AXRAMREP CorporationReal Estate · Real Estate - Developmentas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $22.48 · now $22.48 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AXR has typically landed between $18.49 and $28.47 — a range of −17.8% to +26.6% from the issuance price $22.48.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($22.48) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AXR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $22.48 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$18.49worst · -17.8%$28.47best · +26.6%
  • now $22.48 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $22.41 (-0.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $20.68–$24.14
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $18.49–$28.47
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2009-02-03−51.4%−51.4%+16.9%
2009-02-04−50.4%−51.0%+17.9%
2009-02-05−49.8%−53.5%+11.9%
3 best
2012-11-27+114.8%+0.0%+114.8%
2012-11-21+114.4%−1.2%+114.4%
2012-11-26+112.4%+0.0%+117.1%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
40%
−1.2%
n=20
Feb
30%
−0.9%
n=20
Mar
55%
+3.4%
n=20
Apr
30%
−3.2%
n=20
May
20%
−3.6%
n=20
Jun
55%
+1.0%
n=20
Jul
65%
+4.1%
n=20
Aug
35%
−3.7%
n=20
Sep
50%
+6.9%
n=20
Oct
40%
−2.2%
n=20
Nov
45%
+1.5%
n=20
Dec
55%
+9.6%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$28$192026-07-30: 1 insider sale, $94K — Uleau Adrienne2026-06-22: 1 insider purchase, $79K — DAHL JAMES H2026-06-02: 1 insider purchase, $40K — DAHL JAMES H2026-05-29: 2 insider purchases, $105K — DAHL JAMES H …2026-05-20: 1 insider purchase, $122K — DAHL JAMES H2026-05-13: 1 insider purchase, $29K — DAHL JAMES H2026-05-01: 1 insider purchase, $84K — DAHL JAMES H2026-04-29: 1 insider purchase, $139K — DAHL JAMES H2026-04-21: 1 insider purchase, $50K — McNaney Timothy S2026-04-20: 1 insider purchase, $41K — DAHL JAMES H2026-04-17: 1 insider purchase, $28K — DAHL JAMES H2026-03-31: 1 insider purchase, $58K — DAHL JAMES H2026-03-26: 3 insider purchases, $105K — DAHL JAMES H …2026-03-03: 1 insider purchase, $82K — DAHL JAMES H2026-02-27: 2 insider purchases, $52K — DAHL JAMES H …2026-02-26: 1 insider purchase, $128K — DAHL JAMES H2026-02-19: 2 insider purchases, $34K — DAHL JAMES H …2026-02-18: 2 insider purchases, $101K — DAHL JAMES H …2026-02-17: 2 insider purchases, $170K — DAHL JAMES H …2026-02-12: 2 insider purchases, $103K — DAHL JAMES H …2026-02-11: 2 insider purchases, $70K — DAHL JAMES H …2026-02-10: 2 insider purchases, $132K — DAHL JAMES H …2026-02: 15 open-market purchases, $792K2026-03: 5 open-market purchases, $245K2026-04: 4 open-market purchases, $257K2026-05: 5 open-market purchases, $339K2026-06: 2 open-market purchases, $119K2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $94K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Uleau Adrienne — Sale on 2026-07-30, filed same daytenPercentOwner DAHL JAMES H — Purchase on 2026-06-22, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner DAHL JAMES H — Purchase on 2026-06-02, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner DAHL JAMES H — Purchase on 2026-05-29, filed same daytenPercentOwner DAHL JAMES H — Purchase on 2026-05-29, filed same daytenPercentOwner DAHL JAMES H — Purchase on 2026-05-20, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner DAHL JAMES H — Purchase on 2026-05-13, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner DAHL JAMES H — Purchase on 2026-05-01, filed same daytenPercentOwner DAHL JAMES H — Purchase on 2026-04-29, filed 2 days after the tradedirector McNaney Timothy S — Purchase on 2026-04-21, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner DAHL JAMES H — Purchase on 2026-04-20, filed same daytenPercentOwner DAHL JAMES H — Purchase on 2026-04-17, filed 3 days after the tradetenPercentOwner DAHL JAMES H — Purchase on 2026-03-31, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner DAHL JAMES H — Purchase on 2026-03-26, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner DAHL JAMES H — Purchase on 