AVR · TickerCove

AVRAnteris Technologies Global Corp.Healthcare · Medical - Devicesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $8.37 · now $8.37 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AVR has typically landed between $5.66 and $12.54 — a range of −32.4% to +49.8% from the issuance price $8.37.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

418 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-12-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($8.37) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$8.37 · 69% of range

$3.38 low$10.57 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+7.8%

typical move · IQR 32.6%

−32.4%worst (p90)+49.8%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where AVR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $8.37 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $8.37 (+0.0%)
typical $9.03 (+7.8%)
middle 50% $7.66–$10.39
90% range $5.66–$12.54

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 418 windows spanning 2024-12-13 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2025-03-13	−63.8%	−63.8%	+0.4%
2025-03-14	−62.4%	−64.0%	+0.0%
2025-03-10	−62.0%	−62.0%	+4.4%
3 best
2025-04-11	+84.2%	+0.0%	+123.1%
2026-04-23	+74.0%	+0.0%	+74.0%
2025-04-08	+63.4%	−7.8%	+105.6%

418 overlapping windows · 2024-12-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

100%

+15.4%

n=2

Feb

100%

+11.0%

n=2

Mar

−31.4%

n=2

Apr

100%

+23.4%

n=2

May

50%

+12.9%

n=2

Jun

50%

+1.8%

n=2

Jul

−17.9%

n=2

Aug

100%

+17.5%

n=2

Sep

50%

+4.6%

n=2

Oct

−0.2%

n=1

Nov

−8.7%

n=1

Dec

100%

+21.7%

n=1

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-28	L1 Capital Pty Ltd	tenPercentOwner	Sale	7,800 @ $8.83	$69K	−0.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	4,803,541	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-11	L1 Capital Pty Ltd	tenPercentOwner	Sale	375,815 @ $9.30	$3.5M	−7.2% of holding	−7.8%	not yet — horizon still open	4,811,341	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-10	L1 Capital Pty Ltd	tenPercentOwner	Sale	251,844 @ $9.10	$2.3M	−4.6% of holding	−3.4%	not yet — horizon still open	5,187,156	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-06	L1 Capital Pty Ltd	tenPercentOwner	Sale	174,721 @ $8.10	$1.4M	−3.1% of holding	+7.9%	not yet — horizon still open	5,439,000	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-05	L1 Capital Pty Ltd	tenPercentOwner	Sale	14,581 @ $8.23	$120K	−0.3% of holding	+7.9%	not yet — horizon still open	5,613,721	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-04	L1 Capital Pty Ltd	tenPercentOwner	Sale	480,608 @ $8.30	$4.0M	−7.9% of holding	+4.5%	not yet — horizon still open	5,628,302	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-03	L1 Capital Pty Ltd	tenPercentOwner	Sale	475,693 @ $8.10	$3.9M	−7.2% of holding	+1.5%	not yet — horizon still open	6,108,910	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-31	L1 Capital Pty Ltd	tenPercentOwner	Sale	48,711 @ $8.15	$397K	−0.7% of holding	+7.1%	not yet — horizon still open	6,584,603	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-30	L1 Capital Pty Ltd	tenPercentOwner	Sale	558,633 @ $8.20	$4.6M	−7.8% of holding	+2.3%	not yet — horizon still open	6,633,314	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-29	L1 Capital Pty Ltd	tenPercentOwner	Sale	155,505 @ $8.04	$1.3M	−2.1% of holding	+7.8%	not yet — horizon still open	7,191,947	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-28	L1 Capital Pty Ltd	tenPercentOwner	Sale	208,731 @ $8.09	$1.7M	−2.8% of holding	+6.1%	not yet — horizon still open	7,347,452	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-27	L1 Capital Pty Ltd	tenPercentOwner	Sale	232,817 @ $8.19	$1.9M	−3.0% of holding	+5.2%	not yet — horizon still open	7,556,183	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-27	L1 Capital Pty Ltd	tenPercentOwner	Sale	48,344 @ $8.15	$394K	−0.9% of holding	+5.2%	not yet — horizon still open	5,359,470	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-24	L1 Capital Pty Ltd	tenPercentOwner	Sale	23,000 @ $8.13	$187K	−0.3% of holding	+4.9%	not yet — horizon still open	7,789,000	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-02	Knight Susan Elizabeth	director	Purchase	11,000 @ $9.29	$102K	ownership Δ n/a	+11.9%	not yet — horizon still open	11,000	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-22	L1 Capital Pty Ltd	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	5,000,000 @ $5.75	$28.8M	+60.8% of holding	−5.3%	+15.9%	13,219,814	Form 4 · filed 18 days after the trade
2025-10-28	L1 Capital Pty Ltd	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	1,333,334 @ $4.93	$6.6M	ownership Δ n/a	−12.4%	+22.4%	1,333,334	Form 4 · filed 104 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

