AZOAutoZone, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retailas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $2849.04 · now $2849.04 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AZO has typically landed between $2568.34 and $3153.53 — a range of −9.9% to +10.7% from the issuance price $2849.04.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2849.04) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AZO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2,849 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$2,568worst · -9.9%$3,154best · +10.7%
  • now $2,849 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2,880 (+1.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2,759–$3,002
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2,568–$3,154
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-20−32.7%−32.7%+6.1%
2020-02-21−32.3%−32.3%+7.5%
2008-09-10−27.9%−27.9%+1.1%
3 best
2008-11-20+44.4%+0.0%+52.4%
2008-11-21+40.4%+0.0%+46.9%
2008-11-19+39.6%−5.5%+44.1%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$48.3B
market cap
$145.45
EPS (TTM)
20.3
P/E (TTM)
2026-09-22
next earnings
Revenue$18.9B
'20'25
Net income$2.5B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.8B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr13.2%
'20'25
ROE · by yr-73.2%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr-3.60
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $2,849$2,693$4,956
  • DCF (intrinsic)$4,725
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$3,465
  • Analyst target · range $3,200–$4,800$3,909
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$2,849

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−0.0%
n=18
Feb
79%
+2.6%
n=19
Mar
58%
+3.0%
n=19
Apr
58%
+2.4%
n=19
May
37%
−1.8%
n=19
Jun
63%
+1.8%
n=19
Jul
68%
+2.4%
n=19
Aug
42%
+0.4%
n=19
Sep
63%
+1.2%
n=19
Oct
56%
+0.9%
n=18
Nov
89%
+4.3%
n=18
Dec
67%
+2.6%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$4K$3K2026-08-07: 1 insider sale, $4.5M — LeRiche Dennis W.2026-05-29: 1 insider purchase, $493K — Hannasch Brian2026-04-10: 1 insider sale, $174K — GRAVES EARL G JR2026-01-23: 1 insider sale, $21.9M — Smith Richard Craig2026-01-16: 1 insider sale, $11.2M — Smith Richard Craig2026-01-02: 3 insider sales, $1.1M — GRAVES EARL G JR, MRKONIC GEORGE R JR …2025-12-22: 1 insider purchase, $493K — GEORGE MICHAEL A2025-12-18: 1 insider purchase, $499K — Hannasch Brian2025-12-10: 1 insider purchase, $188K — JACKSON JAMERE2025-10-27: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — Borninkhof K. Michelle2025-10-17: 10 insider sales, $10.2M — Daniele Philip B. …2025-09-24: 18 insider sales, $11.9M — Murphy John Scott …2025-09: 18 open-market sales, $11.9M2025-10: 11 open-market sales, $11.3M2025-12: 3 open-market purchases, $1.2M2026-01: 5 open-market sales, $34.2M2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $174K2026-05: 1 open-market purchase, $493K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $4.5M↑ buys↓ salesofficer LeRiche Dennis W. — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Hannasch Brian — Purchase on 2026-05-29, filed same daydirector GRAVES EARL G JR — Sale on 2026-04-10, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Smith Richard Craig — Sale on 2026-01-23, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Smith Richard Craig — Sale on 2026-01-16, filed 4 days after the tradedirector GRAVES EARL G JR — Sale on 2026-01-02, filed 3 days after the tradedirector MRKONIC GEORGE R JR — Sale on 2026-01-02, filed 3 days after the tradedirector MRKONIC GEORGE R JR — Sale on 2026-01-02, filed 3 days after the tradedirector GEORGE MICHAEL A — Purchase on 2025-12-22, filed same daydirector Hannasch Brian — Purchase on 2025-12-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector JACKSON JAMERE — Purchase on 2025-12-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Borninkhof K. Michelle — Sale on 2025-10-27, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Daniele Philip B. — Sale on 2025-10-17, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Daniele Philip B. — Sale on 2025-10-17, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Daniele Philip B. — Sale on 2025-10-17, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Daniele Philip B. — Sale on 2025-10-17, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Daniele Philip B. — Sale on 2025-10-17, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Daniele