AXTIAXT, Inc.Technology · Semiconductorsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $64.30 · now $67.75 (2026-09-17, +5.4% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AXTI has typically landed between $42.36 and $109.52 — a range of −34.1% to +70.3% from the issuance price $64.30.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,002 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($64.30) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AXTI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $64.3 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$42.36worst · -34.1%$109.52best · +70.3%
  • now $67.75 (+5.4%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $64.6 (+0.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $53.42–$75.78
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $42.36–$109.52
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-17. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-11−61.0%−61.0%+0.0%
2008-09-12−59.7%−60.0%+0.0%
2026-06-15−58.8%−58.8%+0.0%
3 best
2026-01-29+182.8%+0.0%+182.8%
2025-10-10+159.1%+0.0%+159.1%
2026-04-06+156.1%+0.0%+156.1%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-17 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+1.9%
n=20
Feb
45%
+6.6%
n=20
Mar
20%
−1.8%
n=20
Apr
30%
+1.1%
n=20
May
55%
+7.6%
n=20
Jun
45%
+0.0%
n=20
Jul
65%
+7.9%
n=20
Aug
30%
−3.3%
n=20
Sep
60%
+1.7%
n=20
Oct
35%
+1.0%
n=20
Nov
55%
+2.9%
n=20
Dec
60%
+10.5%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$141$22026-08-17: 1 insider sale, $384K — LEBLANC LEONARD J2026-08-07: 1 insider sale, $177K — LEBLANC LEONARD J2026-06-15: 2 insider sales, $1.6M — CHANG DAVID C, CHEN JESSE2026-06-12: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — CHEN JESSE2026-06-11: 1 insider sale, $797K — CHEN JESSE2026-06-10: 2 insider sales, $825K — CHEN JESSE, LEBLANC LEONARD J2026-06-09: 1 insider sale, $140K — CHEN JESSE2026-06-08: 1 insider sale, $564K — CHEN JESSE2026-06-04: 1 insider sale, $664K — CHEN JESSE2026-06-03: 1 insider sale, $445K — CHEN JESSE2026-06-02: 2 insider sales, $14.2M — YOUNG MORRIS S, CHEN JESSE2026-06-01: 2 insider sales, $8.7M — YOUNG MORRIS S, CHEN JESSE2026-03-13: 3 insider sales, $6.4M — FISCHER GARY L, YOUNG MORRIS S, CHEN JESSE2026-03-12: 2 insider sales, $708K — FISCHER GARY L, CHEN JESSE2026-03-11: 1 insider sale, $707K — CHEN JESSE2026-03-10: 3 insider sales, $3.0M — YOUNG MORRIS S, CHANG DAVID C, CHEN JESSE2026-03-09: 2 insider sales, $5.1M — YOUNG MORRIS S, CHEN JESSE2026-03-06: 2 insider sales, $402K — YOUNG MORRIS S, CHEN JESSE2026-03-05: 2 insider sales, $1.2M — CHANG DAVID C, CHEN JESSE2026-03-04: 2 insider sales, $1.1M — CHANG DAVID C, CHEN JESSE2026-03-03: 1 insider sale, $446K — CHEN JESSE2026-03-02: 3 insider sales, $24.2M — FISCHER GARY L, YOUNG MORRIS S, CHEN JESSE2025-12-09: 1 insider sale, $371K — CHANG DAVID C2025-12-08: 1 insider sale, $463K — YOUNG MORRIS S2025-12-04: 1 insider sale, $422K — YOUNG MORRIS S2025-12-02: 1 insider sale, $308K — CHANG DAVID C2025-11-28: 1 insider sale, $268K — CHANG DAVID C2025-11-17: 1 insider sale, $344K — YOUNG MORRIS S2025-11-13: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — FISCHER GARY L2025-11-07: 1 insider sale, $31K — LEBLANC LEONARD J2025-11-06: 1 insider sale, $201K — FISCHER GARY L2025-11-05: 2 insider sales, $1.4M — CHANG DAVID C, FISCHER GARY L2025-11-04: 1 insider sale, $224K — FISCHER GARY L2025-11-03: 1 insider sale, $692K — YOUNG MORRIS S2025-11: 9 open-market sales, $4.2M2025-12: 4 open-market sales, $1.6M2026-03: 21 open-market sales, $43.3M2026-06: 14 open-market sales, $29.2M2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $561K↑ buys↓ salesdirector LEBLANC LEONARD J — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector LEBLANC LEONARD J — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 12 days after the tradedirector CHANG DAVID C — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector CHEN JESSE — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector CHEN JESSE — Sale on 2026-06-12, filed 3 days after the tradedirector CHEN JESSE — Sale on 2026-06-11, filed 4 days after the tradedirector CHEN JESSE — Sale on 2026-06-10, filed same daydirector LEBLANC LEONARD J — Sale on 2026-06-10, filed 70 days after the tradedirector CHEN JESSE — Sale on 2026-06-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector