Issued 2026-09-16 at $13.43 · now $13.43 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AVPT has typically landed between $10.95 and $16.13 — a range of −18.5% to +20.1% from the issuance price $13.43.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,703 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-11-05 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($13.43) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AVPT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $13.43 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $13.43 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $13.56 (+1.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $12.48–$14.65
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $10.95–$16.13
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,703 windows spanning 2019-11-05 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-11-01 | −32.7% | −32.7% | +1.1% |
| 2021-11-02 | −32.0% | −33.4% | +0.0% |
| 2021-11-04 | −30.5% | −31.4% | +0.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-10-23 | +56.0% | +0.0% | +56.0% |
| 2020-11-24 | +55.5% | +0.0% | +55.5% |
| 2024-10-24 | +53.7% | −1.0% | +53.7% |
1,703 overlapping windows · 2019-11-05 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
43%
−0.8%
n=7
Feb
43%
−4.2%
n=7
Mar
0%
−8.2%
n=7
Apr
57%
+1.5%
n=7
May
71%
+15.6%
n=7
Jun
71%
+0.9%
n=7
Jul
71%
+4.3%
n=7
Aug
43%
−1.4%
n=7
Sep
29%
−4.5%
n=7
Oct
67%
+3.7%
n=6
Nov
67%
+13.6%
n=6
Dec
29%
−3.8%
n=7
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Brown Brian Michael | director | Sale | 60,000 @ $14.20 | $852K | −13.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 384,604 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Brown Brian Michael | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $13.30 | $133K | −2.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 444,604 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | Brown Brian Michael | director | Sale | 5,176 @ $13.06 | $68K | −0.6% of holding | +4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 809,664 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Brown Brian Michael | director | Sale | 4,824 @ $13.08 | $63K | −0.6% of holding | −1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 814,840 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Brown Brian Michael | director | Sale | 31,631 @ $13.18 | $417K | −3.7% of holding | +2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 819,664 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | Brown Brian Michael | director | Sale | 8,369 @ $13.00 | $109K | −1.0% of holding | −2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 851,295 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | Gong Xunkai | director | Sale | 27,998 @ $13.39 | $375K | −0.2% of holding | −20.9% | −11.1% | 14,920,668 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | Gong Xunkai | director | Sale | 32,002 @ $13.66 | $437K | −0.2% of holding | −22.1% | −13.1% | 14,948,666 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Gong Xunkai | director | Sale | 10,465 @ $13.38 | $140K | −0.1% of holding | −1.9% | −29.0% | 14,980,668 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Gong Xunkai | director | Sale | 49,535 @ $13.46 | $667K | −0.3% of holding | +0.1% | −27.3% | 14,991,133 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Gong Xunkai | director | Sale | 18,321 @ $13.80 | $253K | −0.1% of holding | −5.9% | −34.3% | 15,040,668 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Gong Xunkai | director | Sale | 41,679 @ $13.96 | $582K | −0.3% of holding | −8.0% | −35.0% | 15,058,989 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-24 | Brown Brian Michael | director | Sale | 1,848 @ $15.03 | $28K | −0.3% of holding | −14.2% | −38.5% | 631,893 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-07 | Gong Xunkai | director | Sale | 4,167 @ $15.08 | $63K | −0.0% of holding | −4.8% | −40.4% | 15,100,668 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-06 | Gong Xunkai | director | Sale | 55,833 @ $15.31 | $855K | −0.4% of holding | −9.9% | −36.9% | 15,104,835 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | Gong Xunkai | director | Sale | 28,050 @ $14.84 | $416K | −0.2% of holding | −10.8% | −34.2% | 15,160,668 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-29 | Gong Xunkai | director | Sale | 31,950 @ $15.34 | $490K | −0.2% of holding | −8.3% | −36.2% | 15,188,718 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-23 | Brown Brian Michael | director | Sale | 18,267 @ $15.59 | $285K | −2.7% of holding | −6.4% | −37.5% | 650,474 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-23 | Brown Brian Michael | director | Sale | 16,054 @ $15.53 | $249K | −2.5% of holding | −6.4% | −37.5% | 634,420 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-23 | Brown Brian Michael | director | Sale | 679 @ $15.49 | $11K | −0.1% of holding | −6.4% | −37.5% | 633,741 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Gong Xunkai | director | Sale | 2,068,966 @ $15.21 | $31.5M | −12.0% of holding | −12.4% | −34.2% | 15,220,668 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Jiang Tianyi | director | Sale | 2,068,966 @ $15.21 | $31.5M | −13.0% of holding | −12.4% | −34.2% | 13,841,853 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Ho John Chi On | director | Sale | 650,000 @ $15.21 | $9.9M | −14.8% of holding | −12.4% | −34.2% | 3,732,679 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Brown Brian Michael | director | Sale | 500,000 @ $15.21 | $7.6M | −43.8% of holding | −12.4% | −34.2% | 640,288 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Caci James | officer | Sale | 216,000 @ $15.21 | $3.3M | −50.3% of holding | −12.4% | −34.2% | 213,030 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Brown