AXSAXIS Capital Holdings LimitedFinancial Services · Insurance - Diversifiedas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $99.59 · now $99.59 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AXS has typically landed between $91.34 and $110.81 — a range of −8.3% to +11.3% from the issuance price $99.59.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($99.59) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AXS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $99.59 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$91.34worst · -8.3%$110.81best · +11.3%
  • now $99.59 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $100.8 (+1.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $97.06–$104.54
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $91.34–$110.81
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-13−44.3%−44.3%+0.0%
2020-02-18−43.8%−43.8%+0.0%
2020-02-21−43.5%−43.5%+0.0%
3 best
2008-11-20+54.1%+0.0%+55.8%
2008-11-21+45.3%+0.0%+50.1%
2009-03-11+39.7%+0.0%+39.7%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+0.5%
n=20
Feb
60%
+1.0%
n=20
Mar
60%
−0.1%
n=20
Apr
50%
+1.3%
n=20
May
50%
+0.9%
n=20
Jun
45%
+0.3%
n=20
Jul
60%
+0.7%
n=20
Aug
55%
+1.7%
n=20
Sep
45%
−1.0%
n=20
Oct
55%
+1.5%
n=20
Nov
55%
+2.5%
n=20
Dec
60%
+1.3%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$119$872026-05-07: 1 insider sale, $251K — SMITH HENRY B2025-11-19: 1 insider sale, $237.8M — DAVIS CHARLES A2025-08-21: 1 insider sale, $345K — SMITH HENRY B2025-08-20: 1 insider sale, $420K — Draper Daniel J2025-08-19: 1 insider sale, $211K — Draper Daniel J2025-08-15: 1 insider sale, $211K — Draper Daniel J2025-08: 4 open-market sales, $1.2M2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $237.8M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $251K↑ buys↓ salesdirector SMITH HENRY B — Sale on 2026-05-07, filed 1 day after the tradedirector DAVIS CHARLES A — Sale on 2025-11-19, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SMITH HENRY B — Sale on 2025-08-21, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Draper Daniel J — Sale on 2025-08-20, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Draper Daniel J — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed same dayofficer Draper Daniel J — Sale on 2025-08-15, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-07SMITH HENRY BdirectorSale2,542 @ $98.69$251K−5.2% of holding−4.2%not yet — horizon still open46,347Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-19DAVIS CHARLES AdirectorSale2,404,133 @ $98.90$237.8M−100.0% of holding+5.6%−11.7%0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-21SMITH HENRY BdirectorSale3,500 @ $98.67$345K−6.9% of holding−9.1%−1.6%47,295Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-20Draper Daniel JofficerSale4,305 @ $97.57$420K−20.9% of holding−6.6%−0.2%16,269Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-19Draper Daniel JofficerSale2,200 @ $96.00$211K−9.7% of holding−3.7%−0.3%20,574Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-15Draper Daniel JofficerSale2,200 @ $96.12$211K−8.8% of holding−3.5%+3.8%22,774Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-05DAVIS CHARLES AdirectorSale2,139,037 @ $93.50$200.0M−47.1% of holding+12.6%−6.3%2,404,133Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-03DAVIS CHARLES AdirectorSale2,234,636 @ $89.50$200.0M−33.0% of holding+7.5%−0.1%4,543,170Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

91 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-01Tizzio Vincent CdirectorWithheld for tax31,029179,832Form 4
2026-06-01Tizzio Vincent CdirectorWithheld for tax2,586177,246Form 4
2026-05-13Tizzio Vincent CdirectorAward / grant60,662210,861Form 4
2026-03-01Tizzio Vincent CdirectorWithheld for tax10,557159,027Form 4
2026-03-01Phillips David S.officerWithheld for tax9,511103,155Form 4
2026-03-01Tizzio Vincent CdirectorWithheld for tax8,828150,199Form 4
2026-03-01Vogt PeterofficerWithheld for tax8,768131,177Form 4
2026-03-01Phillips David S.officerWithheld for tax4,81698,339Form 4
2026-03-01Vogt PeterofficerWithheld for tax4,378126,799Form 4
2026-03-01Brooks Conrad D.officerWithheld for tax3,98373,678Form 4
2026-03-01Brooks Conrad D.officerWithheld for tax3,30370,375Form 4
2026-03-01Draper Daniel JofficerWithheld for tax2,94122,682Form 4
2026-03-01Draper Daniel JofficerWithheld for tax2,58625,623Form 4
2026-01-28Vogt PeterofficerAward / grant20,638139,945Form 4
2026-01-27Phillips David S.officerAward / grant5,85395,468Form 4
2026-01-27Bolovinos Athanasios TomofficerAward / grant2,8285,091Form 4
2026-01-27Tizzio Vincent CdirectorAward / grant37,069148,946Form 4
2026-01-27Tizzio Vincent CdirectorAward / grant20,638169,584Form 4
2026-01-27Vogt PeterofficerAward / grant13,657119,307Form 4
2026-01-27Brooks Conrad D.officerAward / grant8,94277,661Form 4
2026-01-27Phillips David S.officerAward / grant17,198112,666Form 4
2026-01-27Draper Daniel JofficerAward / grant5,50228,209Form 4
2026-01-27Draper Daniel JofficerAward / grant6,43822,707Form 4
2026-01-27Brooks Conrad D.officerAward / grant4,68268,719Form 4
2026-01-15GALANSKI STANLEY AdirectorAward / grant1,59415,022Form 4
2026-01-15Dowling Anne MelissadirectorAward / grant1,59416,140Form 4
2026-01-15Theis AxeldirectorAward / grant1,59411,778Form 4
2026-01-15SMITH HENRY BdirectorAward / grant1,59448,889Form 4
2026-01-15Yastine Barbara A.directorAward / grant1,59421,354Form 4
2026-01-15Zlatkus Lizabeth HdirectorAward / grant1,84324,525Form 4
2026-01-15Dowling Anne MelissadirectorAward / grant1,59416,140Form 4
2026-01-15GALANSKI STANLEY AdirectorAward / grant1,59415,022Form 4
2026-01-15Zlatkus Lizabeth HdirectorAward / grant1,84324,525Form 4
2026-01-15Yastine Barbara A.directorAward / grant1,59421,354Form 4
2026-01-15Theis AxeldirectorAward / grant1,59411,778Form 4
2026-01-15SMITH HENRY BdirectorAward / grant1,59448,889Form 4
2026-01-15Ramey Thomas C.directorAward / grant1,59425,989Form 4
2026-01-15Millegan MichaeldirectorAward / grant1,59412,275Form 4
2026-01-15Hardwick ElanordirectorAward / grant1,59418,379Form 4
2026-01-15DAVIS CHARLES AdirectorAward / grant2,84063,719Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.