Philip B. — Sale on 2025-10-17, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Daniele Philip B. — Sale on 2025-10-17, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Daniele Philip B. — Sale on 2025-10-17, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Daniele Philip B. — Sale on 2025-10-17, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Daniele Philip B. — Sale on 2025-10-17, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Murphy John Scott — Sale on 2025-09-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Murphy John Scott — Sale on 2025-09-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Murphy John Scott — Sale on 2025-09-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Murphy John Scott — Sale on 2025-09-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Murphy John Scott — Sale on 2025-09-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Murphy John Scott — Sale on 2025-09-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Murphy John Scott — Sale on 2025-09-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Murphy John Scott — Sale on 2025-09-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Murphy John Scott — Sale on 2025-09-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Murphy John Scott — Sale on 2025-09-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Murphy John Scott — Sale on 2025-09-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Murphy John Scott — Sale on 2025-09-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Murphy John Scott — Sale on 2025-09-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Murphy John Scott — Sale on 2025-09-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Murphy John Scott — Sale on 2025-09-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Murphy John Scott — Sale on 2025-09-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Murphy John Scott — Sale on 2025-09-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Murphy John Scott — Sale on 2025-09-24, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-07LeRiche Dennis W.officerSale1,455 @ $3100.00$4.5M−76.7% of holding−4.7%not yet — horizon still open441Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-29Hannasch BriandirectorPurchase165 @ $2987.00$493K+15.6% of holding+9.9%not yet — horizon still open1,219Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-10GRAVES EARL G JRdirectorSale50 @ $3478.72$174K−1.0% of holding−8.9%not yet — horizon still open4,837Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-23Smith Richard CraigofficerSale5,910 @ $3700.00$21.9M−69.2% of holding+2.6%−24.7%2,627Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-16Smith Richard CraigofficerSale3,190 @ $3500.00$11.2M−54.8% of holding+7.1%−23.2%2,627Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-02GRAVES EARL G JRdirectorSale250 @ $3295.00$824K−4.9% of holding+10.2%−17.0%4,887Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-01-02MRKONIC GEORGE R JRdirectorSale96 @ $3341.97$321K−2.6% of holding+10.2%−17.0%3,564Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-01-02MRKONIC GEORGE R JRdirectorSale1 @ $3344.57$3K−0.0% of holding+10.2%−17.0%3,660Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-22GEORGE MICHAEL AdirectorPurchase145 @ $3398.13$493K+34.4% of holding+7.7%−18.2%566Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-18Hannasch BriandirectorPurchase147 @ $3393.09$499K+18.0% of holding+5.5%−20.4%962Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-10JACKSON JAMEREdirectorPurchase55 @ $3413.50$188K+12.7% of holding+1.6%−17.4%488Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-27Borninkhof K. MichelleofficerSale300 @ $3775.00$1.1M−41.9% of holding+5.0%−12.1%416Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-17Daniele Philip B.officerSale454 @ $4021.71$1.8M−89.3% of holding−4.5%−17.1%55Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-10-17Daniele Philip B.officerSale428 @ $4020.35$1.7M−45.7% of holding−4.5%−17.1%509Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-10-17Daniele Philip B.officerSale351 @ $4022.77$1.4M−27.3% of holding−4.5%−17.1%937Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-10-17Daniele Philip B.officerSale321 @ $4015.27$1.3M−20.0% of holding−4.5%−17.1%1,288Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-10-17Daniele Philip B.officerSale283 @ $4016.53$1.1M−15.0% of