Issued 2026-09-16 at $12.47 · now $12.47 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AVO has typically landed between $10.43 and $14.36 — a range of −16.4% to +15.1% from the issuance price $12.47.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,475 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-10-01 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($12.47) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AVO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $12.47 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $12.47 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $12.5 (+0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $11.74–$13.26
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $10.43–$14.36
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,475 windows spanning 2020-10-01 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-11-25 | −29.1% | −29.1% | +0.0% |
| 2022-11-28 | −27.5% | −28.1% | +0.0% |
| 2022-11-30 | −26.9% | −26.9% | +0.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2021-01-13 | +42.2% | +0.0% | +42.2% |
| 2021-01-12 | +40.3% | +0.0% | +40.3% |
| 2021-01-11 | +38.0% | −0.7% | +39.1% |
1,475 overlapping windows · 2020-10-01 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+3.9%
n=6
Feb
67%
+1.2%
n=6
Mar
17%
−3.5%
n=6
Apr
67%
+0.9%
n=6
May
83%
+0.7%
n=6
Jun
67%
+0.3%
n=6
Jul
50%
+2.5%
n=6
Aug
67%
+0.0%
n=6
Sep
33%
−1.0%
n=6
Oct
40%
+0.7%
n=5
Nov
50%
−0.4%
n=6
Dec
50%
−0.4%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Barnard Stephen J | director | Sale | 34,777 @ $13.02 | $453K | −1.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,750,017 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Barnard Stephen J | director | Sale | 31,719 @ $13.01 | $413K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,753,075 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Barnard Stephen J | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $13.10 | $197K | −30.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 35,062 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-09 | Globalharvest Holdings Venture Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 592,957 @ $13.28 | $7.9M | +4.8% of holding | −4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,963,396 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Globalharvest Holdings Venture Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 687,222 @ $13.42 | $9.2M | +5.9% of holding | −10.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,370,439 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Globalharvest Holdings Venture Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 491,865 @ $13.40 | $6.6M | +4.4% of holding | −12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,683,217 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Globalharvest Holdings Venture Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 650,415 @ $12.73 | $8.3M | +6.2% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,191,352 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Pack Jay A | director | Purchase | 40,000 @ $12.10 | $484K | +7.4% of holding | +8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 579,965 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-29 | Giles Bryan E | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $12.13 | $61K | −3.3% of holding | +8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 146,931 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-23 | Taylor Bruce C. | director | Purchase | 70,283 @ $11.25 | $791K | +8.9% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 855,842 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-22 | Taylor Bruce C. | director | Purchase | 29,717 @ $11.36 | $338K | +3.9% of holding | +10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 785,559 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Taylor Bruce C. | director | Purchase | 286,410 @ $11.27 | $3.2M | +61.0% of holding | +17.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 755,842 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Taylor Bruce C. | director | Purchase | 13,590 @ $11.40 | $155K | +3.0% of holding | +18.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 469,432 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Taylor Bruce C. | director | Purchase | 300,000 @ $11.29 | $3.4M | +192.5% of holding | +22.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 455,842 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Pack Jay A | director | Purchase | 110,719 @ $11.34 | $1.3M | +25.8% of holding | +22.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 539,965 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Pack Jay A | director | Purchase | 77,831 @ $11.34 | $883K | +639.6% of holding | +22.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 90,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Taylor Bruce C. | director | Purchase | 155,842 @ $11.16 | $1.7M | ownership Δ n/a | +16.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 155,842 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Taylor Bruce C. | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $11.14 | $111K | +1.3% of holding | +16.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 755,505 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Pack Jay A | director | Purchase | 25,281 @ $11.03 | $279K | +6.3% of holding | +17.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 429,246 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Pack Jay A | director | Purchase | 12,169 @ $11.04 | $134K | ownership Δ n/a | +17.