2026-03-26, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner DAHL JAMES H — Purchase on 2026-03-26, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner DAHL JAMES H — Purchase on 2026-03-03, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner DAHL JAMES H — Purchase on 2026-02-27, filed same daytenPercentOwner DAHL JAMES H — Purchase on 2026-02-27, filed same daytenPercentOwner DAHL JAMES H — Purchase on 2026-02-26, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner DAHL JAMES H — Purchase on 2026-02-19, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner DAHL JAMES H — Purchase on 2026-02-19, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner DAHL JAMES H — Purchase on 2026-02-18, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner DAHL JAMES H — Purchase on 2026-02-18, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner DAHL JAMES H — Purchase on 2026-02-17, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner DAHL JAMES H — Purchase on 2026-02-17, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner DAHL JAMES H — Purchase on 2026-02-12, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner DAHL JAMES H — Purchase on 2026-02-12, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner DAHL JAMES H — Purchase on 2026-02-11, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner DAHL JAMES H — Purchase on 2026-02-11, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner DAHL JAMES H — Purchase on 2026-02-10, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner DAHL JAMES H — Purchase on 2026-02-10, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-30Uleau AdrienneofficerSale4,000 @ $23.49$94K−37.8% of holding−5.4%not yet — horizon still open6,574Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-22DAHL JAMES HtenPercentOwnerPurchase3,075 @ $25.58$79K+0.6% of holding−0.2%not yet — horizon still open501,708Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-02DAHL JAMES HtenPercentOwnerPurchase1,500 @ $26.62$40K+0.3% of holding−0.8%not yet — horizon still open498,633Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-29DAHL JAMES HtenPercentOwnerPurchase3,000 @ $25.67$77K+0.6% of holding+1.8%not yet — horizon still open496,133Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-29DAHL JAMES HtenPercentOwnerPurchase1,000 @ $27.63$28K+0.2% of holding+1.8%not yet — horizon still open497,133Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-20DAHL JAMES HtenPercentOwnerPurchase5,000 @ $24.50$122K+1.0% of holding−4.2%not yet — horizon still open493,133Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-13DAHL JAMES HtenPercentOwnerPurchase1,156 @ $24.72$29K+0.2% of holding+2.6%not yet — horizon still open488,133Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-01DAHL JAMES HtenPercentOwnerPurchase3,000 @ $27.85$84K+0.6% of holding−10.4%not yet — horizon still open486,977Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-29DAHL JAMES HtenPercentOwnerPurchase5,000 @ $27.74$139K+1.0% of holding−13.9%not yet — horizon still open483,977Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-21McNaney Timothy SdirectorPurchase1,765 @ $28.17$50Kownership Δ n/a−9.1%not yet — horizon still open1,765Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-20DAHL JAMES HtenPercentOwnerPurchase1,519 @ $27.25$41K+0.3% of holding−12.9%not yet — horizon still open478,977Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-17DAHL JAMES HtenPercentOwnerPurchase1,000 @ $27.66$28K+0.2% of holding−15.5%not yet — horizon still open477,458Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-31DAHL JAMES HtenPercentOwnerPurchase2,060 @ $27.92$58K+0.4% of holding−12.6%not yet — horizon still open476,458Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-26DAHL JAMES HtenPercentOwnerPurchase1,900 @ $27.16$52K+0.4% of holding−6.4%not yet — horizon still open474,398Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-26DAHL JAMES HtenPercentOwnerPurchase1,800 @ $25.44$46K+0.4% of holding−6.4%not yet — horizon still