holding−4.5%−17.1%1,609Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-10-17Daniele Philip B.officerSale225 @ $4026.56$906K−10.6% of holding−4.5%−17.1%1,892Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-10-17Daniele Philip B.officerSale207 @ $4018.18$832K−8.9% of holding−4.5%−17.1%2,117Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-10-17Daniele Philip B.officerSale136 @ $4028.40$548K−5.5% of holding−4.5%−17.1%2,324Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-10-17Daniele Philip B.officerSale92 @ $4025.10$370K−3.6% of holding−4.5%−17.1%2,460Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-10-17Daniele Philip B.officerSale36 @ $4023.45$145K−1.4% of holding−4.5%−17.1%2,552Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-24Murphy John ScottofficerSale313 @ $4208.03$1.3M−20.1% of holding−9.4%−16.8%1,244Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-24Murphy John ScottofficerSale300 @ $4105.55$1.2M−16.2% of holding−9.4%−16.8%1,557Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-24Murphy John ScottofficerSale200 @ $4220.22$844K−6.1% of holding−9.4%−16.8%3,057Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-24Murphy John ScottofficerSale200 @ $4218.95$844K−6.5% of holding−9.4%−16.8%2,857Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-24Murphy John ScottofficerSale200 @ $4197.16$839K−7.0% of holding−9.4%−16.8%2,657Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-24Murphy John ScottofficerSale200 @ $4193.64$839K−7.5% of holding−9.4%−16.8%2,457Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-24Murphy John ScottofficerSale200 @ $4175.20$835K−8.1% of holding−9.4%−16.8%2,257Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-24Murphy John ScottofficerSale200 @ $4130.01$826K−8.9% of holding−9.4%−16.8%2,057Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-24Murphy John ScottofficerSale200 @ $4088.44$818K−9.7% of holding−9.4%−16.8%1,857Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-24Murphy John ScottofficerSale192 @ $4222.85$811K−5.6% of holding−9.4%−16.8%3,257Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-24Murphy John ScottofficerSale182 @ $4205.01$765K−5.0% of holding−9.4%−16.8%3,449Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-24Murphy John ScottofficerSale120 @ $4109.26$493K−3.2% of holding−9.4%−16.8%3,631Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-24Murphy John ScottofficerSale114 @ $4228.01$482K−2.9% of holding−9.4%−16.8%3,751Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-24Murphy John ScottofficerSale107 @ $4182.01$447K−2.7% of holding−9.4%−16.8%3,865Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-24Murphy John ScottofficerSale60 @ $4168.20$250K−1.5% of holding−9.4%−16.8%3,972Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-24Murphy John ScottofficerSale34 @ $4183.83$142K−0.8% of holding−9.4%−16.8%4,032Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-24Murphy John ScottofficerSale25 @ $4178.87$104K−0.6% of holding−9.4%−16.8%4,066Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-24Murphy John ScottofficerSale13 @ $4115.33$53K−0.3% of holding−9.4%−16.8%4,091Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-24Smith Richard CraigofficerSale3,000 @ $3875.90$11.6M−50.6% of holding+5.3%−12.9%2,925Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-20Borninkhof K. MichelleofficerSale550 @ $3595.80$2.0M−57.5% of holding−2.6%−20.4%406Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-20Borninkhof K. MichelleofficerSale200 @ $3600.80$720K−17.3% of holding−2.6%−20.4%956Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-10RHODES WILLIAM C IIIdirectorSale4,370 @ $3713.67$16.2M−33.8% of holding−3.9%−19.7%8,546Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-10RHODES WILLIAM C IIIdirectorSale2,523 @ $3705.48$9.3M−13.3% of holding−3.9%−19.7%16,409Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-10RHODES WILLIAM C IIIdirectorSale2,464 @ $3708.63$9.1M−11.5% of holding−3.9%−19.7%18,932Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-10RHODES WILLIAM C IIIdirectorSale2,438 @ $3704.50$9.0M−10.2% of holding−3.9%−19.7%21,396Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-10RHODES WILLIAM C IIIdirectorSale2,215 @ $3702.54$8.2M−8.5% of holding−3.9%−19.7%23,834Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-10RHODES WILLIAM C IIIdirectorSale2,008 @ $3709.69$7.4M−7.2% of holding−3.9%−19.7%26,049Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-10RHODES