81 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-11	Moen Brent	officer	Award / grant	90,274	90,274	Form 4
2026-08-19	St Denis David	director	Withheld for tax	45,072	116,010	Form 4
2026-08-19	St Denis David	director	Option exercise	60,000	161,082	Form 4
2026-08-19	St Denis David	director	Option exercise	60,000	0	Form 4
2026-06-07	Roberts David B	director	Option exercise	17,580	35,162	Form 4
2026-06-07	Moss Gregory S.	director	Option exercise	17,580	35,162	Form 4
2026-06-07	Moss Gregory S.	director	Option exercise	17,580	17,580	Form 4
2026-06-07	Roberts David B	director	Option exercise	17,580	17,580	Form 4
2026-06-07	Moss Gregory S.	director	Option exercise	17,580	17,580	Form 4
2026-06-07	Roberts David B	director	Option exercise	17,580	17,580	Form 4
2026-06-05	McDonnell Matthew	officer	Withheld for tax	39,595	22,406	Form 4
2026-06-05	McDonnell Matthew	officer	Option exercise	60,000	62,001	Form 4
2026-06-05	McDonnell Matthew	officer	Option exercise	2,001	2,001	Form 4
2026-06-05	McDonnell Matthew	officer	Option exercise	60,000	0	Form 4
2026-06-05	McDonnell Matthew	officer	Option exercise	2,001	0	Form 4
2026-03-04	McDonnell Matthew	officer	Award / grant	78,740	78,740	Form 4
2025-12-16	Paterson Wayne	director	Withheld for tax	163,213	182,727	Form 4
2025-12-16	St Denis David	director	Withheld for tax	65,584	101,082	Form 4
2025-12-16	St Denis David	director	Option exercise	166,666	333,334	Form 4
2025-12-16	Paterson Wayne	director	Option exercise	333,333	666,667	Form 4
2025-12-16	McDonnell Matthew	officer	Option exercise	27,777	55,556	Form 4
2025-12-16	Seaberg John D	director	Option exercise	27,777	55,556	Form 4
2025-12-16	McDonnell Matthew	officer	Option exercise	27,777	27,777	Form 4
2025-12-16	St Denis David	director	Option exercise	166,666	166,666	Form 4
2025-12-16	St Denis David	director	Option exercise	166,666	166,666	Form 4
2025-12-16	Seaberg John D	director	Option exercise	27,777	43,635	Form 4
2025-12-16	Paterson Wayne	director	Option exercise	333,333	345,940	Form 4
2025-12-16	McDonnell Matthew	officer	Option exercise	27,777	27,777	Form 4
2025-12-16	Seaberg John D	director	Option exercise	27,777	43,635	Form 4
2025-12-16	Paterson Wayne	director	Option exercise	333,333	345,940	Form 4
2025-12-03	Denaro Stephen	director	Award / grant	41,666	41,666	Form 4
2025-12-03	Paterson Wayne	director	Award / grant	1,000,000	1,000,000	Form 4
2025-12-03	Seaberg John D	director	Award / grant	83,333	83,333	Form 4
2025-12-03	Seaberg John D	director	Award / grant	56,053	56,053	Form 4
2025-12-03	Moss Gregory S.	director	Award / grant	52,742	52,742	Form 4
2025-12-03	Moss Gregory S.	director	Award / grant	13,821	13,821	Form 4
2025-12-03	Roberts David B	director	Award / grant	52,742	52,742	Form 4
2025-12-03	Roberts David B	director	Award / grant	13,821	13,821	Form 4
2025-12-03	Denaro Stephen	director	Award / grant	28,026	28,026	Form 4
2025-03-11	Denaro Stephen	director	Option exercise	16,500	23,722	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i