AYIAcuity Brands, Inc.as of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $296.96 · now $296.96 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AYI has typically landed between $257.18 and $340.27 — a range of −13.4% to +14.6% from the issuance price $296.96.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($296.96) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AYI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $296.96 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$257.18worst · -13.4%$340.27best · +14.6%
  • now $296.96 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $302.82 (+2.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $283.71–$321.92
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $257.18–$340.27
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−38.6%−38.6%+0.0%
2020-02-18−36.9%−36.9%+0.0%
2020-02-20−33.9%−36.5%+0.0%
3 best
2009-04-08+44.5%+0.0%+45.5%
2021-03-04+40.4%+0.0%+40.4%
2008-12-01+38.4%+0.0%+38.4%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−0.9%
n=18
Feb
58%
+0.1%
n=19
Mar
47%
+0.2%
n=19
Apr
53%
+1.1%
n=19
May
58%
+0.2%
n=19
Jun
58%
+2.6%
n=19
Jul
63%
+2.6%
n=19
Aug
58%
+1.5%
n=19
Sep
42%
−1.3%
n=19
Oct
56%
+3.8%
n=18
Nov
83%
+4.4%
n=18
Dec
72%
+2.8%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$376$2572026-09-01: 1 insider sale, $659K — HOLCOM KAREN J2026-07-02: 1 insider sale, $439K — GOLDMAN BARRY R2026-06-01: 1 insider sale, $629K — HOLCOM KAREN J2026-04-30: 1 insider purchase, $58K — Leibman Maya2026-04-08: 1 insider purchase, $283K — O'Shaughnessy Laura2026-01-28: 1 insider sale, $1.5M — HOLCOM KAREN J2025-10-28: 7 insider sales, $1.6M — GOLDMAN BARRY R …2025-10-24: 2 insider sales, $1.7M — GOLDMAN BARRY R …2025-10: 9 open-market sales, $3.4M2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $1.5M2026-04: 2 open-market purchases, $341K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $629K2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $439K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $659K↑ buys↓ salesofficer HOLCOM KAREN J — Sale on 2026-09-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer GOLDMAN BARRY R — Sale on 2026-07-02, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer HOLCOM KAREN J — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Leibman Maya — Purchase on 2026-04-30, filed 4 days after the tradedirector O'Shaughnessy Laura — Purchase on 2026-04-08, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer HOLCOM KAREN J — Sale on 2026-01-28, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer GOLDMAN BARRY R — Sale on 2025-10-28, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer GOLDMAN BARRY R — Sale on 2025-10-28, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer GOLDMAN BARRY R — Sale on 2025-10-28, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer GOLDMAN BARRY R — Sale on 2025-10-28, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer GOLDMAN BARRY R — Sale on 2025-10-28, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer GOLDMAN BARRY R — Sale on 2025-10-28, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer GOLDMAN BARRY R — Sale on 2025-10-28, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer GOLDMAN BARRY R — Sale on 2025-10-24, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer GOLDMAN BARRY R — Sale on 2025-10-24, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01HOLCOM KAREN JofficerSale2,000 @ $329.62$659K−10.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open17,447Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-02GOLDMAN BARRY RofficerSale1,200 @ $365.65$439K−19.8% of holding−6.0%not yet — horizon still open4,856Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-01HOLCOM KAREN JofficerSale2,076 @ $303.14$629K−9.6% of holding+21.1%not yet — horizon still open19,447Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-30Leibman MayadirectorPurchase200 @ $288.83$58K+100.0% of holding+0.4%not yet — horizon still open400Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-08O'Shaughnessy LauradirectorPurchase1,000 @ $282.98$283K+47.4% of holding−3.5%not yet — horizon still open3,111Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-28HOLCOM KAREN JofficerSale4,974 @ $309.23$1.5M−18.8% of holding−2.0%+4.0%21,523Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-28GOLDMAN BARRY RofficerSale1,839 @ $364.94$671K−20.1% of holding+1.9%−25.3%7,321Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-28GOLDMAN BARRY RofficerSale1,007 @ $362.80$365K−9.5% of