BALLBall CorporationConsumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containersas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $61.26 · now $61.26 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BALL has typically landed between $53.49 and $68.86 — a range of −12.7% to +12.4% from the issuance price $61.26.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($61.26) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where BALL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $61.26 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$53.49worst · -12.7%$68.86best · +12.4%
  • now $61.26 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $61.07 (-0.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $57.62–$64.52
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $53.49–$68.86
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−34.3%−34.3%+0.0%
2020-02-21−32.3%−32.3%+2.4%
2008-09-16−30.3%−30.6%+0.0%
3 best
2008-11-20+37.8%+0.0%+44.9%
2008-11-19+35.4%−5.5%+37.0%
2008-11-21+30.5%+0.0%+38.9%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$17.0B
market cap
$3.45
EPS (TTM)
18.5
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-04
next earnings
Revenue$13.2B
'20'25
Net income$912M
'20'25
Free cash flow$788M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr6.9%
'20'25
ROE · by yr16.8%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.29
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $61.26$24.75$86.44
  • DCF (intrinsic)$29.00
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$82.18
  • Analyst target · range $66.00–$77.00$71.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$61.26

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+1.7%
n=18
Feb
58%
+2.8%
n=19
Mar
47%
+0.9%
n=19
Apr
63%
+0.9%
n=19
May
47%
−1.0%
n=19
Jun
47%
+1.8%
n=19
Jul
68%
+2.6%
n=19
Aug
47%
+0.6%
n=19
Sep
47%
−2.6%
n=19
Oct
67%
+0.8%
n=18
Nov
83%
+3.9%
n=18
Dec
61%
+0.7%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$67$462026-08-25: 1 insider sale, $359K — Glew Mandy2026-08-11: 2 insider sales, $555K — Goodwin Deron …2026-03-04: 1 insider purchase, $100K — Villatoro Fauze2026-03-02: 1 insider sale, $710K — Pitre Kathleen2026-02-05: 1 insider sale, $712K — Carey Nate C2025-08-28: 1 insider sale, $175K — Fisher Daniel William2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $175K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $712K2026-03: 1 open-market purchase, $100K2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $710K2026-08: 3 open-market sales, $914K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Glew Mandy — Sale on 2026-08-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Goodwin Deron — Sale on 2026-08-11, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Goodwin Deron — Sale on 2026-08-11, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Villatoro Fauze — Purchase on 2026-03-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Pitre Kathleen — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed same dayofficer Carey Nate C — Sale on 2026-02-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Fisher Daniel William — Sale on 2025-08-28, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-25Glew MandyofficerSale5,626 @ $63.80$359K−43.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open7,209Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11Goodwin DeronofficerSale6,940 @ $63.04$437K−57.8% of holding−3.4%not yet — horizon still open5,067Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-11Goodwin DeronofficerSale1,869 @ $62.99$118K−13.5% of holding−3.4%not yet — horizon still open12,007Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-04Villatoro FauzeofficerPurchase1,551 @ $64.51$100K+12.7% of holding−3.4%−14.2%13,778Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-02Pitre KathleendirectorSale10,660 @ $66.63$710K−22.5% of holding−6.0%−17.5%36,772Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-05Carey Nate CofficerSale10,718 @ $66.45$712K−59.6% of holding−5.6%−18.2%7,265Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-28Fisher Daniel WilliamdirectorSale3,400 @ $51.55$175K−25.3% of holding−6.9%+22.6%10,036Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

293 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-25Glew MandyofficerOption exercise2,2789,032Form 4
2026-08-25Glew MandyofficerOption exercise2,01512,835Form 4
2026-08-25Glew MandyofficerOption exercise1,78810,820Form 4
2026-08-25Glew MandyofficerOption exercise1,7881,788Form 4
2026-08-25Glew MandyofficerOption exercise2,278759Form 4
2026-08-25Glew MandyofficerOption exercise2,0156,046Form 4
2026-08-11Goodwin DeronofficerOption exercise6,94012,007Form 4
2026-08-11Goodwin DeronofficerOption exercise6,9400Form 4
2026-06-15Ross Cathy DdirectorOption exercise10224,498Form 4
2026-06-15Ross Cathy DdirectorOption exercise10217,175Form 4
2026-06-15Sapp Betty J.directorAward / grant2298,290Form 4
2026-06-15Sapp Betty J.directorOption exercise1,1458,061Form 4
2026-06-15Sapp Betty J.directorOption exercise1,1459,056Form 4
2026-04-30ERTER AARON MdirectorOption exercise3,3695,528Form 4
2026-04-30NIEKAMP CYNTHIA AdirectorOption exercise3,36924,949Form 4
2026-04-30PANICHELLA JOHN EdirectorOption exercise1,8331,833Form 4
2026-04-30BRYANT JOHN AdirectorAward / grant32711,842Form 4
2026-04-30BRYANT JOHN AdirectorOption exercise3,36912,959Form 4
2026-04-30Penegor Todd AllandirectorOption exercise3,36911,890Form 4
2026-04-30BRYANT JOHN AdirectorOption exercise3,36911,515Form 4
2026-04-30TAYLOR STUART A IIdirectorOption exercise3,36984,203Form 4
2026-04-30TAYLOR STUART A IIdirectorAward / grant32716,214Form 4
2026-04-30Ross Cathy DdirectorOption exercise3,36917,277Form 4
2026-04-30Ross Cathy DdirectorOption exercise3,36924,069Form 4
2026-04-30Ross Cathy DdirectorAward / grant32724,396Form 4
2026-04-30Sapp Betty J.directorOption exercise3,36910,641Form 4
2026-04-30TAYLOR STUART A IIdirectorOption exercise3,36915,887Form 4
2026-04-30Sapp Betty J.directorOption exercise3,36910,201Form 4
2026-04-30PANICHELLA JOHN EdirectorOption exercise1,8332,903Form 4
2026-04-30Penegor Todd AllandirectorOption exercise3,3698,996Form 4
2026-04-30Sapp Betty J.directorOption exercise3,36910,201Form 4
2026-04-30NIEKAMP CYNTHIA AdirectorOption exercise3,36928,847Form 4
2026-04-30ERTER AARON MdirectorOption exercise3,3692,903Form 4
2026-04-30ERTER AARON MdirectorOption exercise3,3692,903Form 4
2026-04-30NIEKAMP CYNTHIA AdirectorOption exercise3,36928,847Form 4
2026-04-30PANICHELLA JOHN EdirectorOption exercise1,8332,903Form 4
2026-04-30Penegor Todd AllandirectorOption exercise3,3698,996Form 4
2026-04-29Ross Cathy DdirectorAward / grant2,90320,646Form 4
2026-04-29BRYANT JOHN AdirectorAward / grant2,90316,328Form 4
2026-04-29Penegor Todd AllandirectorAward / grant2,90312,365Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'25 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Jefferson ShreveHousesale2025-06-222025-05-12$15–50K
Jefferson ShreveHousesale2025-06-222025-05-08$15–50K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-05-142025-04-01$1–15K
Jefferson ShreveHousepurchase2025-05-082025-04-07$15–50K
Jefferson ShreveHousepurchase2025-04-112025-03-05$15–50K
HON. GREG STANTONHousesale2023-11-092023-10-24$1–15K
HON. GREG STANTONHousepurchase2023-11-092023-09-26$1–15K
Susie LeeHousesale2022-12-292022-11-30$1–15K
Ron WydenSenatesale2022-12-112022-11-11$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.