AWRAmerican States Water CompanyUtilities · Regulated Wateras of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $87.17 · now $87.17 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AWR has typically landed between $79.66 and $95.33 — a range of −8.6% to +9.4% from the issuance price $87.17.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($87.17) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AWR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $87.17 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$79.66worst · -8.6%$95.33best · +9.4%
  • now $87.17 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $87.28 (+0.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $84.15–$90.41
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $79.66–$95.33
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-13−29.3%−29.3%+1.4%
2008-09-26−27.8%−27.8%+0.3%
2008-09-25−23.7%−23.7%+0.3%
3 best
2020-03-16+31.7%+0.0%+42.2%
2022-10-20+25.2%+0.0%+25.2%
2019-08-05+23.4%+0.0%+23.4%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−0.8%
n=20
Feb
40%
−1.4%
n=20
Mar
65%
+2.9%
n=20
Apr
35%
−0.8%
n=20
May
65%
−0.2%
n=20
Jun
65%
+2.3%
n=20
Jul
75%
+3.8%
n=20
Aug
55%
+0.8%
n=20
Sep
40%
−0.1%
n=20
Oct
55%
+3.3%
n=20
Nov
70%
+1.6%
n=20
Dec
55%
+0.6%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$91$692026-09-04: 1 insider sale, $48K — BONTA DIANA M2026-08-19: 1 insider sale, $80K — HOLLOWAY ANNE M2026-05-20: 1 insider sale, $50K — HOLLOWAY ANNE M2026-05-19: 1 insider purchase, $40K — HOLLOWAY ANNE M2026-05-18: 1 insider purchase, $10K — HOLLOWAY ANNE M2026-05-15: 1 insider sale, $99K — Rowley Paul J2026-02-23: 1 insider purchase, $10K — HOLLOWAY ANNE M2025-11-14: 1 insider purchase, $10K — HOLLOWAY ANNE M2025-11-11: 1 insider sale, $40K — HOLLOWAY ANNE M2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $10K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $40K2026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $10K2026-05: 2 open-market purchases, $50K2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $149K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $80K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $48K↑ buys↓ salesdirector BONTA DIANA M — Sale on 2026-09-04, filed 5 days after the tradedirector HOLLOWAY ANNE M — Sale on 2026-08-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector HOLLOWAY ANNE M — Sale on 2026-05-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector HOLLOWAY ANNE M — Purchase on 2026-05-19, filed same daydirector HOLLOWAY ANNE M — Purchase on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Rowley Paul J — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed same daydirector HOLLOWAY ANNE M — Purchase on 2026-02-23, filed 85 days after the tradedirector HOLLOWAY ANNE M — Purchase on 2025-11-14, filed 186 days after the tradedirector HOLLOWAY ANNE M — Sale on 2025-11-11, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-04BONTA DIANA MdirectorSale546 @ $88.80$48K−3.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open16,612Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-08-19HOLLOWAY ANNE MdirectorSale900 @ $88.86$80K−2.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open38,518Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-20HOLLOWAY ANNE MdirectorSale662 @ $75.58$50K−1.7% of holding+1.6%not yet — horizon still open39,418Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-19HOLLOWAY ANNE MdirectorPurchase527 @ $75.92$40K+1.3% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open40,080Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-18HOLLOWAY ANNE MdirectorPurchase135 @ $75.92$10K+0.3% of holding+1.0%not yet — horizon still open39,553Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-15Rowley Paul JofficerSale1,304 @ $76.05$99K−16.7% of holding+2.0%not yet — horizon still open6,520Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-23HOLLOWAY ANNE MdirectorPurchase138 @ $73.50$10K+0.4% of holding+3.7%+12.3%39,418Form 4 · filed 85 days after the trade
