AVNWAviat Networks, Inc.Technology · Communication Equipmentas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $20.18 · now $20.18 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AVNW has typically landed between $16.67 and $24.31 — a range of −17.4% to +20.5% from the issuance price $20.18.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($20.18) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AVNW has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $20.18 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$16.67worst · -17.4%$24.31best · +20.5%
  • now $20.18 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $20.05 (-0.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $18.42–$21.68
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $16.67–$24.31
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2009-02-03−48.9%−48.9%+0.0%
2009-01-29−48.1%−48.1%+0.4%
2009-02-02−46.7%−48.3%+0.0%
3 best
2020-11-05+92.4%+0.0%+92.4%
2020-10-30+90.6%+0.0%+95.0%
2021-01-14+89.6%+0.0%+89.6%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
60%
+0.9%
n=20
Feb
55%
+4.1%
n=20
Mar
35%
−1.9%
n=20
Apr
30%
−2.2%
n=20
May
40%
−0.8%
n=20
Jun
55%
+3.5%
n=20
Jul
45%
−1.0%
n=20
Aug
60%
+2.4%
n=20
Sep
45%
−2.5%
n=20
Oct
25%
−3.8%
n=20
Nov
35%
+3.6%
n=20
Dec
55%
+2.7%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$27$152026-08-31: 3 insider sales, $320K — SMITH PETE A, Boase Erin, Croke Gary2026-02-09: 1 insider sale, $450K — SMITH PETE A2026-02-06: 1 insider sale, $181K — Croke Gary2025-11-11: 2 insider sales, $202K — SMITH PETE A, TATEN BRUCE M.2025-09-02: 1 insider sale, $151K — Croke Gary2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $151K2025-11: 2 open-market sales, $202K2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $631K2026-08: 3 open-market sales, $320K↑ buys↓ salesofficer SMITH PETE A — Sale on 2026-08-31, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Boase Erin — Sale on 2026-08-31, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Croke Gary — Sale on 2026-08-31, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer SMITH PETE A — Sale on 2026-02-09, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Croke Gary — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer SMITH PETE A — Sale on 2025-11-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector TATEN BRUCE M. — Sale on 2025-11-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Croke Gary — Sale on 2025-09-02, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-31SMITH PETE AofficerSale14,264 @ $19.69$281K−3.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open367,840Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-31Boase ErinofficerSale1,347 @ $19.69$27K−4.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open28,275Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-31Croke GaryofficerSale629 @ $19.69$12K−1.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open42,479Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-09SMITH PETE AofficerSale17,086 @ $26.33$450K−4.5% of holding+1.9%−31.4%358,747Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-06Croke GaryofficerSale6,914 @ $26.20$181K−13.6% of holding−0.4%−33.2%43,868Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-11SMITH PETE AofficerSale5,350 @ $23.39$125K−1.5% of holding−4.2%−38.1%349,447Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-11TATEN BRUCE M.directorSale3,268 @ $23.39$76K−13.8% of holding−4.2%−38.1%20,391Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-02Croke GaryofficerSale6,742 @ $22.41$151K−13.0% of holding−3.6%+11.7%45,159Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-03Boase ErinofficerSale5,634 @ $25.00$141K−20.2% of holding−15.1%−22.8%22,290Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-01Boase ErinofficerSale200 @ $25.00$5K−0.7% of holding−15.3%−26.0%27,924Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-24Boase ErinofficerSale4,767 @ $23.07$110K−14.5% of holding−6.1%−23.2%28,124Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-09Boase ErinofficerSale1,169 @ $23.00$27K−4.0% of holding+1.1%−22.7%28,124Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

46 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-12SMITH PETE AofficerWithheld for tax9,927417,954Form 4
2026-09-12Boase ErinofficerWithheld for tax44234,044Form 4
2026-09-03Boase ErinofficerAward / grant6,21134,486Form 4
2026-09-03SMITH PETE AofficerAward / grant60,041427,881Form 4
2026-09-03Schmidt Andrew CofficerAward / grant9,47425,121Form 4
2026-09-03Croke GaryofficerAward / grant5,83948,318Form 4
2026-08-28SMITH PETE AofficerAward / grant23,357382,104Form 4
2026-08-28Croke GaryofficerAward / grant1,20843,108Form 4
2026-08-28Boase ErinofficerAward / grant3,82629,622Form 4
2026-07-07Croke GaryofficerWithheld for tax1,96841,900Form 4
2026-02-09SMITH PETE AofficerOption exercise26,386375,833Form 4
2026-02-09SMITH PETE AofficerOption exercise26,38626,386Form 4
2026-02-06Croke GaryofficerOption exercise6,91450,782Form 4
2026-02-06Croke GaryofficerOption exercise6,9140Form 4
2025-12-03Schmidt Andrew CofficerAward / grant15,64715,647Form 4
2025-11-07Ingram BryandirectorAward / grant5,48025,162Form 4
2025-11-07Klein MicheledirectorAward / grant5,48028,041Form 4
2025-11-07Halliday Scott KdirectorAward / grant5,4808,630Form 4
2025-11-07TATEN BRUCE M.directorAward / grant5,48023,659Form 4
2025-11-07Akkaraju LaxmidirectorAward / grant5,48018,765Form 4
2025-11-07MUTCH JOHNdirectorAward / grant5,48095,618Form 4
2025-10-10SMITH PETE AofficerWithheld for tax8,990354,797Form 4
2025-10-10Boase ErinofficerWithheld for tax84725,796Form 4
2025-10-10Croke GaryofficerWithheld for tax78643,868Form 4
2025-10-10Fredrickson Andrew MichaelofficerWithheld for tax2149,549Form 4
2025-09-26Fredrickson Andrew MichaelofficerAward / grant1,9417,101Form 4
2025-09-26Fredrickson Andrew MichaelofficerAward / grant2,6629,763Form 4
2025-09-12Boase ErinofficerAward / grant5,43726,643Form 4
2025-09-12SMITH PETE AofficerAward / grant70,316363,787Form 4
2025-09-09SMITH PETE AofficerWithheld for tax78293,471Form 4
2025-09-02Croke GaryofficerOption exercise6,74251,901Form 4
2025-09-02Croke GaryofficerOption exercise6,7420Form 4
2025-09-01SMITH PETE AofficerWithheld for tax13,834293,549Form 4
2025-09-01Boase ErinofficerWithheld for tax69421,206Form 4
2025-09-01Croke GaryofficerWithheld for tax50444,654Form 4
2025-08-28SMITH PETE AofficerWithheld for tax4,052307,383Form 4
2025-08-28Boase ErinofficerWithheld for tax38921,901Form 4
2025-08-28Croke GaryofficerWithheld for tax18145,159Form 4
2025-07-07Croke GaryofficerAward / grant16,44745,340Form 4
2025-06-24Boase ErinofficerOption exercise4,76732,891Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.