AWIArmstrong World Industries, Inc.Industrials · Constructionas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $157.92 · now $157.92 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AWI has typically landed between $140.23 and $182.49 — a range of −11.2% to +15.6% from the issuance price $157.92.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,992 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-10-11 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($157.92) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AWI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $157.92 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$140.23worst · -11.2%$182.49best · +15.6%
  • now $157.92 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $158.98 (+0.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $149.86–$168.09
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $140.23–$182.49
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,992 windows spanning 2006-10-11 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-29−42.8%−42.8%+0.0%
2009-02-05−42.6%−42.6%+5.9%
2008-09-30−42.6%−42.6%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-30+76.5%+0.0%+78.8%
2009-07-13+70.3%+0.0%+70.3%
2009-03-25+66.8%−6.7%+66.8%

4,992 overlapping windows · 2006-10-11 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−0.7%
n=20
Feb
60%
+2.3%
n=20
Mar
60%
+1.4%
n=20
Apr
40%
+3.3%
n=20
May
60%
−0.2%
n=20
Jun
50%
−0.8%
n=20
Jul
75%
+5.8%
n=20
Aug
50%
+3.6%
n=20
Sep
40%
−2.9%
n=20
Oct
47%
−1.1%
n=19
Nov
75%
+6.0%
n=20
Dec
60%
+2.3%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$202$1512026-02-27: 1 insider purchase, $100K — TEMPLIN ROY W2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $19K2026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $100K↑ buys↓ salesdirector TEMPLIN ROY W — Purchase on 2026-02-27, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-02-27TEMPLIN ROY WdirectorPurchase575 @ $173.91$100K+3.0% of holding−0.1%−11.2%19,451Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-08Osborne William HdirectorSale100 @ $188.78$19K−2.3% of holding+1.1%−3.2%4,241Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

107 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-09Kozak Jennifer OttofficerAward / grant1,1832,679Form 4
2026-09-09Kozak Jennifer OttofficerAward / grant1,4961,496Form 4
2026-09-09Kozak Jennifer OttofficerAward / grant1,4961,496Form 4
2026-09-09Kozak Jennifer OttofficerAward / grant1,1832,679Form 4
2026-09-09Kozak Jennifer OttofficerAward / grant1,1832,679Form 4
2026-09-09Kozak Jennifer OttofficerAward / grant1,4961,496Form 4
2026-09-09Kozak Jennifer OttofficerAward / grant1,1832,679Form 4
2026-09-09Kozak Jennifer OttofficerAward / grant1,4961,496Form 4
2026-06-12HOLLERAN KEVINdirectorAward / grant8761,311Form 4
2026-06-12Osborne William HdirectorAward / grant8764,817Form 4
2026-06-12Loughran BarbaradirectorAward / grant8769,744Form 4
2026-06-12Holder Richard DdirectorAward / grant8766,223Form 4
2026-06-12Pitre KathleendirectorAward / grant8761,703Form 4
2026-06-12Shurts WaynedirectorAward / grant8769,755Form 4
2026-06-12TEMPLIN ROY WdirectorAward / grant1,26520,716Form 4
2026-04-28Grizzle VictordirectorOption exercise72,823537,493Form 4
2026-04-28Grizzle VictordirectorWithheld for tax31,671505,822Form 4
2026-04-28Grizzle VictordirectorOption exercise72,8230Form 4
2026-04-28Grizzle VictordirectorOption exercise72,8230Form 4
2026-04-08Grizzle VictordirectorWithheld for tax42,550464,670Form 4
2026-04-08Hershey Mark AofficerWithheld for tax5,83964,777Form 4
2026-04-08Calzaretta Christopher P.officerWithheld for tax3,98011,191Form 4
2026-04-08Crager Jill A.officerWithheld for tax1,7896,650Form 4
2026-04-08Winters Michael CarlofficerWithheld for tax1,6292,748Form 4
2026-04-08Burge James T.officerWithheld for tax8773,196Form 4
2026-04-08Calzaretta Christopher P.officerOption exercise9,1490Form 4
2026-04-08Crager Jill A.officerOption exercise4,1110Form 4
2026-04-08Grizzle VictordirectorOption exercise97,835507,220Form 4
2026-04-08Grizzle VictordirectorOption exercise97,8350Form 4
2026-04-08Hershey Mark AofficerOption exercise13,4230Form 4
2026-04-08Winters Michael CarlofficerOption exercise3,7424,377Form 4
2026-04-08Winters Michael CarlofficerOption exercise3,7420Form 4
2026-04-08Burge James T.officerOption exercise2,0154,073Form 4
2026-04-08Burge James T.officerOption exercise2,0150Form 4
2026-04-08Calzaretta Christopher P.officerOption exercise9,14915,171Form 4
2026-04-08Crager Jill A.officerOption exercise4,1118,439Form 4
2026-04-08Hershey Mark AofficerOption exercise13,42370,616Form 4
2026-04-01Cicali Jessica MarieofficerAward / grant1,8111,811Form 4
2026-04-01Cicali Jessica MarieofficerAward / grant1,1161,116Form 4
2026-02-27Grizzle VictordirectorOption exercise25,744419,722Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.