AVTRAvantor, Inc.Healthcare · Medical - Instruments & Suppliesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $15.61 · now $15.61 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AVTR has typically landed between $12.84 and $18.07 — a range of −17.8% to +15.8% from the issuance price $15.61.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,822 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-05-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($15.61) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AVTR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $15.61 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$12.84worst · -17.8%$18.07best · +15.8%
  • now $15.61 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $15.4 (-1.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $14.42–$16.38
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $12.84–$18.07
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,822 windows spanning 2019-05-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−53.0%−53.0%+2.0%
2020-02-14−43.8%−43.8%+0.8%
2020-02-13−43.1%−43.1%+1.6%
3 best
2020-03-18+65.4%+0.0%+72.6%
2026-06-29+43.4%−2.7%+43.4%
2020-04-01+42.7%+0.0%+42.7%

1,822 overlapping windows · 2019-05-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
71%
+1.5%
n=7
Feb
29%
−8.6%
n=7
Mar
29%
−6.5%
n=7
Apr
43%
+1.4%
n=7
May
71%
+3.9%
n=7
Jun
63%
+1.3%
n=8
Jul
63%
+10.8%
n=8
Aug
63%
+0.0%
n=8
Sep
38%
−4.6%
n=8
Oct
29%
−4.9%
n=7
Nov
57%
+8.7%
n=7
Dec
71%
+2.3%
n=7

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$16$72026-05-08: 1 insider purchase, $83K — LUCIER GREGORY T2026-05-01: 1 insider purchase, $204K — Dingemans Simon2026-03-10: 1 insider purchase, $1.0M — MEHRA SANJEEV K2026-02-19: 1 insider purchase, $458K — LUCIER GREGORY T2026-02-12: 1 insider purchase, $940K — SUMME GREGORY L2025-12-05: 1 insider purchase, $3.9M — MEHRA SANJEEV K2025-11-17: 1 insider purchase, $993K — Ligner Emmanuel2025-10-30: 1 insider purchase, $1.1M — SUMME GREGORY L2025-08-21: 1 insider purchase, $1.3M — SUMME GREGORY L2025-08: 1 open-market purchase, $1.3M2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $40K2025-10: 1 open-market purchase, $1.1M2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $993K2025-12: 1 open-market purchase, $3.9M2026-02: 2 open-market purchases, $1.4M2026-03: 1 open-market purchase, $1.0M2026-05: 2 open-market purchases, $287K↑ buys↓ salesdirector LUCIER GREGORY T — Purchase on 2026-05-08, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Dingemans Simon — Purchase on 2026-05-01, filed 4 days after the tradedirector MEHRA SANJEEV K — Purchase on 2026-03-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector LUCIER GREGORY T — Purchase on 2026-02-19, filed 4 days after the tradedirector SUMME GREGORY L — Purchase on 2026-02-12, filed same daydirector MEHRA SANJEEV K — Purchase on 2025-12-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Ligner Emmanuel — Purchase on 2025-11-17, filed same daydirector SUMME GREGORY L — Purchase on 2025-10-30, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SUMME GREGORY L — Purchase on 2025-08-21, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-08LUCIER GREGORY TdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $8.32$83K+20.0% of holding+19.3%not yet — horizon still open60,000Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-01Dingemans SimondirectorPurchase25,000 @ $8.14$204Kownership Δ n/a+7.5%not yet — horizon still open25,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-10MEHRA SANJEEV KdirectorPurchase125,000 @ $8.01$1.0M+35.7% of holding−3.5%+69.4%475,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-19LUCIER GREGORY TdirectorPurchase50,000 @ $9.16$458Kownership Δ n/a−13.5%+42.7%50,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-12SUMME GREGORY LdirectorPurchase100,000 @ $9.40$940K+33.3% of holding−14.9%+34.9%400,000Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-05MEHRA SANJEEV KdirectorPurchase350,000 @ $11.09$3.9Mownership Δ n/a+9.7%−17.4%350,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-17Ligner EmmanueldirectorPurchase87,500 @ $11.35$993K+44.7% of holding+1.2%−39.6%283,424Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-30SUMME GREGORY LdirectorPurchase100,000 @ $11.25$1.1M+50.0% of holding+6.3%−33.9%300,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-21SUMME GREGORY LdirectorPurchase100,000 @ $12.56$1.3M+100.0% of holding−6.1%−37.2%200,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-05Eck Steven WofficerSale3,476 @ $11.39$40K−5.9% of holding+9.9%−14.2%55,068Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-23SUMME GREGORY LdirectorPurchase30,000 @ $12.50$375K+42.9% of holding+1.9%−23.7%100,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-22SUMME GREGORY LdirectorPurchase20,000 @ $12.65$253K+40.0% of holding+0.3%−27.1%70,000Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-07SUMME GREGORY LdirectorPurchase25,000 @ $12.00$300K+100.0% of holding+2.7%−24.5%50,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-29Massaro Joseph RdirectorPurchase8,100 @ $12.30$100K+30.1% of holding−3.7%−5.8%35,038Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-28SUMME GREGORY LdirectorPurchase25,000 @ $12.50$313Kownership Δ n/a−2.4%−4.1%25,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-28Peacock Jonathan MdirectorPurchase8,091 @ $12.81$104K+4.2% of holding−2.4%−4.1%202,715Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-28Kang LandirectorPurchase5,000 @ $12.57$63K+16.5% of holding−2.4%−4.1%35,215Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-27Eck Steven WofficerSale1,033 @ $17.00$18K−2.5% of holding+2.9%−31.5%39,571Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-27Bramwell JamesofficerSale774 @ $17.00$13K−0.9% of holding+2.9%−31.5%86,605Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-26Eck Steven WofficerSale4,907 @ $17.53$86K−10.8% of holding−1.8%−32.8%40,604Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-26Bramwell JamesofficerSale3,758 @ $17.53$66K−4.1% of holding−1.8%−32.8%87,379Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

