Issued 2026-09-16 at $172.28 · now $172.28 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AVY has typically landed between $155.63 and $188.49 — a range of −9.7% to +9.4% from the issuance price $172.28.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($172.28) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AVY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $172.28 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $172.28 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $171.65 (-0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $164.77–$178.53
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $155.63–$188.49
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −40.9% | −40.9% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −33.3% | −33.3% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-26 | −33.0% | −33.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-11 | +41.0% | +0.0% | +41.0% |
| 2009-03-06 | +40.1% | −0.8% | +41.9% |
| 2009-03-05 | +39.0% | −2.7% | +39.0% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$12.3B
market cap
$8.87
EPS (TTM)
18.1
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-30
next earnings
Revenue$8.9B
'20'25
Net income$688M
'20'25
Free cash flow$712M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr7.8%
'20'25
ROE · by yr30.7%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.66
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$130.46
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$271.89
- Analyst target · range $175.00–$224.00$209.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$172.28
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
44%
−0.7%
n=18
Feb
58%
+0.9%
n=19
Mar
47%
+1.2%
n=19
Apr
47%
+2.7%
n=19
May
63%
+0.0%
n=19
Jun
37%
−1.4%
n=19
Jul
63%
+2.7%
n=19
Aug
63%
+0.8%
n=19
Sep
42%
−0.2%
n=19
Oct
61%
+1.1%
n=18
Nov
72%
+3.2%
n=18
Dec
67%
+2.0%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Colisto Nicholas | officer | Sale | 3,886 @ $170.68 | $663K | −35.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,126 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Walker Ignacio J | officer | Sale | 1,742 @ $171.61 | $299K | −18.7% of holding | +1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,585 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Butier Mitchell R | director | Sale | 4,979 @ $170.69 | $850K | −2.4% of holding | −2.6% | −15.7% | 205,008 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Butier Mitchell R | director | Sale | 3,027 @ $172.66 | $523K | −1.5% of holding | −2.6% | −15.7% | 199,004 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Butier Mitchell R | director | Sale | 2,977 @ $171.80 | $511K | −1.5% of holding | −2.6% | −15.7% | 202,031 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Butier Mitchell R | director | Sale | 1,160 @ $169.71 | $197K | −0.5% of holding | −2.6% | −15.7% | 209,987 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Butier Mitchell R | director | Sale | 857 @ $173.50 | $149K | −0.4% of holding | −2.6% | −15.7% | 198,147 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Butier Mitchell R | director | Sale | 13,404 @ $173.98 | $2.3M | −5.9% of holding | −2.7% | −15.3% | 213,620 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Butier Mitchell R | director | Sale | 4,123 @ $173.17 | $714K | −1.8% of holding | −2.7% | −15.3% | 227,024 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Butier Mitchell R | director | Sale | 2,473 @ $174.53 | $432K | −1.2% of holding | −2.7% | −15.3% | 211,147 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Butier Mitchell R | director | Sale | 7,283 @ $176.38 | $1.3M | −3.0% of holding | −1.0% | −15.1% | 232,741 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Butier Mitchell R | director | Sale | 6,424 @ $175.26 | $1.1M | −2.6% of holding | −1.0% | −15.1% | 240,024 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Butier Mitchell R | director | Sale | 4,699 @ $174.52 | $820K | −1.9% of holding | −1.0% | −15.1% | 246,448 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Butier Mitchell R | director | Sale | 1,594 @ $176.98 | $282K | −0.7% of holding | −1.0% | −15.1% | 231,147 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Butier Mitchell R | director | Sale | 9,035 @ $175.76 | $1.6M | −3.4% of holding | −0.6% | −16.2% | 257,747 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Butier Mitchell R | director | Sale | 6,225 @ $176.92 | $1.1M | −2.4% of holding | −0.6% | −16.2% | 251,522 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Butier Mitchell R | director | Sale | 4,365 @ $174.97 | $764K | −1.6% of holding | −0.6% | −16.2% | 266,782 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Butier Mitchell R | director | Sale | 375 @ $177.58 | $67K | −0.1% of holding | −0.6% | −16.2% | 251,147 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Butier Mitchell R | director | Sale | 12,944 @ $179.03 | $2.3M | −4.4% of holding | −5.1% | −17.1% | 278,203 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Butier Mitchell R | director | Sale | 7,006 @ $179.63 | $1.3M | −2.5% of holding | −5.1% | −17.1% | 271,197 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Butier Mitchell R | director | Sale | 50 @ $182.15 | $9K | −0.0% of holding | −5.1% | −17.1% | 271,147 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Butier Mitchell R | director | Sale | 10,633 @ $183.86 | $2.0M | −3.4% of holding | −4.8% | −19.3% | 300,514 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Butier Mitchell R | director | Sale | 5,863 @ $185.01 | $1.1M | −2.0% of holding | −4.8% | −19.3% | 294,651 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Butier Mitchell R | director | Sale | 2,543 @ $185.95 | $473K | −0.9% of holding | −4.8% | −19.3% | 292,108 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Butier Mitchell R | director | Sale | 961 @ $186.51 | $179K | −0.3% of holding | −4.8% | −19.3% | 291,147 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Walker Ignacio J | officer | Sale | 1,156 @ $192.95 | $223K | −13.2% of holding | −6.6% | −18.3% | 7,588 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-06 | Butier Mitchell R | director | Sale | 6,868 @ $182.31 | $1.3M | −2.2% of holding | +4.9% | −20.5% | 303,781 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-06 | Butier Mitchell R | director | Sale | 5,651 @ $181.22 | $1.0M | −1.8% of holding | +4.9% | −20.5% | 310,649 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-06 | Butier Mitchell R | director | Sale | 450 @ $182.78 | $82K | −0.1% of holding | +4.9% | −20.5% | 303,331 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Butier Mitchell R | director | Sale | 8,068 @ $186.19 | $1.5M | −2.5% of holding | +0.7% | −18.3% | 316,300 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