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,169 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Globalharvest Holdings Venture Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 3,695 @ $11.94 | $44K | +0.0% of holding | +8.4% | −10.5% | 9,991,577 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Globalharvest Holdings Venture Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 176,765 @ $11.87 | $2.1M | +1.8% of holding | +11.4% | −9.0% | 9,987,882 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Globalharvest Holdings Venture Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 40,509 @ $11.99 | $486K | +0.4% of holding | +17.1% | −10.1% | 9,811,117 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-22 | Globalharvest Holdings Venture Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 71,750 @ $13.80 | $990K | +0.7% of holding | +6.8% | −15.5% | 9,770,608 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-21 | Globalharvest Holdings Venture Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 237,270 @ $12.92 | $3.1M | +2.5% of holding | +10.1% | −15.1% | 9,698,858 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Globalharvest Holdings Venture Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 300,000 @ $12.50 | $3.8M | +3.3% of holding | +16.9% | −10.1% | 9,461,581 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-16 | Globalharvest Holdings Venture Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 324,295 @ $12.37 | $4.0M | +3.7% of holding | +19.4% | −7.2% | 9,161,581 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Globalharvest Holdings Venture Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 625,473 @ $12.07 | $7.5M | +8.0% of holding | +18.8% | −1.7% | 8,477,055 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Globalharvest Holdings Venture Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 360,231 @ $11.22 | $4.0M | +4.2% of holding | +18.8% | −1.7% | 8,837,286 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | Globalharvest Holdings Venture Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 13,683 @ $11.96 | $164K | +0.2% of holding | +12.4% | +0.6% | 7,850,900 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | Globalharvest Holdings Venture Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 7,472 @ $11.61 | $87K | +0.1% of holding | +18.8% | +3.0% | 7,837,217 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | Globalharvest Holdings Venture Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,480 @ $11.64 | $29K | +0.0% of holding | +21.2% | +5.3% | 7,829,745 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Globalharvest Holdings Venture Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 64,089 @ $11.57 | $742K | +0.8% of holding | +18.2% | +7.5% | 7,827,265 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Globalharvest Holdings Venture Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 88,864 @ $11.58 | $1.0M | +1.2% of holding | +15.8% | +6.1% | 7,763,176 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-31 | Globalharvest Holdings Venture Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 104,899 @ $11.59 | $1.2M | +1.4% of holding | +13.8% | +3.8% | 7,674,312 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-30 | Globalharvest Holdings Venture Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 96,190 @ $11.61 | $1.1M | +1.3% of holding | +15.3% | −1.3% | 7,569,413 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-29 | Globalharvest Holdings Venture Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 59,761 @ $11.60 | $693K | +0.8% of holding | +13.8% | −1.7% | 7,473,223 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-26 | Globalharvest Holdings Venture Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 13,679 @ $11.64 | $159K | +0.2% of holding | +13.3% | −7.7% | 7,413,462 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-24 | Globalharvest Holdings Venture Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 15,365 @ $11.60 | $178K | +0.2% of holding | +13.7% | −5.4% | 7,399,783 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-23 | Globalharvest Holdings Venture Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 112,505 @ $11.61 | $1.3M | +1.5% of holding | +16.2% | −0.9% | 7,384,418 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Globalharvest Holdings Venture Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 25,914 @ $12.48 | $323K | +0.4% of holding | −1.5% | −12.5% | 7,271,913 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Globalharvest Holdings Venture Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 5,262 @ $12.46 | $66K | +0.1% of holding | −3.5% | −10.6% | 7,245,999 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-07 | Globalharvest Holdings Venture Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 3,545 @ $12.03 | $43K | +0.0% of holding | −4.9% | −8.4% | 7,240,737 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | Globalharvest Holdings Venture Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 72,165 @ $11.94 | $862K | +1.0% of holding | −3.2% | −5.5% | 7,237,192 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | Globalharvest Holdings Venture Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 784 @ $11.70 | $9K | +0.0% of holding | +0.8% | +1.0% | 7,165,027 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Globalharvest Holdings Venture Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 49,055 @ $11.69 | $573K | +0.7% of holding | +0.5% | +3.7% | 7,164,243 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | Giles Bryan E | officer | Sale | 3,500 @ $11.43 | $40K | −2.6% of holding | +1.9% | −9.8% | 131,062 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-20 | Wiesner Juan R | officer | Sale | 75,153 @ $10.08 | $758K | −7.0% of holding | +11.2% | +6.2% | 1,000,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-19 | Wiesner Juan R | officer | Sale | 75,153 @ $10.08 | $758K | −6.5% of holding | +7.6% | +8.2% | 1,075,153 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-18 | Wiesner Juan R | officer | Sale | 21,892 @ $10.05 | $220K | −50.6% of holding | +5.3% | +9.4% | 21,412 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-08 | Taylor Family Investments, LLC | director | Sale | 930 @ $12.56 | $12K | −0.0% of holding | −11.8% | −9.7% | 7,873,638 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-03 | Taylor Family Investments, LLC | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $14.10 | $2.8M | −2.4% of holding | −19.0% | −20.6% | 7,974,568 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-02 | Taylor Family Investments, LLC | director | Sale | 110,000 @ $14.15 | $1.6M | −1.3% of holding | −21.9% | −22.3% | 8,520,002 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-02 | Gonzalez