BAER · TickerCove

BAERBridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common StockIndustrials · Security & Protection Servicesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.01 · now $0.99 (2026-09-16, −1.8% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BAER has typically landed between $0.69 and $1.44 — a range of −32.1% to +42.5% from the issuance price $1.01.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,359 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-03-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.01) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$0.9922 · 0% of range

$0.9922 low$3.27 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.1%

typical move · IQR 17.9%

−32.1%worst (p90)+42.5%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where BAER has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.01 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $0.9922 (-1.8%)
typical $1.01 (+0.1%)
middle 50% $0.9208–$1.1
90% range $0.6854–$1.44

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,359 windows spanning 2021-03-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2023-01-26	−64.5%	−80.5%	+0.0%
2023-01-12	−63.9%	−63.9%	+84.9%
2023-01-13	−63.8%	−64.0%	+84.2%
3 best
2025-12-24	+92.4%	+0.0%	+92.4%
2025-12-26	+90.0%	+0.0%	+92.4%
2022-12-22	+86.0%	−10.4%	+86.0%

1,359 overlapping windows · 2021-03-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

40%

+11.3%

n=5

Feb

20%

−17.5%

n=5

Mar

40%

−17.0%

n=5

Apr

67%

+1.8%

n=6

May

67%

+12.3%

n=6

Jun

50%

−4.0%

n=6

Jul

67%

−2.1%

n=6

Aug

50%

−6.8%

n=6

Sep

50%

+0.3%

n=6

Oct

60%

+1.1%

n=5

Nov

80%

+0.5%

n=5

Dec

60%

−0.5%

n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-01	KELTER JEFFREY E	director	Purchase	100,000 @ $1.10	$110K	+24.9% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	502,020	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-01	KELTER JEFFREY E	director	Purchase	100,000 @ $1.09	$109K	+13.7% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	827,800	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-20	KELTER JEFFREY E	director	Purchase	50,000 @ $1.16	$58K	+4.8% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	1,086,273	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-20	KELTER JEFFREY E	director	Purchase	50,000 @ $1.16	$58K	+14.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	402,020	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-20	KELTER JEFFREY E	director	Purchase	50,000 @ $1.16	$58K	+7.4% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	727,800	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-19	KELTER JEFFREY E	director	Purchase	50,000 @ $1.20	$60K	+8.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	677,800	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-19	KELTER JEFFREY E	director	Purchase	50,000 @ $1.20	$60K	+5.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	1,036,273	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-19	KELTER JEFFREY E	director	Purchase	50,000 @ $1.20	$60K	+16.6% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	352,020	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	Blackstone Holdings II L.P.	tenPercentOwner	Sale	2,710,374 @ $1.04	$2.8M	−36.0% of holding	−18.3%	not yet — horizon still open	4,825,856	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-11	Blackstone Holdings I L.P.	tenPercentOwner	Sale	2,710,374 @ $1.04	$2.8M	−36.0% of holding	−18.3%	not yet — horizon still open	4,825,856	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-11	Blackstone Holdings II L.P.	tenPercentOwner	Sale	46,817 @ $1.04	$49K	−36.0% of holding	−18.3%	not yet — horizon still open	83,358	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-11	Blackstone Holdings I L.P.	tenPercentOwner	Sale	46,817 @ $1.04	$49K	−36.0% of holding	−18.3%	not yet — horizon still open	83,358	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-11	Blackstone Holdings I L.P.	tenPercentOwner	Sale	20,933 @ $1.04	$22K	−36.0% of holding	−18.3%	not yet — horizon still open	37,272	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-11	Blackstone Holdings II L.P.	tenPercentOwner	Sale	20,933 @ $1.04	$22K	−36.0% of holding	−18.3%	not yet — horizon still open	37,272	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-04	Blackstone Holdings I L.P.	tenPercentOwner	Sale	1,853,665 @ $1.70	$3.2M	−19.7% of holding	−39.6%	not yet — horizon still open	7,536,230	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-04	Blackstone Holdings II L.P.	tenPercentOwner	Sale	1,853,665 @ $1.70	$3.2M	−19.7% of holding	−39.6%	not yet — horizon still open	7,536,230	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-04	Blackstone Holdings I L.P.	tenPercentOwner	Sale	32,019 @ $1.70	$54K	−19.7% of holding	−39.6%	not yet — horizon still open	130,175	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-04	Blackstone Holdings II L.P.	tenPercentOwner	Sale	32,019 @ $1.70	$54K	−19.7% of holding	−39.6%	not yet — horizon still open	130,175	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-04	Blackstone Holdings I L.P.	tenPercentOwner	Sale	14,316 @ $1.70	$24K	−19.7% of holding	−39.6%	not yet — horizon still open	58,205	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-04	Blackstone Holdings II L.P.	tenPercentOwner	Sale	14,316 @ $1.70	$24K	−19.7% of holding	−39.6%	not yet — horizon still open	58,205	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-03	KELTER JEFFREY E	director	Purchase	100,000 @ $1.80	$180K	+49.5% of holding	−0.3%	−5.7%	302,020	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-03	KELTER JEFFREY E	director	Purchase	100,000 @ $1.80	$180K	+18.9% of holding	−0.3%	−5.7%	627,800	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-03	KELTER JEFFREY E	director	Purchase	100,000 @ $1.80	$180K	+15.9% of holding	−0.3%	−5.7%	728,224	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

