AWKAmerican Water Works Company, Inc.Utilities · Regulated Wateras of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $137.76 · now $137.76 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AWK has typically landed between $123.66 and $151.39 — a range of −10.2% to +9.9% from the issuance price $137.76.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,608 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-04-23 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($137.76) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AWK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $137.76 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$123.66worst · -10.2%$151.39best · +9.9%
  • now $137.76 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $137.8 (+0.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $132.56–$143.05
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $123.66–$151.39
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,608 windows spanning 2008-04-23 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−29.5%−29.5%+2.3%
2020-02-20−26.7%−26.7%+2.7%
2020-02-24−23.9%−28.9%+3.3%
3 best
2020-03-23+31.7%+0.0%+37.6%
2020-03-20+24.6%−3.6%+32.7%
2008-10-27+22.5%+0.0%+22.5%

4,608 overlapping windows · 2008-04-23 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$26.3B
market cap
$5.65
EPS (TTM)
23.8
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-29
next earnings
Revenue$5.1B
'20'25
Net income$1.1B
'20'25
Free cash flow−$1.1B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr21.6%
'20'25
ROE · by yr10.3%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.47
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 32 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $137.76$-364.17$188.09
  • DCF (intrinsic)$-326.08
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 22.6× · n=32$127.55
  • Analyst target · range $130.00–$150.00$131.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$137.76

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
72%
+0.9%
n=18
Feb
56%
−0.3%
n=18
Mar
78%
+2.7%
n=18
Apr
78%
+0.7%
n=18
May
37%
+0.1%
n=19
Jun
58%
+1.6%
n=19
Jul
74%
+2.7%
n=19
Aug
68%
+2.4%
n=19
Sep
53%
−1.5%
n=19
Oct
56%
+1.0%
n=18
Nov
67%
+3.3%
n=18
Dec
67%
+0.6%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$143$121↑ buys↓ sales
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-05-30Wikle Melissa K.officerSale2,825 @ $143.28$405K−27.2% of holding−5.4%−24.5%7,572Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

79 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-13KAMPLING PATRICIA LdirectorAward / grant1,3749,028Form 4
2026-05-13Marberry MichaeldirectorAward / grant1,37411,395Form 4
2026-05-13MCGUIGAN STUART MdirectorAward / grant1,3743,340Form 4
2026-05-13Edwards Jeffrey NdirectorAward / grant1,37411,826Form 4
2026-05-13Nathoo RaffiqdirectorAward / grant1,3742,536Form 4
2026-05-13JOHNSON JULIA LdirectorAward / grant1,37432,052Form 4
2026-05-13Kurz Karl FdirectorAward / grant2,15922,758Form 4
2026-05-13Grow Lisa AdirectorAward / grant1,3742,242Form 4
2026-05-13Havanec Laurie P.directorAward / grant1,3745,369Form 4
2026-02-17Griffith John C.officerWithheld for tax4,10137,686Form 4
2026-02-17Norton CherylofficerWithheld for tax2,91028,741Form 4
2026-02-17Duffy MaureenofficerWithheld for tax93228,906Form 4
2026-02-17Bowler DavidofficerWithheld for tax69310,598Form 4
2026-02-17Wikle Melissa K.officerWithheld for tax5438,383Form 4
2026-02-17Mitchell Stacy A.officerWithheld for tax5249,203Form 4
2026-02-17Mitchell Stacy A.officerAward / grant2,5508,667Form 4
2026-02-17Norton CherylofficerAward / grant4,25825,750Form 4
2026-02-17Bowler DavidofficerAward / grant3,7119,659Form 4
2026-02-17Bowler DavidofficerAward / grant1,63211,291Form 4
2026-02-17Duffy MaureenofficerAward / grant1,30127,824Form 4
2026-02-17Duffy MaureenofficerAward / grant2,01429,838Form 4
2026-02-17Griffith John C.officerAward / grant12,72933,465Form 4
2026-02-17Griffith John C.officerAward / grant8,32241,787Form 4
2026-02-17Mitchell Stacy A.officerAward / grant1,0609,727Form 4
2026-02-17Norton CherylofficerAward / grant5,90131,651Form 4
2026-02-17Sutton LoriofficerAward / grant1,3642,721Form 4
2026-02-17Wikle Melissa K.officerAward / grant6087,862Form 4
2026-02-17Wikle Melissa K.officerAward / grant1,0648,926Form 4
2026-01-31Griffith John C.officerWithheld for tax3,22620,736Form 4
2026-01-31Norton CherylofficerWithheld for tax1,77721,492Form 4
2026-01-31Bowler DavidofficerWithheld for tax7915,948Form 4
2026-01-31Mitchell Stacy A.officerWithheld for tax7296,117Form 4
2026-01-31Duffy MaureenofficerWithheld for tax60326,523Form 4
2026-01-31Wikle Melissa K.officerWithheld for tax3187,254Form 4
2026-01-31Sutton LoriofficerWithheld for tax1991,357Form 4
2025-10-01Sutton LoriofficerAward / grant901,556Form 4
2025-08-26Grow Lisa AdirectorAward / grant868868Form 4
2025-06-09Nathoo RaffiqdirectorAward / grant1,1601,160Form 4
2025-05-14Marberry MichaeldirectorAward / grant1,30810,021Form 4
2025-05-14Edwards Jeffrey NdirectorAward / grant1,30810,213Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Tommy TubervilleSenatesale2026-07-162026-06-08$15–50K
Rick LarsenHousesale2026-04-152026-04-07$1–15K
Richard W. AllenHousesale2026-02-172026-01-14$50–100K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Dwight EvansHousesale2025-12-192025-11-21$1–15K
Richard Dean Dr MccormickHousepurchase2025-12-092025-11-05$1–15K
Richard Dean Dr MccormickHousepurchase2025-09-172023-03-15$1–15K
Jefferson ShreveHousesale2025-06-222025-05-12$15–50K
Jefferson ShreveHousepurchase2025-05-082025-04-07$15–50K
Carol Devine MillerHousepurchase2025-04-112025-03-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-09-062024-08-02$1–15K
Richard W. AllenHousepurchase2023-08-102019-09-10$15–50K
Zoe LofgrenHousesale2023-06-062023-05-25$1–15K
Susie LeeHousesale2022-12-292022-11-30$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.