WILLIAM C IIIdirectorSale1,926 @ $3707.64$7.1M−6.4% of holding−3.9%−19.7%28,057Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-10RHODES WILLIAM C IIIdirectorSale1,914 @ $3703.47$7.1M−6.0% of holding−3.9%−19.7%29,983Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-10RHODES WILLIAM C IIIdirectorSale1,671 @ $3718.43$6.2M−5.0% of holding−3.9%−19.7%31,897Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-10RHODES WILLIAM C IIIdirectorSale1,149 @ $3700.78$4.3M−3.3% of holding−3.9%−19.7%33,568Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-10RHODES WILLIAM C IIIdirectorSale1,114 @ $3706.57$4.1M−3.1% of holding−3.9%−19.7%34,717Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-10RHODES WILLIAM C IIIdirectorSale958 @ $3716.38$3.6M−2.6% of holding−3.9%−19.7%35,831Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-10RHODES WILLIAM C IIIdirectorSale730 @ $3715.02$2.7M−1.9% of holding−3.9%−19.7%36,789Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-10RHODES WILLIAM C IIIdirectorSale708 @ $3712.94$2.6M−1.9% of holding−3.9%−19.7%37,519Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-10RHODES WILLIAM C IIIdirectorSale537 @ $3712.05$2.0M−1.4% of holding−3.9%−19.7%38,227Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-10RHODES WILLIAM C IIIdirectorSale329 @ $3719.50$1.2M−0.8% of holding−3.9%−19.7%38,764Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-10RHODES WILLIAM C IIIdirectorSale317 @ $3710.67$1.2M−0.8% of holding−3.9%−19.7%39,093Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

157 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-28Jaycox Kenneth EofficerAward / grant1,6881,703Form 4
2026-08-07LeRiche Dennis W.officerOption exercise1,4551,896Form 4
2026-08-07LeRiche Dennis W.officerOption exercise1,4550Form 4
2026-07-13McCullough Mary DeniseofficerGift1137Form 4
2026-07-10Sharpley Grace OriansofficerAward / grant300300Form 4
2026-03-31Daniele Philip B.officerAward / grant1082Form 4
2026-03-31BEDSOLE JENNA M.officerAward / grant469Form 4
2026-03-31Murphy John ScottofficerAward / grant41,259Form 4
2026-03-31Borninkhof K. MichelleofficerAward / grant3426Form 4
2026-03-31JACKSON JAMEREdirectorAward / grant1494Form 4
2026-03-31Jaycox Kenneth EofficerAward / grant114Form 4
2026-03-31Daniele Philip B.officerAward / grant284Form 4
2026-03-31BEDSOLE JENNA M.officerAward / grant170Form 4
2026-03-31Borninkhof K. MichelleofficerAward / grant1427Form 4
2026-03-31Murphy John ScottofficerAward / grant11,260Form 4
2026-01-23Smith Richard CraigofficerOption exercise5,9108,537Form 4
2026-01-23Smith Richard CraigofficerOption exercise5,9100Form 4
2026-01-16Smith Richard CraigofficerOption exercise3,1905,817Form 4
2026-01-16Smith Richard CraigofficerOption exercise3,1900Form 4
2026-01-01GEORGE MICHAEL AdirectorAward / grant87653Form 4
2026-01-01McDonough ClairedirectorAward / grant87143Form 4
2026-01-01GRAVES EARL G JRdirectorAward / grant885,137Form 4
2026-01-01RHODES WILLIAM C IIIdirectorAward / grant15610,202Form 4
2026-01-01MRKONIC GEORGE R JRdirectorAward / grant943,661Form 4
2026-01-01Spas Montesinos ConstantinodirectorAward / grant87132Form 4
2026-01-01KING GALE V.directorAward / grant831,336Form 4
2026-01-01GOODSPEED LINDAdirectorAward / grant912,987Form 4
2026-01-01SOLTAU JILL A.directorAward / grant831,254Form 4
2026-01-01Hannasch BriandirectorAward / grant931,054Form 4
2025-12-31Daniele Philip B.officerAward / grant1369Form 4
2025-12-31Murphy John ScottofficerAward / grant51,253Form 4
2025-12-31BEDSOLE JENNA M.officerAward / grant463Form 4
2025-12-31LeRiche Dennis W.officerAward / grant3435Form 4
2025-12-31Borninkhof K. MichelleofficerAward / grant3421Form 4
2025-12-31Jaycox Kenneth EofficerAward / grant211Form 4
2025-12-31JACKSON JAMEREdirectorAward / grant2490Form 4
2025-12-31BEDSOLE JENNA M.officerAward / grant164Form 4
2025-12-31Borninkhof K. MichelleofficerAward / grant1422Form 4
2025-12-31Daniele Philip B.officerAward / grant271Form 4
2025-12-31Jaycox Kenneth EofficerAward / grant112Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-06-082026-05-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-30$1–15K
Markwayne MullinSenatesale2026-03-102026-02-25$50–100K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-24$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-02-132026-01-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-01-122025-12-24$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.