Brian Michael | director | Sale | 35,000 @ $15.47 | $541K | −2.9% of holding | −3.3% | −41.6% | 1,155,443 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-23 | Brown Brian Michael | director | Sale | 35,000 @ $18.74 | $656K | −2.9% of holding | −21.0% | −43.1% | 1,190,443 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Epstein Jeff | director | Sale | 500,000 @ $18.77 | $9.4M | −30.2% of holding | −6.6% | −48.2% | 1,157,891 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | Brown Brian Michael | director | Sale | 35,000 @ $18.19 | $637K | −2.7% of holding | −1.9% | −44.5% | 1,277,145 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-23 | Brown Brian Michael | director | Sale | 35,000 @ $15.11 | $529K | −2.6% of holding | +11.0% | −28.2% | 1,312,145 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-24 | Brown Brian Michael | director | Sale | 35,000 @ $15.40 | $539K | −2.5% of holding | +4.5% | −15.3% | 1,347,145 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
210 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Caci James | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,517 | 683,506 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Brown Brian Michael | director | Withheld for tax | 1,875 | 339,643 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Caci James | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,120 | 686,023 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Brown Brian Michael | director | Withheld for tax | 5,010 | 341,518 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Gong Xunkai | director | Withheld for tax | 3,137 | 1,861,171 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Jiang Tianyi | director | Withheld for tax | 2,914 | 2,244,311 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Caci James | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,957 | 692,143 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Gong Xunkai | director | Withheld for tax | 3,683 | 1,864,308 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Jiang Tianyi | director | Withheld for tax | 3,422 | 2,247,225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Brown Brian Michael | director | Withheld for tax | 2,834 | 346,528 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Caci James | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,369 | 696,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Gong Xunkai | director | Withheld for tax | 1,041 | 1,867,991 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Brown Brian Michael | director | Withheld for tax | 981 | 349,362 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Jiang Tianyi | director | Withheld for tax | 968 | 2,250,647 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Caci James | officer | Withheld for tax | 388 | 697,469 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Brown Brian Michael | director | Withheld for tax | 277 | 350,343 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Jiang Tianyi | director | Gift | 36,000 | 2,251,615 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Gong Xunkai | director | Option exercise | 743,529 | 1,869,032 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Gong Xunkai | director | Option exercise | 205,913 | 1,125,503 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Gong Xunkai | director | Option exercise | 205,913 | 5,369,222 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Gong Xunkai | director | Option exercise | 743,529 | 4,625,693 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Brown Brian Michael | director | Option exercise | 50,492 | 859,664 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Brown Brian Michael | director | Option exercise | 50,492 | 2,182,807 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Caci James | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,120 | 700,374 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Brown Brian Michael | director | Withheld for tax | 5,010 | 811,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Gong Xunkai | director | Withheld for tax | 3,788 | 919,590 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Jiang Tianyi | director | Withheld for tax | 2,914 | 2,287,615 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Caci James | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,517 | 697,857 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Brown Brian Michael | director | Withheld for tax | 1,875 | 809,172 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Gong Xunkai | director | Withheld for tax | 4,449 | 924,637 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Caci James | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,957 | 708,251 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Jiang Tianyi | director | Withheld for tax | 3,423 | 2,291,498 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Brown Brian Michael | director | Withheld for tax | 2,835 | 817,316 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Caci James | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,369 | 706,882 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Gong Xunkai | director | Withheld for tax | 1,259 | 923,378 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Brown Brian Michael | director | Withheld for tax | 981 | 816,335 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Jiang Tianyi | director | Withheld for tax | 969 | 2,290,529 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Caci James | officer | Withheld for tax | 388 | 706,494 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Brown Brian Michael | director | Withheld for tax | 278 | 816,057 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Brown Brian Michael | director | Withheld for tax | 27 | 820,151 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.