open472,198Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-26DAHL JAMES HtenPercentOwnerPurchase300 @ $26.05$8K+0.1% of holding−6.4%not yet — horizon still open472,498Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-03DAHL JAMES HtenPercentOwnerPurchase3,200 @ $25.69$82K+0.7% of holding+13.7%−22.5%470,398Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-27DAHL JAMES HtenPercentOwnerPurchase1,124 @ $26.23$29K+0.2% of holding+17.5%−21.4%467,198Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-27DAHL JAMES HtenPercentOwnerPurchase876 @ $25.65$22K+0.2% of holding+17.5%−21.4%466,074Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-26DAHL JAMES HtenPercentOwnerPurchase5,000 @ $25.67$128K+1.1% of holding+10.9%−21.1%465,198Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-19DAHL JAMES HtenPercentOwnerPurchase884 @ $26.49$23K+0.2% of holding+7.6%−23.6%460,198Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-19DAHL JAMES HtenPercentOwnerPurchase416 @ $26.11$11K+0.1% of holding+7.6%−23.6%459,314Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-18DAHL JAMES HtenPercentOwnerPurchase3,212 @ $25.04$80K+0.7% of holding+11.1%−24.1%458,110Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-18DAHL JAMES HtenPercentOwnerPurchase788 @ $25.75$20K+0.2% of holding+11.1%−24.1%458,898Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-17DAHL JAMES HtenPercentOwnerPurchase4,411 @ $24.53$108K+1.0% of holding+17.2%−20.5%452,467Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-17DAHL JAMES HtenPercentOwnerPurchase2,431 @ $25.50$62K+0.5% of holding+17.2%−20.5%454,898Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-12DAHL JAMES HtenPercentOwnerPurchase3,960 @ $23.64$94K+0.9% of holding+21.0%−19.5%447,658Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-12DAHL JAMES HtenPercentOwnerPurchase398 @ $24.32$10K+0.1% of holding+21.0%−19.5%448,056Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-11DAHL JAMES HtenPercentOwnerPurchase2,303 @ $23.34$54K+0.5% of holding+7.9%−18.9%443,001Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-11DAHL JAMES HtenPercentOwnerPurchase697 @ $23.95$17K+0.2% of holding+7.9%−18.9%443,698Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-10DAHL JAMES HtenPercentOwnerPurchase3,636 @ $21.12$77K+0.8% of holding+7.7%−13.4%438,210Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-10DAHL JAMES HtenPercentOwnerPurchase2,488 @ $22.29$55K+0.6% of holding+7.7%−13.4%440,698Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-20ROBOTTI ROBERTdirectorSale12,821 @ $31.56$405K−4.1% of holding−7.8%−38.1%296,594Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-20ROBOTTI ROBERTdirectorSale179 @ $31.56$6K−0.1% of holding−7.8%−38.1%309,415Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-19ROBOTTI ROBERTdirectorSale17,496 @ $31.24$547K−5.3% of holding−5.1%−34.4%309,594Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-19ROBOTTI ROBERTdirectorSale357 @ $31.24$11K−0.1% of holding−5.1%−34.4%327,090Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-18ROBOTTI ROBERTdirectorSale197 @ $31.75$6K−0.1% of holding−5.3%−32.5%327,447Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-18ROBOTTI ROBERTdirectorSale4 @ $31.75$127−0.0% of holding−5.3%−32.5%327,644Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

10 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-13Vitale Christopher VdirectorAward / grant8,700125,900Form 4
2026-07-13Uleau AdrienneofficerAward / grant2,25010,574Form 4
2025-12-31ROBOTTI ROBERTdirectorAward / grant1,59523,196Form 4
2025-12-31CLOUES EDWARD B IIdirectorAward / grant1,59524,409Form 4
2025-12-31RUSSO ALBERTdirectorAward / grant1,59524,409Form 4
2025-07-17Vitale Christopher VdirectorAward / grant8,000117,200Form 4
2025-07-17Uleau AdrienneofficerAward / grant2,1008,324Form 4
2024-12-31ROBOTTI ROBERTdirectorAward / grant95521,601Form 4
2024-12-31RUSSO ALBERTdirectorAward / grant95522,814Form 4
2024-12-31CLOUES EDWARD B IIdirectorAward / grant95522,814Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.