Issued 2026-09-25 at $430.11 · now $430.11 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, AXON has typically landed between $347.91 and $541.50 — a range of −19.1% to +25.9% from the issuance price $430.11.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($430.11) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AXON has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $430.11 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $430.11 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $439.49 (+2.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $400.86–$478.12
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $347.91–$541.5
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,692 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-10-23 | −44.8% | −45.0% | +10.1% |
| 2008-10-22 | −42.6% | −42.6% | +14.8% |
| 2008-09-26 | −41.3% | −41.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-11-21 | +78.8% | +0.0% | +85.5% |
| 2008-11-20 | +77.2% | +0.0% | +86.2% |
| 2008-11-19 | +70.9% | −8.2% | +70.9% |
4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$40.5B
market cap
$2.49
EPS (TTM)
201.6
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-03
next earnings
Revenue$2.8B
'20'25
Net income$125M
'20'25
Free cash flow$75M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr4.5%
'20'25
ROE · by yr3.9%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.59
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$-92.05
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$76.39
- Analyst target · range $440.00–$820.00$724.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$430.11
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+2.7%
n=18
Feb
63%
+3.9%
n=19
Mar
53%
−2.1%
n=19
Apr
63%
+1.2%
n=19
May
53%
+3.8%
n=19
Jun
63%
+2.9%
n=19
Jul
58%
+0.7%
n=19
Aug
53%
+4.0%
n=19
Sep
53%
+1.7%
n=19
Oct
72%
+3.3%
n=18
Nov
67%
+7.8%
n=18
Dec
50%
+1.6%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Fields Isaiah | officer | Sale | 1,017 @ $480.45 | $489K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 56,264 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | SMITH PATRICK W | director | Sale | 1,774 @ $508.45 | $902K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,123,160 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | SMITH PATRICK W | director | Sale | 1,348 @ $510.59 | $688K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,120,493 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | SMITH PATRICK W | director | Sale | 1,319 @ $509.32 | $672K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,121,841 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | SMITH PATRICK W | director | Sale | 1,251 @ $511.43 | $640K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,119,242 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | SMITH PATRICK W | director | Sale | 1,104 @ $505.59 | $558K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,126,427 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | SMITH PATRICK W | director | Sale | 1,033 @ $512.70 | $530K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,118,209 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | SMITH PATRICK W | director | Sale | 749 @ $507.48 | $380K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,124,934 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | SMITH PATRICK W | director | Sale | 744 @ $506.48 | $377K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,125,683 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | SMITH PATRICK W | director | Sale | 410 @ $503.74 | $207K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,127,531 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | SMITH PATRICK W | director | Sale | 197 @ $513.38 | $101K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,118,012 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | SMITH PATRICK W | director | Sale | 71 @ $501.99 | $36K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,127,941 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 1,663 @ $579.76 | $964K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 300,047 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 1,684 @ $568.95 | $958K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 308,712 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 1,379 @ $578.73 | $798K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 301,710 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 1,232 @ $564.47 | $695K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 311,438 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 1,108 @ $575.79 | $638K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 304,789 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 1,075 @ $576.80 | $620K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 303,714 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 898 @ $569.70 | $512K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 307,814 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 793 @ $580.59 | $460K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 299,254 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 677 @ $571.98 | $387K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 306,494 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 661 @ $565.37 | $374K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 310,777 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 643 @ $570.94 | $367K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 307,171 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 625 @ $577.74 | $361K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 303,089 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 565 @ $585.72 | $331K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 297,774 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 477 @ $584.54 | $279K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 298,339 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 373 @ $562.27 | $210K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 313,029 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 359 @ $563.50 | $202K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 312,670 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 347 @ $561.08 | $195K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 313,402 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 318 @ $581.76 | $185K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 298,936 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 314 @ $573.37 | $180K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 306,180 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 280 @ $588.46 | $165K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 297,214 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 280 @ $586.43 | $164K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 297,494 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 283 @ $574.67 | $163K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 305,897 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 193 @ $567.53 | $110K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 310,396 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 188 @ $566.32 | $106K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 310,589 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 120 @ $582.84 | $70K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 298,816 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 109 @ $590.21 | $64K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 297,105 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 91 @ $592.51 | $54K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 297,014 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Isner Joshua | officer | Sale | 40 @ $595.17 | $24K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 296,974 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Kunins Jeffrey C | officer | Sale | 1,350 @ $631.24 | $852K | −1.3% of holding | −27.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 100,211 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Kunins Jeffrey C | officer | Sale | 1,200 @ $629.09 | $755K | −1.2% of holding | −27.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 102,321 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Kunins Jeffrey C | officer | Sale | 1,074 @ $623.84 | $670K | −1.0% of holding | −27.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 104,212 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Kunins Jeffrey C | officer | Sale | 1,050 @ $632.23 | $664K | −1.0% of holding | −27.