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-28 | RAINBOLT DAVID E | director | Sale | 81,492 @ $116.71 | $9.5M | −59.5% of holding | −6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,551 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | RAINBOLT DAVID E | director | Sale | 29,740 @ $116.49 | $3.5M | −17.8% of holding | −7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 137,043 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | RAINBOLT DAVID E | director | Sale | 9,001 @ $115.11 | $1.0M | −5.1% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 166,783 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-06 | RAINBOLT DAVID E | director | Sale | 6,219 @ $115.07 | $716K | −3.4% of holding | −4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 175,784 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-29 | RAINBOLT DAVID E | director | Sale | 1 @ $115.00 | $115 | −0.0% of holding | −7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 182,003 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | RAINBOLT DAVID E | director | Sale | 24,614 @ $115.55 | $2.8M | −11.9% of holding | −9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 182,004 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-27 | RAINBOLT DAVID E | director | Sale | 205 @ $115.01 | $24K | −0.1% of holding | −8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 206,618 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | RAINBOLT DAVID E | director | Sale | 650 @ $115.02 | $75K | −0.3% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 206,823 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-23 | RAINBOLT DAVID E | director | Sale | 17,527 @ $115.53 | $2.0M | −7.8% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 207,473 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | FORAKER RANDY | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $119.91 | $360K | −100.0% of holding | −6.9% | −15.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Drummond F Ford | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $126.29 | $631K | −100.0% of holding | +3.5% | −14.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-28 | Drummond F Ford | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $124.12 | $621K | −100.0% of holding | −3.9% | −23.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-21 | FORAKER RANDY | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $126.61 | $506K | −100.0% of holding | −5.3% | −28.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | Martin William Scott | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $119.13 | $1.2M | −4.5% of holding | −2.0% | +3.1% | 214,499 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-11 | SCHMIDT DARRYL | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $122.06 | $610K | −10.3% of holding | −2.0% | −3.0% | 43,564 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-05 | Drummond F Ford | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $120.58 | $603K | −100.0% of holding | −2.9% | −6.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-29 | Drummond F Ford | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $117.97 | $590K | −100.0% of holding | +2.3% | +0.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-12 | BRAND DENNIS L | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $126.50 | $506K | −10.8% of holding | −5.1% | −5.5% | 33,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-11-21 | Martin William Scott | director | Sale | 24,607 @ $124.70 | $3.1M | −9.9% of holding | −4.1% | +1.8% | 224,499 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-11-15 | Martin William Scott | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $123.00 | $3.1M | −9.1% of holding | −1.5% | +4.1% | 249,106 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-11-14 | Martin William Scott | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $123.17 | $924K | −2.7% of holding | +1.3% | +5.7% | 274,106 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-11-13 | Martin William Scott | director | Sale | 10,298 @ $126.01 | $1.3M | −3.5% of holding | +1.1% | +6.7% | 281,606 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-11-06 | Hannah Dennis Jay | officer | Sale | 5,543 @ $126.50 | $701K | −100.0% of holding | −1.1% | +2.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-06 | Hannah Dennis Jay | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $126.68 | $633K | −47.4% of holding | −1.1% | +2.1% | 5,543 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
63 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Ingram Kimberly Kay | director | Option exercise | 500 | 2,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | Ingram Kimberly Kay | director | Option exercise | 500 | 500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Carroll Jason A | officer | Option exercise | 200 | 800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Carroll Jason A | officer | Option exercise | 200 | 200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Andrus Hannah | officer | Option exercise | 800 | 800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Andrus Hannah | officer | Option exercise | 800 | 3,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Foster Kelly | officer | Discretionary | 61 | 5,110 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | FERGUSON ROY C | officer | Discretionary | 105 | 26,423 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Slay John K JR | officer | Discretionary | 68 | 4,659 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | SCHMIDT DARRYL | director | Discretionary | 76 | 8,221 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Andrus Hannah | officer | Discretionary | 58 | 134 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | BRAND DENNIS L | officer | Discretionary | 62 | 6,697 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Carroll Jason A | officer | Discretionary | 45 | 142 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | COPELAND SCOTT | officer | Discretionary | 89 | 14,072 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Wanzer Dara | officer | Discretionary | 42 | 870 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Hannah Dennis Jay | officer | Discretionary | 58 | 194 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Harlow David R | director | Discretionary | 80 | 10,187 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | McCasland Thomas Howard III | director | Other acquisition | 85,006 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | FORAKER RANDY | officer | Option exercise | 3,000 | 3,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | FORAKER RANDY | officer | Option exercise | 3,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | RAINBOLT DAVID E | director | Other acquisition | 188 | 188 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | RAINBOLT DAVID E | director | Gift | 225,000 | 73,395 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | RAINBOLT DAVID E | director | Other acquisition | 188 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | RAINBOLT DAVID E | director | Other acquisition | 38,085 | 38,085 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | BF Bank Partners LP | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 269,223 | 4,040,777 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | RAINBOLT DAVID E | director | Other acquisition | 225,000 | 298,395 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | RAINBOLT DAVID E | director | Other acquisition | 269,223 | 4,040,777 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Martin William Scott | director | Gift | 5,000 | 209,499 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-09 | SCHMIDT DARRYL | director | Gift | 600 | 42,964 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-09 | SCHMIDT DARRYL | director | Gift | 200 | 487 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-13 | Drummond F Ford | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-13 | Drummond F Ford | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-18 | Slay John K JR | officer | Award / grant | 2,500 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-28 | Drummond F Ford | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-28 | Drummond F Ford | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-21 | FORAKER RANDY | officer | Option exercise | 4,000 | 4,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-21 | FORAKER RANDY | officer | Option exercise | 4,000 | 3,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-06 | RAINBOLT DAVID E | director | Other acquisition | 22,556 | 73,395 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-06 | RAINBOLT DAVID E | director | Discretionary | 14 | 22,556 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-06 | RAINBOLT DAVID E | director | Other acquisition | 22,556 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.