Issued 2026-09-16 at $16.58 · now $16.58 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AVTX has typically landed between $8.80 and $26.17 — a range of −46.9% to +57.9% from the issuance price $16.58.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,719 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-10-14 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($16.58) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AVTX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $16.58 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $16.58 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $15.54 (-6.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $12.27–$18.81
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $8.8–$26.17
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,719 windows spanning 2015-10-14 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-06-23 | −94.8% | −94.9% | +0.0% |
| 2023-06-22 | −94.7% | −94.7% | +2.8% |
| 2023-06-21 | −93.7% | −93.7% | +10.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-02-28 | +303.2% | −2.0% | +303.2% |
| 2024-03-01 | +269.0% | −1.6% | +305.0% |
| 2024-03-05 | +264.4% | −3.3% | +297.8% |
2,719 overlapping windows · 2015-10-14 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~11 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
36%
−6.3%
n=11
Feb
45%
−1.1%
n=11
Mar
27%
−7.0%
n=11
Apr
36%
+16.7%
n=11
May
36%
−4.6%
n=11
Jun
73%
+2.5%
n=11
Jul
45%
+2.2%
n=11
Aug
64%
−2.6%
n=11
Sep
55%
+2.9%
n=11
Oct
60%
+16.2%
n=10
Nov
36%
−7.1%
n=11
Dec
27%
−4.8%
n=11
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Sullivan Christopher Ryan | officer | Sale | 10,185 @ $17.62 | $179K | −20.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 39,900 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Doyle Mittie | director | Sale | 679 @ $20.00 | $14K | −1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 51,776 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Sullivan Christopher Ryan | officer | Sale | 31,031 @ $20.05 | $622K | −43.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 39,900 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Sullivan Christopher Ryan | officer | Sale | 37,945 @ $19.85 | $753K | −46.5% of holding | −14.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 43,649 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Sullivan Christopher Ryan | officer | Sale | 3,749 @ $19.94 | $75K | −8.6% of holding | −14.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,900 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Doyle Mittie | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $20.00 | $20K | −1.9% of holding | −14.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,776 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Riley Jennifer | officer | Sale | 2,655 @ $19.59 | $52K | −6.7% of holding | −10.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 37,041 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Doyle Mittie | director | Sale | 679 @ $20.00 | $14K | −1.3% of holding | −6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,776 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Doyle Mittie | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $20.00 | $20K | −1.9% of holding | −2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,776 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Doyle Mittie | director | Sale | 4,654 @ $20.00 | $93K | −8.2% of holding | +5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,776 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-23 | Doyle Mittie | director | Sale | 1,450 @ $18.00 | $26K | −2.7% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,776 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Doyle Mittie | director | Sale | 679 @ $16.00 | $11K | −1.4% of holding | +21.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,122 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Doyle Mittie | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $18.76 | $56K | −45.3% of holding | −20.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,622 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Sullivan Christopher Ryan | officer | Sale | 18,606 @ $24.12 | $449K | −97.8% of holding | −45.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 423 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Doyle Mittie | director | Sale | 44,944 @ $21.20 | $953K | −57.9% of holding | −40.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,695 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | VARKI PAUL | officer | Sale | 37,375 @ $18.91 | $707K | −47.5% of holding | −40.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,322 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Doyle Mittie | director | Sale | 27,538 @ $18.03 | $496K | −25.0% of holding | −40.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 82,639 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | VARKI PAUL | officer | Sale | 22,839 @ $21.22 | $485K | −63.2% of holding | −40.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,287 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Doyle Mittie | director | Sale | 19,015 @ $22.41 | $426K | −58.2% of holding | −40.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,680 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Sullivan Christopher Ryan | officer | Sale | 13,834 @ $18.55 | $257K | −29.2% of holding | −40.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,589 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Sullivan Christopher Ryan | officer | Sale | 12,347 @ $19.28 | $238K | −36.8% of holding | −40.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,242 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Doyle Mittie | director | Sale | 10,058 @ $22.88 | $230K | −73.5% of holding | −40.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,622 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | VARKI PAUL | officer | Sale | 9,253 @ $22.70 | $210K | −69.6% of holding | −40.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,034 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Sullivan Christopher Ryan | officer | Sale | 8,900 @ $22.57 | $201K | −95.5% of holding | −40.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 423 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Sullivan Christopher Ryan | officer | Sale | 9,219 @ $21.37 | $197K | −49.7% of holding | −40.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,323 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | VARKI PAUL | officer | Sale | 5,196 @ $19.78 | $103K | −12.6% of holding | −40.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,126 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Doyle Mittie | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $19.65 | $98K | −6.1% of holding | −40.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 77,639 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Chan Mitchell | director | Sale | 3,167 @ $22.88 | $72K | −50.0% of holding | −40.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,166 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Sullivan Christopher Ryan | officer | Sale | 2,700 @ $20.76 | $56K | −12.7% of holding | −40.