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 99,161 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Kunins Jeffrey C | officer | Sale | 760 @ $630.22 | $479K | −0.7% of holding | −27.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 101,561 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Kunins Jeffrey C | officer | Sale | 615 @ $634.20 | $390K | −0.6% of holding | −27.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 98,106 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Kunins Jeffrey C | officer | Sale | 571 @ $627.75 | $358K | −0.5% of holding | −27.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 103,521 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Kunins Jeffrey C | officer | Sale | 440 @ $633.12 | $279K | −0.4% of holding | −27.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 98,721 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Kunins Jeffrey C | officer | Sale | 400 @ $617.57 | $247K | −0.4% of holding | −27.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 105,606 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Kunins Jeffrey C | officer | Sale | 345 @ $635.02 | $219K | −0.4% of holding | −27.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 97,761 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Kunins Jeffrey C | officer | Sale | 280 @ $616.32 | $173K | −0.3% of holding | −27.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 106,006 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Kunins Jeffrey C | officer | Sale | 240 @ $613.64 | $147K | −0.2% of holding | −27.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 106,366 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Kunins Jeffrey C | officer | Sale | 200 @ $612.78 | $123K | −0.2% of holding | −27.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 106,606 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Kunins Jeffrey C | officer | Sale | 160 @ $609.56 | $98K | −0.1% of holding | −27.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 107,086 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Kunins Jeffrey C | officer | Sale | 141 @ $610.13 | $86K | −0.1% of holding | −27.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 106,945 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Kunins Jeffrey C | officer | Sale | 139 @ $611.50 | $85K | −0.1% of holding | −27.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 106,806 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Kunins Jeffrey C | officer | Sale | 120 @ $625.78 | $75K | −0.1% of holding | −27.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 104,092 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Kunins Jeffrey C | officer | Sale | 120 @ $618.27 | $74K | −0.1% of holding | −27.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 105,486 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Kunins Jeffrey C | officer | Sale | 80 @ $620.79 | $50K | −0.1% of holding | −27.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 105,326 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Kunins Jeffrey C | officer | Sale | 80 @ $619.41 | $50K | −0.1% of holding | −27.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 105,406 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
49 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Fields Isaiah | officer | Withheld for tax | 763 | 57,281 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Brooks Cameron | officer | Withheld for tax | 735 | 67,246 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Coughlin Elizabeth Reid | officer | Withheld for tax | 479 | 40,363 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Mak Jennifer H | officer | Withheld for tax | 156 | 13,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Mak Jennifer H | officer | Award / grant | 3,906 | 13,756 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Coughlin Elizabeth Reid | officer | Award / grant | 6,818 | 40,842 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Fields Isaiah | officer | Award / grant | 10,488 | 58,044 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Brooks Cameron | officer | Award / grant | 15,810 | 67,981 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | SMITH PATRICK W | director | Award / grant | 97,015 | 3,128,012 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Kunins Jeffrey C | officer | Award / grant | 20,618 | 103,613 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Isner Joshua | officer | Award / grant | 14,218 | 313,749 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Kunins Jeffrey C | officer | Award / grant | 3,753 | 107,366 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Isner Joshua | officer | Award / grant | 67,910 | 299,531 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Bagley Brittany | director | Award / grant | 30,560 | 121,685 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Isner Joshua | officer | Withheld for tax | 15,704 | 231,621 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Bagley Brittany | director | Withheld for tax | 8,708 | 91,125 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Kunins Jeffrey C | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,233 | 82,995 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Kunins Jeffrey C | officer | Award / grant | 29,531 | 89,228 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Isner Joshua | officer | Award / grant | 78,200 | 247,325 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Bagley Brittany | director | Award / grant | 22,749 | 99,833 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Brooks Cameron | officer | Award / grant | 2,461 | 52,171 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-08 | Kant Eiso Hendricus Roland Leon | director | Award / grant | 600 | 3,165 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-08 | MOHINDRA VIVEK | director | Award / grant | 600 | 600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Isner Joshua | officer | Withheld for tax | 32,796 | 182,125 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Bagley Brittany | director | Withheld for tax | 16,182 | 83,053 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Kunins Jeffrey C | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,113 | 59,697 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Fields Isaiah | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,494 | 47,556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Coughlin Elizabeth Reid | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,922 | 35,578 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Mak Jennifer H | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,068 | 9,850 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Fields Isaiah | officer | Withheld for tax | 763 | 52,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Brooks Cameron | officer | Withheld for tax | 744 | 50,952 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Coughlin Elizabeth Reid | officer | Withheld for tax | 480 | 38,499 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Mak Jennifer H | officer | Withheld for tax | 156 | 11,918 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | SMITH GRAHAM | director | Award / grant | 611 | 3,629 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Morgenfeld Todd R | director | Award / grant | 611 | 947 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Partovi Hadi | director | Award / grant | 611 | 238,649 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | GARNREITER MICHAEL | director | Award / grant | 47 | 18,398 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | GARNREITER MICHAEL | director | Award / grant | 611 | 18,351 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Brown Adriane M | director | Award / grant | 611 | 8,437 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Nardini Erika | director | Award / grant | 611 | 2,557 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Jefferson Shreve | House | sale | 2025-06-22 | 2025-05-12 | $15–50K |
| Jefferson Shreve | House | purchase | 2025-04-11 | 2025-03-05 | $15–50K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | sale | 2025-02-13 | 2025-01-13 | $1–15K |
| Markwayne Mullin | Senate | sale | 2024-12-31 | 2024-12-18 | $15–50K |
| Markwayne Mullin | Senate | sale | 2024-12-31 | 2024-12-18 | $15–50K |
| Markwayne Mullin | Senate | purchase | 2024-01-26 | 2024-01-04 | $1–15K |
| Markwayne Mullin | Senate | purchase | 2024-01-26 | 2024-01-04 | $1–15K |
| HON. GREG STANTON | House | sale | 2023-11-09 | 2023-10-24 | $1–15K |
| HON. GREG STANTON | House | purchase | 2023-11-09 | 2023-09-26 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.