Issued 2026-09-16 at $33.21 · now $33.21 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AZTA has typically landed between $25.85 and $40.34 — a range of −22.2% to +21.5% from the issuance price $33.21.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($33.21) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AZTA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $33.21 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $33.21 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $32.96 (-0.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $29.75–$36.16
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $25.85–$40.34
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-10-21 | −64.1% | −64.1% | +0.0% |
| 2008-10-22 | −62.9% | −62.9% | +2.6% |
| 2008-10-20 | −61.6% | −61.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-11-20 | +106.4% | +0.0% | +123.2% |
| 2008-11-19 | +90.4% | −6.9% | +107.8% |
| 2008-11-21 | +79.2% | +0.0% | +100.4% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Starr Ephraim | officer | Purchase | 335 @ $24.17 | $8K | +0.5% of holding | +13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 68,728 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Cornog William L | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $16.38 | $164K | +103.1% of holding | +39.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,703 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Marotta John | director | Sale | 316 @ $29.41 | $9K | −0.3% of holding | +5.2% | −29.7% | 105,980 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | Lin Lawrence Y. | officer | Purchase | 2,500 @ $27.96 | $70K | +5.7% of holding | +2.1% | −2.3% | 46,013 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-03 | Hughes Violetta | officer | Sale | 317 @ $52.97 | $17K | −3.2% of holding | −18.9% | −54.0% | 9,603 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-31 | Zhou Ginger | officer | Purchase | 417 @ $45.88 | $19K | +1.5% of holding | −19.9% | −45.5% | 27,916 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
56 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Bello Erik J. | officer | Award / grant | 4,586 | 4,586 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Starr Ephraim | officer | Award / grant | 15,272 | 84,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Madaus Martin D | director | Award / grant | 36,653 | 44,058 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | MARTIN WILLIAM E. III | officer | Award / grant | 15,272 | 33,062 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Pirogova Olga | officer | Award / grant | 15,272 | 47,225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Lin Lawrence Y. | officer | Award / grant | 30,544 | 110,199 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | Pirogova Olga | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,085 | 31,953 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Starr Ephraim | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,621 | 68,393 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | MARTIN WILLIAM E. III | officer | Award / grant | 17,790 | 17,790 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-06 | Nova Tina Susan | director | Award / grant | 5,663 | 15,772 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | Casal Frank | director | Award / grant | 7,243 | 21,803 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | McLaughlin Erica | director | Award / grant | 5,663 | 22,521 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | Doshi Dipal | director | Award / grant | 5,663 | 9,703 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | Koffey Quentin | director | Award / grant | 5,663 | 10,698 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | Madaus Martin D | director | Award / grant | 5,663 | 9,703 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | Madaus Martin D | director | Award / grant | 5,663 | 9,703 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | Cornog William L | director | Award / grant | 5,663 | 5,663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | Cornog William L | director | Award / grant | 5,663 | 5,663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | Davis Robyn C | director | Award / grant | 5,663 | 23,662 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | Davis Robyn C | director | Award / grant | 5,663 | 23,662 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-24 | Pirogova Olga | officer | Award / grant | 16,303 | 33,038 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-24 | Zhou Ginger | officer | Award / grant | 13,042 | 38,755 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-24 | Marotta John | director | Award / grant | 122,269 | 217,269 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-24 | Starr Ephraim | officer | Award / grant | 34,235 | 72,014 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-24 | Lin Lawrence Y. | officer | Award / grant | 36,681 | 79,655 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | Marotta John | director | Withheld for tax | 10,980 | 95,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | Lin Lawrence Y. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,039 | 42,974 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | Pirogova Olga | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,553 | 16,735 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | Zhou Ginger | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,118 | 25,713 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-12 | Pirogova Olga | officer | Disposition | 1,085 | 18,288 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-12 | Zhou Ginger | officer | Disposition | 1,085 | 26,831 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-02 | Marotta John | director | Award / grant | 1,000 | 107,296 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-30 | Malus Alan J | director | Award / grant | 12,000 | 17,035 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-20 | Cornog William L | director | Award / grant | 2,748 | 21,755 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-19 | Cornog William L | director | Award / grant | 4,152 | 19,007 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-16 | Cornog William L | director | Award / grant | 100 | 14,855 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Starr Ephraim | officer | Award / grant | 37,779 | 37,779 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-09 | Lin Lawrence Y. | officer | Award / grant | 4,000 | 43,513 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-09 | Marotta John | director | Award / grant | 1,796 | 106,296 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-08 | Marotta John | director | Award / grant | 3,638 | 102,658 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.