CHEN JESSE — Sale on 2026-06-08, filed 2 days after the tradedirector CHEN JESSE — Sale on 2026-06-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector CHEN JESSE — Sale on 2026-06-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector YOUNG MORRIS S — Sale on 2026-06-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector CHEN JESSE — Sale on 2026-06-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector YOUNG MORRIS S — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed 2 days after the tradedirector CHEN JESSE — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer FISCHER GARY L — Sale on 2026-03-13, filed 3 days after the tradedirector YOUNG MORRIS S — Sale on 2026-03-13, filed 3 days after the tradedirector CHEN JESSE — Sale on 2026-03-13, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer FISCHER GARY L — Sale on 2026-03-12, filed 4 days after the tradedirector CHEN JESSE — Sale on 2026-03-12, filed 4 days after the tradedirector CHEN JESSE — Sale on 2026-03-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector YOUNG MORRIS S — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector CHANG DAVID C — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector CHEN JESSE — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector YOUNG MORRIS S — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector CHEN JESSE — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector YOUNG MORRIS S — Sale on 2026-03-06, filed 4 days after the tradedirector CHEN JESSE — Sale on 2026-03-06, filed 4 days after the tradedirector CHANG DAVID C — Sale on 2026-03-05, filed same daydirector CHEN JESSE — Sale on 2026-03-05, filed same daydirector CHANG DAVID C — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector CHEN JESSE — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector CHEN JESSE — Sale on 2026-03-03, filed same dayofficer FISCHER GARY L — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector YOUNG MORRIS S — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector CHEN JESSE — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector CHANG DAVID C — Sale on 2025-12-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector YOUNG MORRIS S — Sale on 2025-12-08, filed 1 day after the tradedirector YOUNG MORRIS S — Sale on 2025-12-04, filed 4 days after the tradedirector CHANG DAVID C — Sale on 2025-12-02, filed same daydirector CHANG DAVID C — Sale on 2025-11-28, filed 4 days after the tradedirector YOUNG MORRIS S — Sale on 2025-11-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer FISCHER GARY L — Sale on 2025-11-13, filed same daydirector LEBLANC LEONARD J — Sale on 2025-11-07, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer FISCHER GARY L — Sale on 2025-11-06, filed same daydirector CHANG DAVID C — Sale on 2025-11-05, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer FISCHER GARY L — Sale on 2025-11-05, filed same dayofficer FISCHER GARY L — Sale on 2025-11-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector YOUNG MORRIS S — Sale on 2025-11-03, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-17LEBLANC LEONARD JdirectorSale4,000 @ $96.07$384K−3.4% of holding−30.6%not yet — horizon still open113,129Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-07LEBLANC LEONARD JdirectorSale2,000 @ $88.31$177K−1.7% of holding−20.5%not yet — horizon still open117,129Form 4 · filed 12 days after the trade
2026-06-15CHANG DAVID CdirectorSale8,333 @ $111.17$926K−11.3% of holding−58.6%not yet — horizon still open65,165Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-15CHEN JESSEdirectorSale6,172 @ $115.24$711K−10.9% of holding−58.6%not yet — horizon still open50,275Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-12CHEN JESSEdirectorSale13,000 @ $95.77$1.2M−18.7% of holding−47.1%not yet — horizon still open56,447Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-11CHEN JESSEdirectorSale9,000 @ $88.55$797K−11.5% of holding−37.0%not yet — horizon still open69,447Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-10CHEN JESSEdirectorSale9,000 @ $86.73$781K−10.3% of holding−44.4%not yet — horizon still open78,447Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-10LEBLANC LEONARD JdirectorSale500 @ $89.59$45K−0.4% of holding−44.4%not yet — horizon still open119,129Form 4 · filed 70 days after the trade
