Issued 2026-09-16 at $33.29 · now $33.29 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AXTA has typically landed between $28.74 and $37.70 — a range of −13.7% to +13.2% from the issuance price $33.29.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,956 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-11-12 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($33.29) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AXTA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $33.29 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $33.29 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $33.6 (+0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $31.72–$35.49
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $28.74–$37.7
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −52.9% | −52.9% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −52.4% | −52.4% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-14 | −51.4% | −51.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-05-06 | +33.9% | +0.0% | +33.9% |
| 2020-05-07 | +32.2% | +0.0% | +32.2% |
| 2020-03-23 | +31.7% | +0.0% | +36.3% |
2,956 overlapping windows · 2014-11-12 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-19 | Tufano Amy | officer | Sale | 3,194 @ $31.06 | $99K | −20.9% of holding | −4.8% | +3.8% | 12,087 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
299 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Anderson Carl Douglas II | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,485 | 90,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Anderson Carl Douglas II | officer | Option exercise | 20,657 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Anderson Carl Douglas II | officer | Option exercise | 20,657 | 99,902 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Anderson Carl Douglas II | officer | Option exercise | 20,657 | 99,902 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Anderson Carl Douglas II | officer | Option exercise | 20,657 | 99,902 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Anderson Carl Douglas II | officer | Option exercise | 20,657 | 99,902 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Massey Anthony | officer | Withheld for tax | 641 | 45,702 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Massey Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 2,071 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Massey Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 2,071 | 46,343 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Massey Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 2,071 | 46,343 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Villavarayan Chris | director | Withheld for tax | 12,053 | 230,443 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Anderson Carl Douglas II | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,125 | 79,245 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Weaver Troy D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,009 | 108,035 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Bowes Timothy Earl Joseph | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,608 | 25,817 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Awada Hadi | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,526 | 57,376 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Massey Anthony | officer | Withheld for tax | 677 | 44,272 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | SACHDEV RAKESH | director | Option exercise | 5,832 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Massey Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 2,187 | 4,375 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Weaver Troy D. | officer | Option exercise | 4,374 | 8,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Kissire Deborah J. | director | Option exercise | 5,832 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Jordan Tyrone Michael | director | Option exercise | 5,832 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Villavarayan Chris | director | Option exercise | 26,246 | 52,494 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Stein Kevin M | director | Option exercise | 5,832 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Zappone Mary Slagle | director | Option exercise | 5,832 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Smolik Samuel L. | director | Option exercise | 5,832 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | COOK WILLIAM M | director | Option exercise | 5,832 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Bowes Timothy Earl Joseph | officer | Option exercise | 3,500 | 7,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Anderson Carl Douglas II | officer | Option exercise | 6,805 | 13,610 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Awada Hadi | officer | Option exercise | 3,500 | 7,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Bertsch Jan | director | Option exercise | 5,832 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Smolik Samuel L. | director | Option exercise | 5,832 | 66,473 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Jordan Tyrone Michael | director | Option exercise | 5,832 | 29,114 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Weaver Troy D. | officer | Option exercise | 4,374 | 110,044 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Bowes Timothy Earl Joseph | officer | Option exercise | 3,500 | 27,425 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Awada Hadi | officer | Option exercise | 3,500 | 58,902 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Massey Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 2,187 | 44,949 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Zappone Mary Slagle | director | Option exercise | 5,832 | 13,453 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Stein Kevin M | director | Option exercise | 5,832 | 14,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Smolik Samuel L. | director | Option exercise | 5,832 | 66,473 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Bertsch Jan | director | Option exercise | 5,832 | 21,074 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.