Luis A | director | Sale | 300 @ $14.49 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | −21.9% | −22.3% | 7,175,319 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-31 | Gonzalez Luis A | director | Sale | 34,022 @ $14.49 | $493K | −0.5% of holding | −20.6% | −24.2% | 7,175,619 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-31 | Barnard Stephen J | director | Sale | 2,657 @ $14.50 | $39K | −0.1% of holding | −20.6% | −24.2% | 1,784,794 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-31 | Barnard Stephen J | director | Sale | 2,656 @ $14.50 | $39K | −0.1% of holding | −20.6% | −24.2% | 1,784,794 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-30 | Gonzalez Luis A | director | Sale | 18,278 @ $14.49 | $265K | −6.6% of holding | −20.0% | −23.3% | 256,722 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-30 | Giles Bryan E | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $14.40 | $216K | −10.9% of holding | −20.0% | −23.3% | 122,137 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-30 | Barnard Stephen J | director | Sale | 3,516 @ $14.51 | $51K | −0.2% of holding | −20.0% | −23.3% | 1,787,451 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
85 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | HOLMGREN KATHLEEN M | director | Award / grant | 7,440 | 7,440 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | HOLMGREN KATHLEEN M | director | Award / grant | 26,384 | 33,824 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Globalharvest Holdings Venture Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 549,360 | 10,540,937 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Globalharvest Holdings Venture Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 549,360 | 10,540,937 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-09 | Gonzalez Luis A | director | Withheld for tax | 3,271 | 45,751 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-09 | Barnard Stephen J | director | Award / grant | 31,554 | 287,459 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-09 | Gonzalez Luis A | director | Award / grant | 8,240 | 49,022 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-09 | Flanagan Laura Jean | director | Award / grant | 8,240 | 15,487 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-09 | Stone Douglas M | director | Award / grant | 8,240 | 11,637 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-09 | Taylor Bruce C. | director | Award / grant | 8,240 | 745,505 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-09 | Sims Michael B | director | Award / grant | 8,240 | 18,208 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-09 | Pawlowski John | officer | Award / grant | 42,071 | 121,267 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-09 | Sarsam Tony B | director | Award / grant | 8,240 | 33,270 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-09 | Pack Jay A | director | Award / grant | 8,240 | 403,965 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-09 | SEGRE LINDA B | director | Award / grant | 8,240 | 65,221 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-05 | Pawlowski John | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,286 | 79,196 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Wu Joanne C | officer | Award / grant | 7,063 | 93,892 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-09 | Globalharvest Holdings Venture Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Code L | 682 | 7,851,582 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | Barnard Stephen J | director | Withheld for tax | 38,297 | 255,905 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | Giles Bryan E | officer | Withheld for tax | 17,621 | 151,931 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | Wu Joanne C | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,650 | 86,829 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | Ricketts Damian | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,446 | 13,656 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Barnard Stephen J | director | Withheld for tax | 10,357 | 186,387 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Giles Bryan E | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,315 | 125,747 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Barnard Stephen J | director | Withheld for tax | 5,232 | 172,953 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Pawlowski John | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,005 | 69,377 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Giles Bryan E | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,296 | 114,780 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Wu Joanne C | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,058 | 65,775 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Wu Joanne C | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,085 | 57,877 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Ricketts Damian | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,278 | 5,853 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Ricketts Damian | officer | Withheld for tax | 290 | 4,957 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Wu Joanne C | officer | Award / grant | 16,421 | 74,298 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Wu Joanne C | officer | Award / grant | 25,181 | 99,479 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Barnard Stephen J | director | Award / grant | 20,526 | 193,479 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Giles Bryan E | officer | Award / grant | 34,246 | 169,552 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Giles Bryan E | officer | Award / grant | 20,526 | 135,306 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Pawlowski John | officer | Award / grant | 17,105 | 86,482 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Barnard Stephen J | director | Award / grant | 100,723 | 294,202 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Ricketts Damian | officer | Award / grant | 3,703 | 8,660 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Ricketts Damian | officer | Award / grant | 9,442 | 18,102 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.