BACBank of America CorporationFinancial Services · Banks - Diversifiedas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $57.90 · now $57.90 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BAC has typically landed between $50.66 and $65.12 — a range of −12.5% to +12.5% from the issuance price $57.90.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($57.90) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where BAC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $57.9 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$50.66worst · -12.5%$65.12best · +12.5%
  • now $57.9 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $58.69 (+1.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $55.46–$61.93
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $50.66–$65.12
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2009-01-05−66.4%−66.4%+2.2%
2009-01-06−66.1%−67.1%+0.0%
2008-12-17−65.1%−65.1%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-05+139.1%−1.2%+145.7%
2009-03-06+138.3%+0.0%+148.7%
2009-02-20+105.9%−17.2%+105.9%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$440.3B
market cap
$4.34
EPS (TTM)
14.3
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-14
next earnings
Revenue$191.6B
'20'25
Net income$30.5B
'20'25
Free cash flow$12.6B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr15.9%
'20'25
ROE · by yr10.1%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.21
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $57.90$31.11$78.25
  • DCF (intrinsic)$34.36
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$71.10
  • Analyst target · range $59.00–$75.00$65.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$57.90

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
−0.9%
n=18
Feb
47%
−1.5%
n=19
Mar
42%
+3.0%
n=19
Apr
47%
+1.4%
n=19
May
47%
+0.4%
n=19
Jun
53%
−0.4%
n=19
Jul
63%
+5.0%
n=19
Aug
47%
+0.0%
n=19
Sep
42%
−0.9%
n=19
Oct
67%
+1.0%
n=18
Nov
72%
+3.5%
n=18
Dec
61%
+1.8%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$65$462026-05-05: 1 insider sale, $6.7M — Greener Geoffrey S2026-03-12: 1 insider sale, $4.4M — Mensah Bernard A2026-03-05: 2 insider sales, $5.5M — Bronstein Sheri B., Scrivener Thomas M2026-03-04: 1 insider sale, $4.2M — DeMare James P2026-03-03: 1 insider sale, $6.9M — Athanasia Dean C2026-02-27: 1 insider sale, $3.4M — Borthwick Alastair M2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $6.8M2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $3.4M2026-03: 5 open-market sales, $20.9M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $6.7M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Greener Geoffrey S — Sale on 2026-05-05, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Mensah Bernard A — Sale on 2026-03-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Bronstein Sheri B. — Sale on 2026-03-05, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Scrivener Thomas M — Sale on 2026-03-05, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer DeMare James P — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Athanasia Dean C — Sale on 2026-03-03, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Borthwick Alastair M — Sale on 2026-02-27, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-05Greener Geoffrey SofficerSale126,756 @ $53.01$6.7M−8.4% of holding−2.6%not yet — horizon still open1,373,397Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-12Mensah Bernard AofficerSale94,000 @ $46.94$4.4M−35.6% of holding+10.0%+18.4%170,184Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-05Bronstein Sheri B.officerSale60,000 @ $49.91$3.0M−15.2% of holding+4.1%+13.2%335,690Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-05Scrivener Thomas MofficerSale50,000 @ $49.82$2.5M−18.0% of holding+4.1%+13.2%227,973Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-04DeMare James PofficerSale83,832 @ $50.00$4.2M−21.4% of holding+2.7%+12.9%307,240Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-03Athanasia Dean CofficerSale136,558 @ $50.21$6.9M−19.6% of holding+2.6%+12.2%558,541Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-27Borthwick Alastair MofficerSale68,000 @ $50.24$3.4M−17.2% of holding+3.0%+13.7%327,843Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

