AXAxos Financial, Inc.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $92.54 · now $92.54 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AX has typically landed between $78.27 and $112.41 — a range of −15.4% to +21.5% from the issuance price $92.54.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($92.54) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $92.54 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$78.27worst · -15.4%$112.41best · +21.5%
  • now $92.54 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $93.02 (+0.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $85.57–$100.46
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $78.27–$112.41
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−48.0%−48.0%+0.0%
2020-02-18−47.7%−47.7%+0.4%
2020-02-13−46.2%−46.2%+0.1%
3 best
2023-11-13+55.1%+0.0%+55.1%
2016-11-08+51.1%+0.0%+51.1%
2016-02-11+48.9%+0.0%+48.9%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
70%
+5.1%
n=20
Feb
60%
+2.6%
n=20
Mar
50%
−2.7%
n=20
Apr
50%
+4.4%
n=20
May
50%
−0.1%
n=20
Jun
45%
+0.4%
n=20
Jul
80%
+8.2%
n=20
Aug
50%
+0.6%
n=20
Sep
55%
−0.6%
n=20
Oct
50%
−2.0%
n=20
Nov
90%
+6.9%
n=20
Dec
65%
+5.2%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$105$762026-08-05: 1 insider sale, $53K — Santi Roque A2026-06-08: 1 insider sale, $177K — Constantine Thomas M2026-05-19: 1 insider sale, $138K — Watson Michael James2026-05-08: 1 insider sale, $44K — Santi Roque A2026-02-17: 1 insider sale, $125K — Nick Mosich2026-02-11: 1 insider sale, $97K — Nick Mosich2026-02-06: 3 insider sales, $1.9M — COURT JAMES JOHN, Walsh Derrick, Constantine Thomas M2026-02-04: 1 insider sale, $4.3M — Garrabrants Gregory2025-12-08: 1 insider sale, $185K — Bohlig Tamara N2025-12-05: 1 insider sale, $181K — Ratinoff Edward James2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $1.2M2025-09: 4 open-market sales, $649K2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $366K2026-02: 6 open-market sales, $6.5M2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $182K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $177K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $53K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Santi Roque A — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Constantine Thomas M — Sale on 2026-06-08, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Watson Michael James — Sale on 2026-05-19, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Santi Roque A — Sale on 2026-05-08, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Nick Mosich — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Nick Mosich — Sale on 2026-02-11, filed 2 days after the tradedirector COURT JAMES JOHN — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed same dayofficer Walsh Derrick — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed same dayofficer Constantine Thomas M — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Garrabrants Gregory — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Bohlig Tamara N — Sale on 2025-12-08, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Ratinoff Edward James — Sale on 2025-12-05, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-05Santi Roque AdirectorSale500 @ $105.30$53K−6.5% of holding−7.0%not yet — horizon still open7,146Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-08Constantine Thomas MofficerSale1,994 @ $88.55$177K−11.0% of holding+8.4%not yet — horizon still open16,195Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-19Watson Michael JamesofficerSale1,653 @ $83.77$138K−26.5% of holding+3.3%not yet — horizon still open4,592Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-08Santi Roque AdirectorSale500 @ $87.77$44K−6.1% of holding+1.7%not yet — horizon still open7,646Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-17Nick MosichdirectorSale1,275 @ $98.00$125K−1.6% of holding−13.0%−12.9%79,942Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-11Nick MosichdirectorSale1,000 @ $97.00$97K−1.2% of holding−6.3%−6.6%81,217Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-06COURT JAMES JOHNdirectorSale11,163 @ $101.01$1.1M−25.8% of holding−13.0%−14.3%32,169Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-06Walsh DerrickofficerSale4,846 @ $101.21$490K−11.3% of holding−13.0%−14.3%37,936Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-06Constantine Thomas MofficerSale3,260 @ $100.00$326K−16.9% of holding−13.0%−14.3%16,077Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-04Garrabrants GregorydirectorSale43,294 @ $99.10$4.3M−3.0% of holding−11.1%−9.9%1,418,751Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-08Bohlig Tamara NdirectorSale2,145 @ $86.23$185K−14.2% of holding+8.3%−3.2%12,919Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-05Ratinoff Edward JamesdirectorSale2,145 @ $84.59$181K−4.4% of holding+6.5%−3.8%46,209Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

288 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-15MATSUMOTO RAYMOND DofficerOption exercise4,94646,579Form 4
2026-09-15Walsh DerrickofficerOption exercise4,12744,280Form 4
2026-09-15Constantine Thomas MofficerOption exercise3,90520,100Form 4
2026-09-15Bar-Adon EshelofficerOption exercise3,629133,007Form 4
2026-09-15Tolla John CharlesofficerOption exercise3,50232,796Form 4
2026-09-15Swanson Brian DofficerOption exercise3,38161,404Form 4
2026-09-15Watson Michael JamesofficerOption exercise3,1747,766Form 4
2026-09-15MATSUMOTO RAYMOND DofficerDisposition2,66843,911Form 4
2026-09-15Walsh DerrickofficerDisposition2,22242,058Form 4
2026-09-15Constantine Thomas MofficerDisposition2,10217,998Form 4
2026-09-15Bar-Adon EshelofficerDisposition1,956131,051Form 4
2026-09-15Tolla John CharlesofficerDisposition1,88530,911Form 4
2026-09-15Swanson Brian DofficerDisposition1,82259,582Form 4
2026-09-15GILL ANNofficerOption exercise1,64312,224Form 4
2026-09-15Watson Michael JamesofficerDisposition1,5836,183Form 4
2026-09-15THIELE CANDACE LofficerOption exercise1,1222,130Form 4
2026-09-15GILL ANNofficerDisposition88411,340Form 4
2026-09-15THIELE CANDACE LofficerDisposition5471,583Form 4
2026-09-15Bar-Adon EshelofficerOption exercise3,6299,764Form 4
2026-09-15GILL ANNofficerAward / grant1,2957,837Form 4
2026-09-15GILL ANNofficerOption exercise1,6436,542Form 4
2026-09-15Constantine Thomas MofficerAward / grant2,80612,495Form 4
2026-09-15Watson Michael JamesofficerAward / grant1,9009,385Form 4
2026-09-15Watson Michael JamesofficerOption exercise3,1747,485Form 4
2026-09-15THIELE CANDACE LofficerAward / grant1,0794,498Form 4
2026-09-15THIELE CANDACE LofficerOption exercise1,1223,419Form 4
2026-09-15Bar-Adon EshelofficerAward / grant3,07612,840Form 4
2026-09-15Swanson Brian DofficerAward / grant2,96820,243Form 4
2026-09-15Swanson Brian DofficerOption exercise3,38117,275Form 4
2026-09-15Tolla John CharlesofficerAward / grant2,96821,270Form 4
2026-09-15Tolla John CharlesofficerOption exercise3,50218,302Form 4
2026-09-15Walsh DerrickofficerAward / grant3,07613,784Form 4
2026-09-15Walsh DerrickofficerOption exercise4,12710,708Form 4
2026-09-15Constantine Thomas MofficerOption exercise3,9059,689Form 4
2026-09-15MATSUMOTO RAYMOND DofficerAward / grant2,69814,865Form 4
2026-09-15MATSUMOTO RAYMOND DofficerOption exercise4,94612,167Form 4
2026-09-03Garrabrants GregorydirectorAward / grant61,482454,229Form 4
2026-06-30Garrabrants GregorydirectorAward / grant202,0321,618,261Form 4
2026-06-30Garrabrants GregorydirectorDisposition108,9951,509,266Form 4
2026-06-30Garrabrants GregorydirectorOption exercise202,032392,747Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.