holding+1.9%−25.3%9,538Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-28GOLDMAN BARRY RofficerSale493 @ $368.49$182K−7.3% of holding+1.9%−25.3%6,256Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-28GOLDMAN BARRY RofficerSale470 @ $365.75$172K−6.4% of holding+1.9%−25.3%6,851Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-28GOLDMAN BARRY RofficerSale378 @ $363.79$138K−4.0% of holding+1.9%−25.3%9,160Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-28GOLDMAN BARRY RofficerSale200 @ $370.23$74K−3.2% of holding+1.9%−25.3%6,056Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-28GOLDMAN BARRY RofficerSale102 @ $366.65$37K−1.5% of holding+1.9%−25.3%6,749Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-24GOLDMAN BARRY RofficerSale2,848 @ $368.32$1.0M−21.3% of holding−2.3%−28.2%10,545Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-10-24GOLDMAN BARRY RofficerSale1,839 @ $367.54$676K−12.1% of holding−2.3%−28.2%13,393Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-07-01GOLDMAN BARRY RofficerSale2,325 @ $298.64$694K−21.6% of holding−0.7%+7.3%8,438Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-01GOLDMAN BARRY RofficerSale1,800 @ $297.87$536K−21.3% of holding−0.7%+7.3%6,638Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-27HOLCOM KAREN JofficerSale6,000 @ $301.04$1.8M−24.3% of holding−0.8%+10.3%18,696Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

36 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-01-28HOLCOM KAREN JofficerOption exercise89726,497Form 4
2026-01-28HOLCOM KAREN JofficerOption exercise8970Form 4
2026-01-21HANCE JAMES H JRdirectorAward / grant54618,618Form 4
2026-01-21Battle W. PatrickdirectorAward / grant546546Form 4
2026-01-21DILLARD GEORGE DOUGLAS JRdirectorAward / grant546546Form 4
2026-01-21O'Shaughnessy LauradirectorAward / grant546546Form 4
2026-01-21Sachleben MarkdirectorAward / grant546546Form 4
2026-01-21Leibman MayadirectorAward / grant546546Form 4
2026-01-21AVEDON MARCIA JdirectorAward / grant546546Form 4
2026-01-21Bender Michael JdirectorAward / grant546546Form 4
2025-10-24ASHE NEILdirectorWithheld for tax22,41172,202Form 4
2025-10-24HOLCOM KAREN JofficerWithheld for tax5,82425,600Form 4
2025-10-24GOLDMAN BARRY RofficerWithheld for tax3,71210,545Form 4
2025-10-24MILLS DIANNE SofficerWithheld for tax2,88615,293Form 4
2025-10-24GOLDMAN BARRY RofficerOption exercise2,93615,232Form 4
2025-10-24GOLDMAN BARRY RofficerOption exercise1,75112,296Form 4
2025-10-24HOLCOM KAREN JofficerAward / grant10,43231,424Form 4
2025-10-24GOLDMAN BARRY RofficerOption exercise1,7510Form 4
2025-10-24GOLDMAN BARRY RofficerOption exercise2,9360Form 4
2025-10-24ASHE NEILdirectorAward / grant43,47494,613Form 4
2025-10-24GOLDMAN BARRY RofficerAward / grant6,32214,257Form 4
2025-10-24MILLS DIANNE SofficerAward / grant6,32218,179Form 4
2025-10-23HOLCOM KAREN JofficerAward / grant2,29620,992Form 4
2025-10-23ASHE NEILdirectorAward / grant6,75151,139Form 4
2025-10-23GOLDMAN BARRY RofficerAward / grant1,2977,935Form 4
2025-07-01GOLDMAN BARRY RofficerOption exercise2,32510,763Form 4
2025-07-01GOLDMAN BARRY RofficerOption exercise2,3250Form 4
2025-01-22HANCE JAMES H JRdirectorAward / grant53418,072Form 4
2025-01-22Bender Michael JdirectorAward / grant534534Form 4
2025-01-22Leibman MayadirectorAward / grant534534Form 4
2025-01-22O'Shaughnessy LauradirectorAward / grant534534Form 4
2025-01-22Sachleben MarkdirectorAward / grant3212,186Form 4
2025-01-22Sachleben MarkdirectorAward / grant534534Form 4
2025-01-22DILLARD GEORGE DOUGLAS JRdirectorAward / grant534534Form 4
2025-01-22Battle W. PatrickdirectorAward / grant534534Form 4
2025-01-22AVEDON MARCIA JdirectorAward / grant534534Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2021-11-092021-10-07$1–15K
Greg GianforteSenatesale2020-05-072020-04-29$100–250K
Donna ShalalaHousesale2020-04-272019-04-03$1–15K
Donna ShalalaHousesale2020-04-272019-04-16$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2019-07-112019-06-03$1–15K
Greg GianforteSenatepurchase2019-04-262019-04-17$50–100K
Greg GianforteSenatepurchase2019-02-022018-12-24$50–100K
Greg GianforteSenatesale2018-12-112018-11-21$50–100K
Josh GottheimerHousesale2018-08-132017-07-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2018-06-082018-05-08$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2018-05-102018-04-03$1–15K
Susan M. CollinsSenatesale2018-02-082018-01-31$15–50K
Greg GianforteSenatepurchase2018-02-082018-01-29$100–250K
Greg GianforteSenatesale2018-01-042017-12-29$100–250K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.