42 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-30	FREEDMAN ERNEST MICHAEL	director	Award / grant	27,514	179,438	Form 4
2026-06-30	Heller Dean	director	Award / grant	27,514	460,138	Form 4
2026-06-30	Pasricha Meghan	director	Award / grant	27,514	213,279	Form 4
2026-06-30	SAVAGE ROBERT F JR	director	Award / grant	27,514	548,071	Form 4
2026-06-30	Schellenberg David	director	Award / grant	27,514	265,702	Form 4
2026-06-30	FASCITELLI ELIZABETH C	director	Award / grant	27,514	366,712	Form 4
2026-06-30	Drohan Dan	director	Award / grant	27,514	500,996	Form 4
2026-06-04	KELTER JEFFREY E	director	Award / grant	158,049	986,273	Form 4
2026-06-04	FASCITELLI ELIZABETH C	director	Award / grant	45,156	339,198	Form 4
2026-06-04	Heller Dean	director	Award / grant	45,156	432,624	Form 4
2026-06-04	Drohan Dan	director	Award / grant	45,156	473,482	Form 4
2026-06-04	Pasricha Meghan	director	Award / grant	45,156	185,765	Form 4
2026-06-04	Howard Hugh Wyman III	director	Award / grant	45,156	239,593	Form 4
2026-06-04	FREEDMAN ERNEST MICHAEL	director	Award / grant	45,156	151,924	Form 4
2026-06-04	SAVAGE ROBERT F JR	director	Award / grant	45,156	520,557	Form 4
2026-06-04	Schellenberg David	director	Award / grant	45,156	238,188	Form 4
2026-05-11	Davis Samuel Carl	officer	Award / grant	318,657	744,223	Form 4
2026-05-11	Davis Samuel Carl	officer	Award / grant	265,547	2,009,770	Form 4
2026-05-11	Mogford Justin D	officer	Award / grant	238,993	451,431	Form 4
2026-05-11	Mogford Justin D	officer	Award / grant	212,438	212,438	Form 4
2026-05-11	Andrews Adolphus William	officer	Award / grant	265,547	476,171	Form 4
2026-05-11	Davis Samuel Carl	officer	Award / grant	1,000,000	1,744,223	Form 4
2026-03-16	Muchmore James J	officer	Withheld for tax	27,708	764,800	Form 4
2026-03-16	Davis Samuel Carl	officer	Withheld for tax	21,114	425,566	Form 4
2026-03-09	KELTER JEFFREY E	director	Award / grant	100,000	828,224	Form 4
2026-03-09	Andrews Adolphus William	officer	Award / grant	210,624	210,624	Form 4
2025-11-25	KELTER JEFFREY E	director	Award / grant	400,000	628,224	Form 4
2025-11-25	Heller Dean	director	Award / grant	154,145	387,468	Form 4
2025-11-25	Howard Hugh Wyman III	director	Award / grant	23,799	194,437	Form 4
2025-11-25	Drohan Dan	director	Award / grant	154,145	428,326	Form 4
2025-11-25	Pasricha Meghan	director	Award / grant	140,609	140,609	Form 4
2025-11-25	SAVAGE ROBERT F JR	director	Award / grant	208,290	475,401	Form 4
2025-11-25	FREEDMAN ERNEST MICHAEL	director	Award / grant	106,768	106,768	Form 4
2025-11-25	Schellenberg David	director	Award / grant	154,145	193,032	Form 4
2025-11-25	FASCITELLI ELIZABETH C	director	Award / grant	154,145	294,042	Form 4
2025-05-28	Sheehy Timothy P	tenPercentOwner	Gift	263,833	0	Form 4
2025-05-23	Sheehy Timothy P	tenPercentOwner	Gift	6,988,248	0	Form 4
2025-05-23	Sheehy Timothy P	tenPercentOwner	Gift	2,191,937	0	Form 4
2025-03-20	Muchmore James J	officer	Withheld for tax	27,909	792,508	Form 4
2025-03-20	Davis Samuel Carl	officer	Withheld for tax	21,359	446,680	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i