270 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Wagner William Raymond | director | Award / grant | 344 | 344 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Allouche Danny Gilad | officer | Award / grant | 243 | 243 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Allouche Danny Gilad | officer | Award / grant | 351 | 351 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Allouche Danny Gilad | officer | Award / grant | 2,866 | 2,866 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Butier Mitchell R | director | Discretionary | 2,185 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Butier Mitchell R | director | Discretionary | 2,185 | 2,185 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Flitman David E | director | Option exercise | 765 | 765 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Flitman David E | director | Option exercise | 765 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Butier Mitchell R | director | Option exercise | 1,763 | 188,297 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Dickson Ward H. | director | Option exercise | 1,087 | 1,840 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Reverberi Francesca | director | Option exercise | 1,087 | 2,464 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | MEJIA MARIA FERNANDA | director | Option exercise | 1,087 | 2,063 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Alford Bradley A | director | Option exercise | 1,087 | 28,093 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Lopez Andres Alberto | director | Option exercise | 1,087 | 5,147 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Wagner William Raymond | director | Option exercise | 1,087 | 3,412 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Siewert Patrick | director | Option exercise | 1,087 | 19,611 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Siewert Patrick | director | Withheld for tax | 327 | 19,284 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Reverberi Francesca | director | Withheld for tax | 327 | 2,137 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Siewert Patrick | director | Option exercise | 1,087 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | MEJIA MARIA FERNANDA | director | Award / grant | 1,128 | 1,128 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | MEJIA MARIA FERNANDA | director | Option exercise | 1,087 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Wagner William Raymond | director | Award / grant | 1,128 | 1,128 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Wagner William Raymond | director | Option exercise | 1,087 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Reverberi Francesca | director | Award / grant | 1,128 | 1,128 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Reverberi Francesca | director | Option exercise | 1,087 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Lopez Andres Alberto | director | Award / grant | 1,128 | 1,128 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Lopez Andres Alberto | director | Option exercise | 1,087 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Siewert Patrick | director | Award / grant | 1,128 | 1,128 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Alford Bradley A | director | Award / grant | 1,128 | 1,128 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Alford Bradley A | director | Option exercise | 1,087 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Flitman David E | director | Award / grant | 1,128 | 1,128 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Butier Mitchell R | director | Award / grant | 1,829 | 1,829 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Butier Mitchell R | director | Option exercise | 1,763 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Dickson Ward H. | director | Award / grant | 1,128 | 1,128 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Dickson Ward H. | director | Option exercise | 1,087 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Butier Mitchell R | director | Option exercise | 9,645 | 316,804 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Lovins Gregory | officer | Option exercise | 8,230 | 85,253 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Butier Mitchell R | director | Withheld for tax | 5,657 | 311,147 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Butier Mitchell R | director | Option exercise | 5,079 | 308,410 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | STANDER DEON | director | Option exercise | 4,854 | 74,135 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-10-03 | 2025-09-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-08-07 | 2025-07-25 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-08-07 | 2025-07-25 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-06-10 | 2025-05-19 | $1–15K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | sale | 2025-05-08 | 2025-04-08 | $1–15K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | sale | 2025-03-27 | 2025-02-25 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-03-06 | 2025-02-25 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.