108 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-18Ligner EmmanueldirectorWithheld for tax29,803737,334Form 4
2026-08-14Hankamer BrittanyofficerWithheld for tax181248,864Form 4
2026-07-31Eck Steven WofficerWithheld for tax1,385129,593Form 4
2026-07-24Sokenu ClaudiusofficerWithheld for tax1,201251,228Form 4
2026-06-21Walker CoreyofficerWithheld for tax3,010384,535Form 4
2026-05-07Dingemans SimondirectorAward / grant25,27031,495Form 4
2026-05-07SEVERINO MICHAELdirectorAward / grant25,27085,821Form 4
2026-05-07SUMME GREGORY LdirectorAward / grant25,27083,381Form 4
2026-05-07LUCIER GREGORY TdirectorAward / grant25,27034,006Form 4
2026-05-07Massaro Joseph RdirectorAward / grant25,27077,408Form 4
2026-05-07Makin LouisedirectorAward / grant25,27047,140Form 4
2026-05-07MEHRA SANJEEV KdirectorAward / grant25,27033,376Form 4
2026-05-07Murthy MaladirectorAward / grant25,27069,479Form 4
2026-05-01Brellier LudovicofficerAward / grant146,566146,566Form 4
2026-05-01Brellier LudovicofficerAward / grant246,002246,002Form 4
2026-04-03Eck Steven WofficerAward / grant31,645130,978Form 4
2026-02-24Eck Steven WofficerWithheld for tax45299,333Form 4
2026-02-24Hankamer BrittanyofficerWithheld for tax359249,045Form 4
2026-02-23Gourdier BenoitofficerWithheld for tax3,029362,859Form 4
2026-02-23Jones R. BrentofficerWithheld for tax2,805419,782Form 4
2026-02-23Sokenu ClaudiusofficerWithheld for tax2,376252,429Form 4
2026-02-23Eck Steven WofficerWithheld for tax2,01799,785Form 4
2026-02-23Hankamer BrittanyofficerWithheld for tax1,324249,404Form 4
2026-02-20Jones R. BrentofficerWithheld for tax9,506422,587Form 4
2026-02-20Walker CoreyofficerWithheld for tax4,963387,545Form 4
2026-02-20Gourdier BenoitofficerWithheld for tax4,160365,888Form 4
2026-02-20Sokenu ClaudiusofficerWithheld for tax2,919254,805Form 4
2026-02-20Eck Steven WofficerWithheld for tax2,125101,802Form 4
2026-02-20Hankamer BrittanyofficerWithheld for tax1,453250,728Form 4
2026-02-19Jones R. BrentofficerAward / grant634,617634,617Form 4
2026-02-19Blenn MaryofficerAward / grant235,993253,384Form 4
2026-02-19Blenn MaryofficerAward / grant1,041,7661,041,766Form 4
2026-02-19Hankamer BrittanyofficerAward / grant80,618252,181Form 4
2026-02-19Hankamer BrittanyofficerAward / grant317,310317,310Form 4
2026-02-19Jones R. BrentofficerAward / grant161,237432,093Form 4
2026-02-19Gourdier BenoitofficerAward / grant134,364370,048Form 4
2026-02-19Gourdier BenoitofficerAward / grant528,848528,848Form 4
2026-02-19Sokenu ClaudiusofficerAward / grant80,618257,724Form 4
2026-02-19Sokenu ClaudiusofficerAward / grant317,310317,310Form 4
2026-02-19Eck Steven WofficerAward / grant43,23043,230Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.