2026-06-09CHEN JESSEdirectorSale1,500 @ $93.30$140K−1.7% of holding−29.7%not yet — horizon still open87,447Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-08CHEN JESSEdirectorSale6,000 @ $94.00$564K−6.3% of holding−33.0%not yet — horizon still open88,947Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-04CHEN JESSEdirectorSale6,133 @ $108.28$664K−6.1% of holding−44.2%not yet — horizon still open94,193Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-03CHEN JESSEdirectorSale4,000 @ $111.36$445K−3.8% of holding−40.3%not yet — horizon still open100,326Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-02YOUNG MORRIS SdirectorSale123,601 @ $113.33$14.0M−5.4% of holding−47.2%not yet — horizon still open2,149,533Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-02CHEN JESSEdirectorSale2,000 @ $111.03$222K−1.9% of holding−47.2%not yet — horizon still open104,326Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-01YOUNG MORRIS SdirectorSale73,897 @ $112.39$8.3M−3.2% of holding−39.2%not yet — horizon still open2,261,328Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-01CHEN JESSEdirectorSale3,200 @ $111.56$357K−2.9% of holding−39.2%not yet — horizon still open106,326Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-13FISCHER GARY LofficerSale80,776 @ $50.64$4.1M−29.7% of holding+32.6%+1.3%191,278Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-13YOUNG MORRIS SdirectorSale37,905 @ $51.13$1.9M−1.6% of holding+32.6%+1.3%2,275,328Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-13CHEN JESSEdirectorSale8,083 @ $50.25$406K−6.9% of holding+32.6%+1.3%109,526Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-12FISCHER GARY LofficerSale8,256 @ $50.20$414K−2.9% of holding+38.9%+23.2%272,054Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-12CHEN JESSEdirectorSale6,003 @ $48.95$294K−4.9% of holding+38.9%+23.2%117,609Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-11CHEN JESSEdirectorSale15,000 @ $47.13$707K−10.8% of holding+34.8%+24.0%123,612Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-10YOUNG MORRIS SdirectorSale30,832 @ $45.60$1.4M−1.3% of holding+41.8%+42.4%2,313,233Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-10CHANG DAVID CdirectorSale20,000 @ $46.00$920K−21.6% of holding+41.8%+42.4%72,744Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-10CHEN JESSEdirectorSale14,000 @ $46.15$646K−9.2% of holding+41.8%+42.4%138,612Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09YOUNG MORRIS SdirectorSale125,893 @ $36.51$4.6M−5.1% of holding+38.0%+66.9%2,344,065Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-09CHEN JESSEdirectorSale12,452 @ $37.69$469K−7.5% of holding+38.0%+66.9%152,612Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-06YOUNG MORRIS SdirectorSale8,300 @ $39.65$329K−0.3% of holding+42.1%+75.3%2,469,958Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-06CHEN JESSEdirectorSale2,000 @ $36.63$73K−1.2% of holding+42.1%+75.3%165,064Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-05CHANG DAVID CdirectorSale20,000 @ $38.42$768K−17.7% of holding+11.2%+30.8%92,744Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-05CHEN JESSEdirectorSale11,147 @ $38.26$427K−6.3% of holding+11.2%+30.8%167,064Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-04CHANG DAVID CdirectorSale20,000 @ $38.53$771K−15.1% of holding+39.1%+33.3%112,744Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-04CHEN JESSEdirectorSale8,800 @ $38.83$342K−4.7% of holding+39.1%+33.3%178,211Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-03CHEN JESSEdirectorSale11,007 @ $40.49$446K−5.6% of holding+16.3%+21.8%187,011Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-02FISCHER GARY LofficerSale405,233 @ $41.45$16.8M−59.1% of holding+28.0%+18.5%280,310Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-02YOUNG MORRIS SdirectorSale159,536 @ $43.32$6.9M−6.0% of holding+28.0%+18.5%2,482,038Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-02CHEN JESSEdirectorSale11,320 @ $45.59$516K−5.4% of holding+28.0%+18.5%198,018Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-09CHANG DAVID CdirectorSale25,000 @ $14.84$371K−15.8% of holding+51.8%+481.9%132,744Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-08YOUNG MORRIS SdirectorSale37,160 @ $12.46$463K−1.5% of