293 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-15MOYNIHAN BRIAN TdirectorDisposition18,0832,699,612Form 4
2026-08-15MOYNIHAN BRIAN TdirectorOption exercise18,0832,717,695Form 4
2026-08-15MOYNIHAN BRIAN TdirectorOption exercise18,0832,717,695Form 4
2026-08-15MOYNIHAN BRIAN TdirectorOption exercise18,083108,497Form 4
2026-08-15MOYNIHAN BRIAN TdirectorOption exercise18,0832,717,695Form 4
2026-08-15MOYNIHAN BRIAN TdirectorOption exercise18,083108,497Form 4
2026-08-15MOYNIHAN BRIAN TdirectorOption exercise18,083108,497Form 4
2026-08-15MOYNIHAN BRIAN TdirectorOption exercise18,083108,497Form 4
2026-08-15MOYNIHAN BRIAN TdirectorOption exercise18,0832,717,695Form 4
2026-07-15MOYNIHAN BRIAN TdirectorDisposition18,0832,699,612Form 4
2026-07-15MOYNIHAN BRIAN TdirectorOption exercise18,083126,580Form 4
2026-07-15MOYNIHAN BRIAN TdirectorOption exercise18,083126,580Form 4
2026-07-15MOYNIHAN BRIAN TdirectorOption exercise18,0832,717,695Form 4
2026-07-15MOYNIHAN BRIAN TdirectorOption exercise18,0832,717,695Form 4
2026-06-15MOYNIHAN BRIAN TdirectorDisposition18,0832,699,612Form 4
2026-06-15MOYNIHAN BRIAN TdirectorOption exercise18,083144,663Form 4
2026-06-15MOYNIHAN BRIAN TdirectorOption exercise18,0832,717,695Form 4
2026-06-15MOYNIHAN BRIAN TdirectorOption exercise18,0832,717,695Form 4
2026-06-15MOYNIHAN BRIAN TdirectorOption exercise18,083144,663Form 4
2026-05-15MOYNIHAN BRIAN TdirectorDisposition18,0832,699,612Form 4
2026-05-15MOYNIHAN BRIAN TdirectorOption exercise18,083162,746Form 4
2026-05-15MOYNIHAN BRIAN TdirectorOption exercise18,0832,717,695Form 4
2026-05-15MOYNIHAN BRIAN TdirectorOption exercise18,083162,746Form 4
2026-05-15MOYNIHAN BRIAN TdirectorOption exercise18,0832,717,695Form 4
2026-05-04Woods Thomas DdirectorWithheld for tax2,47375,286Form 4
2026-05-04ALMEIDA JOSE EdirectorAward / grant5,36533,606Form 4
2026-05-04Martinez MariadirectorAward / grant5,36513,984Form 4
2026-05-04Zuber Maria TdirectorAward / grant5,36573,105Form 4
2026-05-04DONALD ARNOLD WdirectorAward / grant5,365131,204Form 4
2026-05-04Woods Thomas DdirectorAward / grant5,36577,759Form 4
2026-05-04Allen Sharon L.directorAward / grant5,36545,355Form 4
2026-05-04NOWELL LIONEL L IIIdirectorAward / grant8,718201,595Form 4
2026-05-04ROSE CLAYTON STUARTdirectorAward / grant5,36574,303Form 4
2026-05-04Ramos Denise LdirectorAward / grant5,36584,673Form 4
2026-05-04NOWELL LIONEL L IIIdirectorAward / grant8,718201,595Form 4
2026-05-04Ramos Denise LdirectorAward / grant5,36584,673Form 4
2026-05-04ROSE CLAYTON STUARTdirectorAward / grant5,36574,303Form 4
2026-05-04WHITE MICHAEL DdirectorAward / grant5,365103,942Form 4
2026-05-04LOZANO MONICA CdirectorAward / grant5,365246,348Form 4
2026-05-04Allen Sharon L.directorAward / grant5,36545,355Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$15–50K
James A. HimesHousesale2026-07-202026-07-20$1–15K
Laurel LeeHousesale2026-07-192026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-02$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-01$15–50K
Tim WalbergHousepurchase2026-06-032025-02-07$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-24$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-30$50–100K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-10$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-05$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.