BAThe Boeing CompanyIndustrials · Aerospace & Defenseas of 2026-09-25
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-25 at $198.07 · now $198.07 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, BA has typically landed between $166.06 and $231.87 — a range of −16.2% to +17.1% from the issuance price $198.07.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($198.07) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where BA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $198.07 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$166.06worst · -16.2%$231.87best · +17.1%
  • now $198.07 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $197.44 (-0.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $184.53–$210.35
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $166.06–$231.87
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,692 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-20−71.7%−71.7%+0.0%
2020-02-19−71.1%−71.1%+0.0%
2020-02-18−69.9%−69.9%+0.0%
3 best
2020-05-07+79.2%−6.7%+79.2%
2020-05-06+68.6%−1.5%+68.6%
2020-05-15+64.8%+0.0%+92.1%

4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$165.2B
market cap
$2.06
EPS (TTM)
101.7
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-28
next earnings
Revenue$89.5B
'20'25
Net income$2.2B
'20'25
Free cash flow−$1.9B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr2.5%
'20'25
ROE · by yr41.0%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr9.98
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $198.07$-513.72$354.91
  • DCF (intrinsic)$-453.81
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$63.15
  • Analyst target · range $250.00–$295.00$278.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-25$198.07

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+2.0%
n=18
Feb
63%
+0.7%
n=19
Mar
37%
−1.9%
n=19
Apr
58%
+1.3%
n=19
May
53%
+0.7%
n=19
Jun
53%
+0.3%
n=19
Jul
58%
+2.4%
n=19
Aug
37%
−0.1%
n=19
Sep
53%
−2.1%
n=19
Oct
44%
+0.0%
n=18
Nov
67%
+6.4%
n=18
Dec
78%
+3.0%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$252$1792026-05-20: 1 insider purchase, $299K — TILDEN BRADLEY D2026-03-03: 1 insider purchase, $500K — Buckley Mortimer J2026-02-24: 1 insider sale, $351K — Amuluru Uma M2026-02-17: 1 insider sale, $1.5M — Schmidt Ann M2026-02-05: 1 insider sale, $2.5M — McKenzie Howard E2026-02-04: 1 insider sale, $645K — Amuluru Uma M2025-11-24: 1 insider purchase, $99K — DEASY DANA S2025-11-06: 1 insider sale, $270K — Amuluru Uma M2025-08: 1 open-market purchase, $497K2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $867K2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $99K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $270K2026-02: 4 open-market sales, $5.0M2026-03: 1 open-market purchase, $500K2026-05: 1 open-market purchase, $299K↑ buys↓ salesdirector TILDEN BRADLEY D — Purchase on 2026-05-20, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Buckley Mortimer J — Purchase on 2026-03-03, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Amuluru Uma M — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Schmidt Ann M — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer McKenzie Howard E — Sale on 2026-02-05, filed same dayofficer Amuluru Uma M — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector DEASY DANA S — Purchase on 2025-11-24, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Amuluru Uma M — Sale on 2025-11-06, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-20TILDEN BRADLEY DdirectorPurchase1,370 @ $218.50$299Kownership Δ n/a−1.3%not yet — horizon still open1,370Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-03Buckley Mortimer JdirectorPurchase2,230 @ $224.20$500K+101.4% of holding−4.1%−20.8%4,430Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-24Amuluru Uma MofficerSale1,503 @ $233.78$351K−7.3% of holding−10.3%−21.6%19,015Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-17Schmidt Ann MofficerSale6,281 @ $243.37$1.5M−31.0% of holding−12.5%−21.6%13,978Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-05McKenzie Howard EofficerSale10,497 @ $233.99$2.5M−41.7% of holding−5.1%−15.8%14,692Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-04Amuluru Uma MofficerSale2,731 @ $236.00$645K−18.6% of holding−0.0%−14.2%11,925Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-24DEASY DANA SdirectorPurchase554 @ $178.88$99K+2.0% of holding+18.3%+14.2%28,442Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-06Amuluru Uma MofficerSale1,366 @ $197.66$270K−8.5% of holding+3.0%+10.3%14,656Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-19Buckley Mortimer JdirectorPurchase2,200 @ $226.10$497Kownership Δ n/a−7.7%−3.7%2,200Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-08Raymond David ChristopherofficerSale3,771 @ $229.94$867K−9.5% of holding−1.9%−2.7%35,873Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-15Nelson Brendan J.officerSale640 @ $206.28$132K−4.6% of holding−4.3%−20.1%13,258Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-13Shockey Jeffrey SofficerSale3,205 @ $202.87$650K−13.5% of holding−2.7%−21.1%20,513Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-06Cleary Michael JofficerSale3,000 @ $186.00$558K−12.0% of holding+6.3%−15.0%21,950Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-02Raymond David ChristopherofficerSale3,899 @ $187.01$729K−8.4% of holding+9.9%−12.6%42,513Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-01Pope Stephanie FofficerSale16,768 @ $183.78$3.1M−23.3% of holding+9.5%−13.0%55,315Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-01Cleary Michael JofficerSale2,000 @ $184.01$368K−7.4% of holding+9.5%−13.0%24,950Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-26Cleary Michael JofficerSale1,500 @ $179.02$269K−5.3% of holding+7.8%+26.8%26,950Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-20Amuluru Uma MofficerSale3,159 @ $180.69$571K−14.1% of holding+5.8%+19.3%19,213Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