holding+102.1%+564.3%2,458,404Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-04YOUNG MORRIS SdirectorSale35,000 @ $12.05$422K−1.4% of holding+65.3%+641.6%2,495,564Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-02CHANG DAVID CdirectorSale25,000 @ $12.33$308K−13.7% of holding+42.0%+789.6%157,744Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-28CHANG DAVID CdirectorSale25,000 @ $10.72$268K−12.0% of holding+46.8%+924.2%182,744Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-17YOUNG MORRIS SdirectorSale33,130 @ $10.39$344K−1.3% of holding+19.7%+908.6%2,476,360Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-13FISCHER GARY LofficerSale101,297 @ $10.14$1.0M−21.9% of holding+40.8%+903.6%361,997Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-07LEBLANC LEONARD JdirectorSale3,637 @ $8.41$31K−3.0% of holding+56.3%+1188.5%118,875Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-06FISCHER GARY LofficerSale22,675 @ $8.87$201K−4.7% of holding+41.3%+1307.5%463,294Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-05CHANG DAVID CdirectorSale100,000 @ $8.94$894K−32.5% of holding+26.1%+1169.2%207,744Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-05FISCHER GARY LofficerSale52,515 @ $9.21$484K−9.8% of holding+26.1%+1169.2%485,969Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-04FISCHER GARY LofficerSale27,720 @ $8.09$224K−4.9% of holding+40.3%+1160.6%538,484Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-03YOUNG MORRIS SdirectorSale80,000 @ $8.65$692K−3.2% of holding+35.6%+1131.1%2,439,490Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25YOUNG MORRIS SdirectorPurchase30,000 @ $1.36$41K+1.2% of holding+25.4%+102.2%2,449,490Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

62 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-12YOUNG MORRIS SdirectorGift1,2002,148,333Form 4
2026-06-04CHEN JESSEdirectorAward / grant75494,947Form 4
2026-06-04CHANG DAVID CdirectorAward / grant75473,498Form 4
2026-06-04LEBLANC LEONARD JdirectorAward / grant754119,629Form 4
2026-06-04CHEN JESSEdirectorAward / grant75494,947Form 4
2026-06-04CHANG DAVID CdirectorAward / grant75473,498Form 4
2026-06-04LEBLANC LEONARD JdirectorAward / grant754119,629Form 4
2026-06-02YOUNG MORRIS SdirectorOption exercise11,8062,273,134Form 4
2026-06-02YOUNG MORRIS SdirectorOption exercise11,806467,046Form 4
2026-06-01YOUNG MORRIS SdirectorOption exercise73,8972,335,225Form 4
2026-06-01YOUNG MORRIS SdirectorOption exercise73,897478,852Form 4
2026-05-01YOUNG MORRIS SdirectorGift7,5002,261,328Form 4
2026-05-01YOUNG MORRIS SdirectorGift6,5002,268,828Form 4
2026-03-03YOUNG MORRIS SdirectorGift3,7802,478,258Form 4
2026-03-02YOUNG MORRIS SdirectorGift17,2002,651,574Form 4
2026-03-02YOUNG MORRIS SdirectorGift10,0002,641,574Form 4
2026-02-26FISCHER GARY LofficerOption exercise65,685503,400Form 4
2026-02-26FISCHER GARY LofficerOption exercise34,203537,603Form 4
2026-02-26FISCHER GARY LofficerOption exercise55,500593,103Form 4
2026-02-26FISCHER GARY LofficerOption exercise92,440685,543Form 4
2026-02-26FISCHER GARY LofficerOption exercise34,2030Form 4
2026-02-26FISCHER GARY LofficerOption exercise65,6850Form 4
2026-02-26FISCHER GARY LofficerOption exercise55,5000Form 4
2026-02-26FISCHER GARY LofficerOption exercise92,4400Form 4
2026-02-18FISCHER GARY LofficerAward / grant75,718437,715Form 4
2026-02-18YOUNG MORRIS SdirectorAward / grant218,1702,668,774Form 4
2025-12-09YOUNG MORRIS SdirectorGift7,8002,450,604Form 4
2025-12-04YOUNG MORRIS SdirectorOption exercise32,6802,494,040Form 4
2025-12-04YOUNG MORRIS SdirectorOption exercise17,3312,511,371Form 4
2025-12-04YOUNG MORRIS SdirectorOption exercise19,1932,530,564Form 4
2025-12-04YOUNG MORRIS SdirectorOption exercise32,680589,273Form 4
2025-12-04YOUNG MORRIS SdirectorOption exercise17,331571,942Form 4
2025-12-04YOUNG MORRIS SdirectorOption exercise19,193552,749Form 4
2025-11-21YOUNG MORRIS SdirectorGift12,0002,464,360Form 4
2025-11-21YOUNG MORRIS SdirectorGift3,0002,461,360Form 4
2025-11-14YOUNG MORRIS SdirectorOption exercise70,0002,509,490Form 4
2025-11-14YOUNG MORRIS SdirectorOption exercise70,000621,953Form 4
2025-10-31YOUNG MORRIS SdirectorGift30,0002,519,490Form 4
2025-10-28YOUNG MORRIS SdirectorAward / grant100,0002,549,490Form 4
2025-10-28YOUNG MORRIS SdirectorAward / grant100,0002,549,490Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.