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,542 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | VARKI PAUL | officer | Sale | 400 @ $23.71 | $9K | −9.9% of holding | −40.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,634 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Doyle Mittie | director | Sale | 1,679 @ $16.00 | $27K | −31.7% of holding | −20.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,622 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | Sullivan Christopher Ryan | officer | Sale | 8,457 @ $13.23 | $112K | −95.2% of holding | +12.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 423 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-29 | Sullivan Christopher Ryan | officer | Sale | 8,458 @ $13.09 | $111K | −48.8% of holding | +14.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,880 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Doyle Mittie | director | Sale | 3,970 @ $18.01 | $72K | −52.3% of holding | −9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,622 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Sullivan Christopher Ryan | officer | Sale | 6,200 @ $17.02 | $106K | −24.5% of holding | −31.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,118 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Sullivan Christopher Ryan | officer | Sale | 1,780 @ $17.57 | $31K | −9.3% of holding | −31.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,338 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Sullivan Christopher Ryan | officer | Sale | 7,479 @ $16.83 | $126K | −22.8% of holding | −27.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,318 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Doyle Mittie | director | Sale | 679 @ $16.00 | $11K | −15.8% of holding | −27.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,622 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Sullivan Christopher Ryan | officer | Sale | 500 @ $15.86 | $8K | −1.5% of holding | −27.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,797 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Doyle Mittie | director | Sale | 25,492 @ $16.15 | $412K | −87.6% of holding | −21.6% | −13.5% | 3,622 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-14 | Goldman Jonathan | director | Sale | 8,200 @ $14.35 | $118K | −100.0% of holding | +23.5% | −2.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-14 | Goldman Jonathan | director | Sale | 3,167 @ $14.30 | $45K | −100.0% of holding | +23.5% | −2.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
151 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Sullivan Christopher Ryan | officer | Option exercise | 10,185 | 50,085 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Sullivan Christopher Ryan | officer | Option exercise | 10,185 | 105,815 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Doyle Mittie | director | Option exercise | 679 | 52,455 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Doyle Mittie | director | Option exercise | 679 | 113,734 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Sullivan Christopher Ryan | officer | Option exercise | 31,031 | 70,931 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Sullivan Christopher Ryan | officer | Option exercise | 31,031 | 96,242 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Sullivan Christopher Ryan | officer | Option exercise | 37,945 | 78,718 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Sullivan Christopher Ryan | officer | Option exercise | 2,876 | 81,594 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Doyle Mittie | director | Option exercise | 1,000 | 52,776 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Doyle Mittie | director | Option exercise | 1,000 | 123,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Sullivan Christopher Ryan | officer | Option exercise | 2,876 | 127,273 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Sullivan Christopher Ryan | officer | Option exercise | 37,945 | 130,149 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Doyle Mittie | director | Option exercise | 679 | 52,455 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Doyle Mittie | director | Option exercise | 679 | 114,413 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Doyle Mittie | director | Option exercise | 1,000 | 52,776 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Doyle Mittie | director | Option exercise | 1,000 | 124,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Doyle Mittie | director | Option exercise | 2,875 | 54,651 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Lind Kevin Robert | director | Award / grant | 1,105 | 1,105 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Jain Rita | director | Award / grant | 1,080 | 1,080 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Doyle Mittie | director | Option exercise | 1,779 | 56,430 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Philip Ron M | director | Award / grant | 69 | 69 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Doyle Mittie | director | Option exercise | 2,875 | 125,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Doyle Mittie | director | Option exercise | 1,779 | 115,092 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Doyle Mittie | director | Option exercise | 1,450 | 53,226 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Doyle Mittie | director | Option exercise | 1,450 | 116,871 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Philip Ron M | director | Award / grant | 40,200 | 40,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Doyle Mittie | director | Withheld for tax | 1,084 | 51,776 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | VARKI PAUL | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,081 | 32,576 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Riley Jennifer | officer | Withheld for tax | 588 | 39,696 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Sullivan Christopher Ryan | officer | Withheld for tax | 138 | 40,773 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Lind Kevin Robert | director | Award / grant | 20,100 | 20,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Jain Rita | director | Award / grant | 20,100 | 20,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | KANTOFF AARON | director | Award / grant | 20,100 | 20,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Truex Samantha | director | Award / grant | 20,100 | 20,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | KAPLAN GILLA | director | Award / grant | 20,100 | 20,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Heffernan Michael Thomas | director | Award / grant | 29,500 | 29,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Doyle Mittie | director | Option exercise | 679 | 47,801 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Doyle Mittie | director | Option exercise | 679 | 118,321 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Doyle Mittie | director | Award / grant | 43,500 | 47,122 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Sullivan Christopher Ryan | officer | Award / grant | 39,900 | 40,323 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.