Issued 2026-08-13 at $615.59 · now $615.59 (2026-08-13, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, AXON has typically landed between $502.05 and $773.44 — a range of −18.4% to +25.6% from the issuance price $615.59.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,662 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($615.59) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AXON has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $615.59 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $615.59 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $627.6 (+2.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $574.92–$680.29
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $502.05–$773.44
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-10-23 | −44.8% | −45.0% | +10.1% |
| 2008-10-22 | −42.6% | −42.6% | +14.8% |
| 2008-09-26 | −41.3% | −41.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-11-21 | +78.8% | +0.0% | +85.5% |
| 2008-11-20 | +77.2% | +0.0% | +86.2% |
| 2008-11-19 | +70.9% | −8.2% | +70.9% |
4,662 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$-92.05
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$76.39
- Analyst target · range $440.00–$820.00$724.00
- Current price · last close 2026-08-13$615.59
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-15 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 3,527 @ $750.09 | $2.6M | −1.5% of holding | −3.0% | −49.5% | 238,898 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-15 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 3,034 @ $745.80 | $2.3M | −1.2% of holding | −3.0% | −49.5% | 246,232 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-15 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 1,702 @ $743.71 | $1.3M | −0.7% of holding | −3.0% | −49.5% | 249,823 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-15 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 1,635 @ $747.79 | $1.2M | −0.7% of holding | −3.0% | −49.5% | 243,375 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-15 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 1,222 @ $746.66 | $912K | −0.5% of holding | −3.0% | −49.5% | 245,010 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-15 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 950 @ $748.47 | $711K | −0.4% of holding | −3.0% | −49.5% | 242,425 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-15 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 838 @ $741.75 | $622K | −0.3% of holding | −3.0% | −49.5% | 252,260 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-15 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 735 @ $742.94 | $546K | −0.3% of holding | −3.0% | −49.5% | 251,525 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-15 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 700 @ $739.04 | $517K | −0.3% of holding | −3.0% | −49.5% | 253,598 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-15 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 557 @ $744.68 | $415K | −0.2% of holding | −3.0% | −49.5% | 249,266 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-15 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 500 @ $740.21 | $370K | −0.2% of holding | −3.0% | −49.5% | 253,098 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-15 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 415 @ $750.65 | $312K | −0.2% of holding | −3.0% | −49.5% | 238,483 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-15 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 104 @ $751.35 | $78K | −0.0% of holding | −3.0% | −49.5% | 238,379 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-14 | Kunins Jeffrey C | officer | Sale | 2,368 @ $749.78 | $1.8M | −1.6% of holding | −1.0% | −49.0% | 148,161 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Kunins Jeffrey C | officer | Sale | 1,954 @ $750.73 | $1.5M | −1.3% of holding | −1.0% | −49.0% | 146,207 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Kunins Jeffrey C | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $751.80 | $752K | −0.7% of holding | −1.0% | −49.0% | 145,207 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Kunins Jeffrey C | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $748.48 | $748K | −0.7% of holding | −1.0% | −49.0% | 150,529 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Kunins Jeffrey C | officer | Sale | 900 @ $746.96 | $672K | −0.6% of holding | −1.0% | −49.0% | 151,529 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Kunins Jeffrey C | officer | Sale | 369 @ $752.98 | $278K | −0.3% of holding | −1.0% | −49.0% | 144,838 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Kunins Jeffrey C | officer | Sale | 200 @ $753.67 | $151K | −0.1% of holding | −1.0% | −49.0% | 144,638 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Kunins Jeffrey C | officer | Sale | 100 @ $754.73 | $75K | −0.1% of holding | −1.0% | −49.0% | 144,538 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Partovi Hadi | director | Purchase | 1,358 @ $740.00 | $1.0M | +0.6% of holding | −3.2% | −49.3% | 237,938 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
3 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +28 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Jefferson Shreve | House | sale | 2025-06-22 | 2025-05-12 | $15–50K |
| Jefferson Shreve | House | purchase | 2025-04-11 | 2025-03-05 | $15–50K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | sale | 2025-02-13 | 2025-01-13 | $1–15K |
| Markwayne Mullin | Senate | sale | 2024-12-31 | 2024-12-18 | $15–50K |
| Markwayne Mullin | Senate | sale | 2024-12-31 | 2024-12-18 | $15–50K |
| Markwayne Mullin | Senate | purchase | 2024-01-26 | 2024-01-04 | $1–15K |
| Markwayne Mullin | Senate | purchase | 2024-01-26 | 2024-01-04 | $1–15K |
| HON. GREG STANTON | House | sale | 2023-11-09 | 2023-10-24 | $1–15K |
| HON. GREG STANTON | House | purchase | 2023-11-09 | 2023-09-26 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.