236 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-28Parker Stephen KennethofficerWithheld for tax63040,600Form 4
2026-08-17MALAVE JESUS JRdirectorWithheld for tax4,20536,016Form 4
2026-08-14Raymond David ChristopherofficerGift90741,450Form 4
2026-08-10Ortberg Robert KellydirectorWithheld for tax6,233129,695Form 4
2026-07-01TILDEN BRADLEY DdirectorAward / grant3831,236Form 4
2026-07-01JOHRI AKHILdirectorAward / grant40611,725Form 4
2026-07-01Joyce David LeondirectorAward / grant44010,044Form 4
2026-07-01MOLLENKOPF STEVEN MdirectorAward / grant66914,369Form 4
2026-07-01Richardson John MdirectorAward / grant2287,127Form 4
2026-07-01Bradway Robert AdirectorAward / grant40616,283Form 4
2026-07-01Buckley Mortimer JdirectorAward / grant3832,935Form 4
2026-07-01Doughtie Lynne MdirectorAward / grant2285,859Form 4
2026-07-01Gitlin David L.directorAward / grant3837,676Form 4
2026-07-01GOOD LYNN JdirectorAward / grant40617,379Form 4
2026-07-01Harris Stayce D.directorAward / grant3839,063Form 4
2026-04-01Joyce David LeondirectorAward / grant4659,604Form 4
2026-04-01Bradway Robert AdirectorAward / grant42815,877Form 4
2026-04-01TILDEN BRADLEY DdirectorAward / grant404853Form 4
2026-04-01Doughtie Lynne MdirectorAward / grant2415,631Form 4
2026-04-01JOHRI AKHILdirectorAward / grant42811,319Form 4
2026-04-01GOOD LYNN JdirectorAward / grant42816,973Form 4
2026-04-01Gitlin David L.directorAward / grant4047,293Form 4
2026-04-01Buckley Mortimer JdirectorAward / grant4042,552Form 4
2026-04-01Richardson John MdirectorAward / grant2416,899Form 4
2026-04-01MOLLENKOPF STEVEN MdirectorAward / grant70613,700Form 4
2026-04-01Harris Stayce D.directorAward / grant4048,680Form 4
2026-02-24Shockey Jeffrey SofficerWithheld for tax4,44423,294Form 4
2026-02-19Ortberg Robert KellydirectorWithheld for tax5,017135,928Form 4
2026-02-19Pope Stephanie FofficerWithheld for tax3,16776,539Form 4
2026-02-19Gerry Brett C.officerWithheld for tax1,44637,341Form 4
2026-02-19Amuluru Uma MofficerWithheld for tax1,23320,518Form 4
2026-02-19Parker Stephen KennethofficerWithheld for tax96841,230Form 4
2026-02-19McKenzie Howard EofficerWithheld for tax96622,209Form 4
2026-02-19Raymond David ChristopherofficerWithheld for tax96542,357Form 4
2026-02-19DEASY DANA SdirectorWithheld for tax81531,504Form 4
2026-02-19Cleary Michael JofficerWithheld for tax55723,505Form 4
2026-02-19Schmidt Ann MofficerWithheld for tax50013,477Form 4
2026-02-17Pope Stephanie FofficerWithheld for tax4,14479,706Form 4
2026-02-17Gerry Brett C.officerWithheld for tax4,00938,787Form 4
2026-02-17McKenzie Howard EofficerWithheld for tax76523,175Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Tim WalbergHousepurchase2026-06-032025-02-07$15–50K
Maria Elvira SalazarHousepurchase2026-04-212026-03-19$1–15K
Maria Elvira SalazarHousepurchase2026-04-212026-03-19$15–50K
Julia LetlowHousepurchase2026-03-122026-02-02$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2026-01-152025-12-03$1–15K
Julia LetlowHousepurchase2026-01-132024-10-23$1–15K
Julia LetlowHousesale2026-01-132025-07-25$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-01-122025-12-19$1–15K
David RouzerHousesale2026-01-072025-12-09$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2025-12-152025-11-12$1–15K
Valerie HoyleHousesale2025-10-102025-09-23$1–15K
Valerie HoyleHousepurchase2025-09-122024-10-29$1–15K
Jefferson ShreveHousesale2025-06-222025-05-12$50–100K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.