BAH · TickerCove

BAHBooz Allen Hamilton Holding CorporationIndustrials · Consulting Servicesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $78.41 · now $78.41 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BAH has typically landed between $67.76 and $89.76 — a range of −13.6% to +14.5% from the issuance price $78.41.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,959 overlapping 1 month windows · 2010-11-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($78.41) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$78.41 · 44% of range

$59.71 low$101.8 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.2%

typical move · IQR 11.1%

−13.6%worst (p90)+14.5%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where BAH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $78.41 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $78.41 (+0.0%)
typical $79.31 (+1.2%)
middle 50% $74.97–$83.65
90% range $67.76–$89.76

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,959 windows spanning 2010-11-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2026-06-01	−28.1%	−28.4%	+0.0%
2024-11-11	−26.2%	−26.2%	+0.0%
2026-01-23	−25.4%	−26.8%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-23	+30.1%	+0.0%	+34.6%
2013-04-23	+29.3%	+0.0%	+29.3%
2014-02-03	+29.2%	+0.0%	+30.8%

3,959 overlapping windows · 2010-11-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~16 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

+0.2%

n=16

Feb

50%

−0.1%

n=16

Mar

50%

+1.4%

n=16

Apr

69%

+2.4%

n=16

May

69%

+2.6%

n=16

Jun

63%

−0.8%

n=16

Jul

88%

+6.3%

n=16

Aug

56%

+1.8%

n=16

Sep

38%

−0.3%

n=16

Oct

60%

+3.8%

n=15

Nov

60%

+1.3%

n=15

Dec

50%

+0.0%

n=16

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-13	Metzfield Dennis	officer	Sale	469 @ $77.92	$37K	−8.6% of holding	+3.1%	not yet — horizon still open	4,989	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-26	Metzfield Dennis	officer	Sale	350 @ $78.59	$28K	−8.1% of holding	+6.2%	−17.9%	3,990	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-30	ROZANSKI HORACIO	director	Purchase	23,800 @ $84.66	$2.0M	+3.6% of holding	+0.1%	−10.9%	687,745	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-05	AMBLE JOAN LORDI	director	Purchase	930 @ $130.90	$122K	+1.7% of holding	−4.8%	−18.7%	56,860	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-06	AMBLE JOAN LORDI	director	Purchase	690 @ $145.66	$101K	+1.2% of holding	−8.1%	−29.8%	55,930	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

89 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-04	Thornberry William McClellan	director	Award / grant	3,058	7,103	Form 4
2026-08-04	OBrien Robert C	director	Award / grant	3,330	5,642	Form 4
2026-08-04	Flournoy Michele Angelique	director	Award / grant	5,028	12,216	Form 4
2026-08-04	McClain Gretchen W	director	Award / grant	4,689	37,836	Form 4
2026-08-04	Gaumond Mark E.	director	Award / grant	3,805	66,779	Form 4
2026-08-04	Dial Debra L.	director	Award / grant	3,058	6,087	Form 4
2026-08-04	Jewett Ellen	director	Award / grant	3,058	19,149	Form 4
2026-08-04	READ RORY P	director	Award / grant	4,689	14,574	Form 4
2026-08-04	Nolan Ryan	director	Award / grant	4,689	5,494	Form 4
2026-08-03	ROZANSKI HORACIO	director	Gift	74,014	719,306	Form 4
2026-08-03	ROZANSKI HORACIO	director	Gift	74,014	74,015	Form 4
2026-07-27	Nolan Ryan	director	Award / grant	805	805	Form 4
2026-06-30	Petty Joshua	officer	Withheld for tax	244	10,038	Form 4
2026-05-26	Pfeifer Thomas	officer	Award / grant	8,010	48,882	Form 4
2026-05-26	ANDERSON KRISTINE	officer	Award / grant	20,023	116,700	Form 4
2026-05-26	ROZANSKI HORACIO	director	Award / grant	58,266	793,320	Form 4
2026-05-26	Metzfield Dennis	officer	Award / grant	1,642	5,458	Form 4
2026-05-26	Inserra Andrea	officer	Award / grant	6,508	30,941	Form 4
2026-05-26	Petty Joshua	officer	Award / grant	3,004	10,282	Form 4
2026-05-26	Lahr Troy	officer	Award / grant	10,012	10,012	Form 4
2026-05-26	Lahr Troy	officer	Award / grant	37,543	47,555	Form 4
2026-05-26	Fitzgerald Buffum Shannon	officer	Award / grant	4,005	7,192	Form 4
2026-05-19	ROZANSKI HORACIO	director	Withheld for tax	60,138	735,054	Form 4
2026-05-19	ANDERSON KRISTINE	officer	Withheld for tax	9,929	96,677	Form 4
2026-05-19	Pfeifer Thomas	officer	Withheld for tax	3,665	40,872	Form 4
2026-05-19	Inserra Andrea	officer	Withheld for tax	867	24,433	Form 4
2026-05-19	ANDERSON KRISTINE	officer	Award / grant	21,036	106,606	Form 4
2026-05-19	ROZANSKI HORACIO	director	Award / grant	122,605	795,192	Form 4
2026-05-19	Pfeifer Thomas	officer	Award / grant	10,218	44,537	Form 4
2026-05-19	Inserra Andrea	officer	Award / grant	2,880	25,300	Form 4
2026-03-31	ROZANSKI HORACIO	director	Withheld for tax	15,158	672,587	Form 4
2026-03-31	ANDERSON KRISTINE	officer	Withheld for tax	3,426	85,570	Form 4
2026-03-31	Crowe Richard	officer	Withheld for tax	2,734	26,261	Form 4
2026-03-31	Laben Nancy	officer	Withheld for tax	2,604	31,317	Form 4
2026-03-31	Pfeifer Thomas	officer	Withheld for tax	1,333	34,319	Form 4
2026-03-31	Inserra Andrea	officer	Withheld for tax	758	22,420	Form 4
2026-03-31	Metzfield Dennis	officer	Withheld for tax	174	3,816	Form 4
2026-01-30	Metzfield Dennis	officer	Withheld for tax	229	4,340	Form 4
2025-12-30	Metzfield Dennis	officer	Award / grant	1,175	4,569	Form 4
2025-12-30	Laben Nancy	officer	Award / grant	5,829	33,921	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i