Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.55 · now $10.55 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BALY has typically landed between $7.74 and $13.33 — a range of −26.6% to +26.3% from the issuance price $10.55.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,856 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-03-29 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.55) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BALY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.55 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $10.55 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.34 (-2.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $9.47–$11.22
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $7.74–$13.33
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −74.0% | −74.0% | +0.1% |
| 2020-02-20 | −73.9% | −73.9% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −73.4% | −73.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-10-22 | +103.4% | −0.2% | +103.4% |
| 2020-10-27 | +98.4% | −0.8% | +102.1% |
| 2020-10-28 | +96.2% | +0.0% | +103.8% |
1,856 overlapping windows · 2019-03-29 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
101 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | Barker Lee Kim | officer | Award / grant | 37,672 | 37,672 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Kim Soohyung | director | Award / grant | 32,877 | 32,877 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Eaton Craig L | officer | Award / grant | 10,959 | 10,959 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | PATEL JAYMIN B | director | Award / grant | 18,726 | 52,548 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Harris Tracy S. | director | Award / grant | 9,363 | 20,282 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | ROLLINS JEFFREY W | director | Award / grant | 9,363 | 26,274 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Wilson Wanda Y. | director | Award / grant | 9,363 | 26,774 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Harris Tracy S. | director | Withheld for tax | 2,917 | 10,919 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Reeves Robeson | director | Withheld for tax | 15,108 | 245,875 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Papanier George T. | director | Withheld for tax | 11,946 | 315,874 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Barker Lee Kim | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,340 | 24,093 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Eaton Craig L | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,187 | 171,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Papanier George T. | director | Award / grant | 30,357 | 327,820 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Barker Lee Kim | officer | Award / grant | 7,366 | 27,433 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Reeves Robeson | director | Award / grant | 32,144 | 260,983 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Eaton Craig L | officer | Award / grant | 7,028 | 174,537 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Papanier George T. | director | Withheld for tax | 14,052 | 297,463 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Eaton Craig L | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,162 | 167,509 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Barker Lee Kim | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,992 | 20,067 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Papanier George T. | director | Option exercise | 35,714 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Eaton Craig L | officer | Option exercise | 2,381 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Eaton Craig L | officer | Option exercise | 5,886 | 5,885 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Eaton Craig L | officer | Option exercise | 8,267 | 171,671 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Barker Lee Kim | officer | Option exercise | 8,184 | 24,059 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Barker Lee Kim | officer | Option exercise | 8,184 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Papanier George T. | director | Option exercise | 35,714 | 311,515 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Reeves Robeson | director | Withheld for tax | 16,786 | 228,839 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Reeves Robeson | director | Option exercise | 35,714 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Reeves Robeson | director | Option exercise | 35,714 | 245,625 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Kim Soohyung | director | Award / grant | 3,027 | 64,080 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-22 | Kim Soohyung | director | Other acquisition | 623,875 | 32,480,973 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-22 | Kim Soohyung | director | Other acquisition | 623,875 | 32,480,973 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-22 | Kim Soohyung | director | Other acquisition | 623,875 | 32,480,973 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-24 | Kim Soohyung | director | Other acquisition | 254,896 | 33,104,848 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-07 | Reeves Robeson | director | Award / grant | 940,500 | 940,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-07 | Papanier George T. | director | Award / grant | 627,000 | 627,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Kim Soohyung | director | Award / grant | 4,505 | 61,053 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-16 | Kim Soohyung | director | Other acquisition | 2,400,000 | 33,359,744 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | Kim Soohyung | director | Award / grant | 5,219 | 56,548 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Harris Tracy S. | director | Withheld for tax | 3,075 | 13,836 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.