Issued 2026-09-16 at $6.57 · now $6.57 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AZUL has typically landed between $5.47 and $7.39 — a range of −16.8% to +12.5% from the issuance price $6.57.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
56 overlapping 1 month windows · 2026-05-28 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6.57) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AZUL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6.57 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $6.57 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $6.17 (-6.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $5.85–$6.49
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $5.47–$7.39
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-08-13 | −21.0% | −21.0% | +0.0% |
| 2026-08-14 | −20.2% | −20.2% | +0.0% |
| 2026-08-17 | −17.7% | −18.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-06-01 | +10.7% | −6.5% | +10.7% |
| 2026-06-08 | +9.0% | +0.0% | +18.4% |
| 2026-06-09 | +7.9% | +0.0% | +17.4% |
56 overlapping windows · 2026-05-28 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
22 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | Shah Abhi Manoj | officer | Award / grant | 1,373,204 | 1,373,206 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Rodgerson John Peter | director | Award / grant | 2,452,149 | 2,452,151 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Tkacz Daniel | officer | Award / grant | 196,172 | 196,172 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Grant James Jason | officer | Award / grant | 980,860 | 980,860 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Slattery John S. | director | Award / grant | 588,516 | 588,516 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Mariano Ricardo Luiz Temer | officer | Award / grant | 98,086 | 98,086 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Zinman Jon | director | Award / grant | 980,860 | 980,860 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | NEELEMAN DAVID | director | Award / grant | 1,294,735 | 3,764,246 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Garcia Antonio Carlos | officer | Award / grant | 725,836 | 725,836 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Goncalves da Cruz Andre | officer | Award / grant | 255,024 | 255,024 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | NEELEMAN DAVID | director | Option exercise | 2,432,482 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | NEELEMAN DAVID | director | Option exercise | 36,856 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | NEELEMAN DAVID | director | Award / grant | 36,856 | 36,856 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | NEELEMAN DAVID | director | Option exercise | 36,856 | 2,469,511 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | NEELEMAN DAVID | director | Option exercise | 2,432,482 | 2,432,655 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | NEELEMAN DAVID | director | Option exercise | 2,432,482 | 2,432,655 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | NEELEMAN DAVID | director | Option exercise | 36,856 | 2,469,511 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-26 | NEELEMAN DAVID | director | Gift | 182,436,172,596 | 25,958,221 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-26 | NEELEMAN DAVID | director | Award / grant | 547,308,517,788 | 547,308,517,788 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-26 | NEELEMAN DAVID | director | Option exercise | 182,436,172,596 | 364,872,345,192 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-26 | NEELEMAN DAVID | director | Option exercise | 182,436,172,596 | 182,462,130,817 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-26 | NEELEMAN DAVID | director | Option exercise | 182,436,172,596 | 182,462,130,817 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.