2025-11-14HOLLOWAY ANNE MdirectorPurchase135 @ $74.59$10K+0.3% of holding−2.2%−7.2%39,280Form 4 · filed 186 days after the trade
2025-11-11HOLLOWAY ANNE MdirectorSale528 @ $75.90$40K−1.3% of holding−4.1%−6.7%39,145Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-06Eichelberger Thomas A.directorPurchase897 @ $76.81$69K+11.8% of holding−3.2%−18.4%8,467Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-12BONTA DIANA MdirectorSale968 @ $77.00$75K−5.7% of holding+3.5%−22.5%15,931Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-12BONTA DIANA MdirectorSale1 @ $77.06$77−0.0% of holding+3.5%−22.5%16,899Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-07Rowley Paul JofficerPurchase81 @ $73.53$6K−1.6% of holding+17.8%−0.8%5,164Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-07Rowley Paul JofficerPurchase79 @ $73.53$6K−1.5% of holding+17.8%−0.8%5,085Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

286 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-19BONTA DIANA MdirectorAward / grant52717,133Form 4
2026-05-19Winn Caroline AnndirectorAward / grant5271,610Form 4
2026-05-19Levin Carl JamesdirectorAward / grant5277,203Form 4
2026-05-19Hopkins Mary AnndirectorAward / grant5274,711Form 4
2026-05-19Ervin Roger MdirectorAward / grant5272,060Form 4
2026-05-19Eichelberger Thomas A.directorAward / grant5278,997Form 4
2026-05-19DAVIS STEVEN DdirectorAward / grant5274,836Form 4
2026-05-18BONTA DIANA MdirectorAward / grant2316,606Form 4
2026-03-13SPROWLS ROBERT JofficerWithheld for tax9,001219,968Form 4
2026-03-13SPROWLS ROBERT JofficerWithheld for tax718219,251Form 4
2026-03-13SPROWLS ROBERT JofficerWithheld for tax710218,540Form 4
2026-03-13Connor Christopher HofficerWithheld for tax4246,315Form 4
2026-03-13TANG EVA GofficerWithheld for tax40142,131Form 4
2026-03-13Miller Susan P.officerWithheld for tax3994,735Form 4
2026-03-13Rowley Paul JofficerWithheld for tax3608,045Form 4
2026-03-13FARROW GLADYSofficerWithheld for tax29511,101Form 4
2026-03-13Schickling David RofficerWithheld for tax2603,397Form 4
2026-03-13Pierotti JonofficerWithheld for tax2603,901Form 4
2026-03-13Pillai SunilofficerWithheld for tax2605,952Form 4
2026-03-13Kubiak PatrickofficerWithheld for tax2604,283Form 4
2026-03-13TANG EVA GofficerWithheld for tax11342,018Form 4
2026-03-13Rowley Paul JofficerWithheld for tax1137,932Form 4
2026-03-13Connor Christopher HofficerWithheld for tax1096,207Form 4
2026-03-13TANG EVA GofficerWithheld for tax10741,911Form 4
2026-03-13Rowley Paul JofficerWithheld for tax1077,824Form 4
2026-03-13Pierotti JonofficerWithheld for tax1043,797Form 4
2026-03-13Kubiak PatrickofficerWithheld for tax1044,179Form 4
2026-03-13Connor Christopher HofficerWithheld for tax1036,103Form 4
2026-03-13Pierotti JonofficerWithheld for tax983,699Form 4
2026-03-13Kubiak PatrickofficerWithheld for tax984,080Form 4
2026-03-13Miller Susan P.officerWithheld for tax894,646Form 4
2026-03-13Miller Susan P.officerWithheld for tax854,561Form 4
2026-03-13FARROW GLADYSofficerWithheld for tax8111,019Form 4
2026-03-13Schickling David RofficerWithheld for tax813,316Form 4
2026-03-13Pillai SunilofficerWithheld for tax815,871Form 4
2026-03-13Pillai SunilofficerWithheld for tax775,794Form 4
2026-03-13FARROW GLADYSofficerWithheld for tax7710,942Form 4
2026-03-13Schickling David RofficerWithheld for tax773,239Form 4
2026-03-12SPROWLS ROBERT JofficerAward / grant17,693228,969Form 4
2026-03-12Connor Christopher HofficerAward / grant1,6656,739Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.