Issued 2026-09-16 at $42.55 · now $42.55 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, B has typically landed between $36.64 and $50.73 — a range of −13.9% to +19.2% from the issuance price $42.55.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($42.55) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where B has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $42.55 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $42.55 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $43.41 (+2.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $40.35–$46.48
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $36.64–$50.73
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-24 | −51.1% | −51.1% | +0.5% |
| 2008-09-26 | −51.0% | −51.0% | +4.5% |
| 2008-09-29 | −47.3% | −53.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-11-17 | +68.7% | −2.6% | +68.7% |
| 2016-01-19 | +66.2% | +0.0% | +66.2% |
| 2008-11-19 | +59.5% | −2.5% | +68.9% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
121 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-27 | Katz Adam J | director | Disposition | 1,930,979 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | Manner Hans-Peter | director | Disposition | 450,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | HOOK THOMAS J | director | Disposition | 416,412 | 43,599 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | Barnes Elijah Kent | director | Disposition | 233,674 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | Barnes Elijah Kent | director | Disposition | 154,300 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | Barnes Elijah Kent | director | Disposition | 146,900 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | EDWARDS DAWN N | officer | Disposition | 93,479 | 7,778 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | Barnes Elijah Kent | director | Disposition | 45,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | HOOK THOMAS J | director | Disposition | 43,599 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | STREICH JULIE K | director | Disposition | 38,938 | 25,032 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | Barnes Elijah Kent | director | Disposition | 36,990 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | Barnes Elijah Kent | director | Disposition | 36,586 | 3,968 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | Knoll Jay B | officer | Disposition | 26,634 | 18,240 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | STREICH JULIE K | director | Disposition | 25,032 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | REASON IAN MALCOLM | officer | Disposition | 24,328 | 10,207 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | Sohovich JoAnna | director | Disposition | 22,294 | 3,968 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | EDWARDS DAWN N | officer | Disposition | 20,409 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | Hipple Richard J | director | Disposition | 19,627 | 3,968 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | Knoll Jay B | officer | Disposition | 18,240 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | Manner Hans-Peter | director | Disposition | 17,365 | 3,968 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | Nicolosi Anthony V. | director | Disposition | 15,116 | 3,968 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | Jones Daphne E | director | Disposition | 11,550 | 3,968 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | REASON IAN MALCOLM | officer | Disposition | 10,207 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | KEATING NEAL J. | director | Disposition | 8,878 | 3,968 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | Haussler Jakki L. | director | Disposition | 7,917 | 3,968 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | EDWARDS DAWN N | officer | Disposition | 7,800 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | EDWARDS DAWN N | officer | Disposition | 7,778 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | Ingianni Troy W | officer | Disposition | 6,831 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | Katz Adam J | director | Disposition | 4,602 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | KEATING NEAL J. | director | Disposition | 3,968 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | Barnes Elijah Kent | director | Disposition | 3,968 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | Manner Hans-Peter | director | Disposition | 3,968 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | Sohovich JoAnna | director | Disposition | 3,968 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | Nicolosi Anthony V. | director | Disposition | 3,968 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | Jones Daphne E | director | Disposition | 3,968 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | Haussler Jakki L. | director | Disposition | 3,968 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | Hipple Richard J | director | Disposition | 3,968 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | Ingianni Troy W | officer | Disposition | 3,187 | 6,831 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | Barnes Elijah Kent | director | Disposition | 2,432 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | Barnes Elijah Kent | director | Disposition | 2,335 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.