Issued 2026-09-25 at $5.17 · now $5.17 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, AVIR has typically landed between $4.08 and $6.27 — a range of −21.0% to +21.4% from the issuance price $5.17.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,460 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-10-30 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($5.17) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AVIR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $5.17 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $5.17 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $5.07 (-2.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.63–$5.51
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.08–$6.27
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-10-18 | −78.6% | −78.6% | +0.0% |
| 2021-10-07 | −73.8% | −73.8% | +1.6% |
| 2021-10-04 | −73.1% | −73.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2021-01-04 | +113.1% | +0.0% | +113.1% |
| 2020-12-31 | +100.6% | −0.9% | +100.6% |
| 2021-01-07 | +99.8% | +0.0% | +99.8% |
1,460 overlapping windows · 2020-10-30 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- December 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: C-Forward: Efficacy and Safety of BEM/RZR vs SOF/VEL in Subjects With Chronic HCV (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-18 | Murphy Polly A. | director | Purchase | 6,100 @ $4.17 | $25K | +7.1% of holding | +16.6% | −5.7% | 92,145 | Form 4 · filed 367 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-16 | BERGER FRANKLIN M | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $3.36 | $34K | −2.1% of holding | −10.3% | −3.9% | 476,897 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-15 | BERGER FRANKLIN M | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $3.19 | $48K | −3.1% of holding | −8.0% | −5.3% | 466,897 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-10 | BERGER FRANKLIN M | director | Sale | 359,606 @ $2.85 | $1.0M | −44.3% of holding | +12.1% | +7.8% | 451,897 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-09-19 | Sommadossi Jean-Pierre | director | Sale | 1,841 @ $4.00 | $7K | −0.0% of holding | −2.7% | −17.7% | 5,866,025 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-09-18 | Sommadossi Jean-Pierre | director | Sale | 22,187 @ $4.03 | $89K | −0.4% of holding | −10.6% | −20.7% | 5,867,866 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-09-17 | Sommadossi Jean-Pierre | director | Sale | 33,941 @ $4.05 | $137K | −0.6% of holding | −10.0% | −22.7% | 5,890,053 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-06-20 | Polsky Bruce | director | Sale | 17,544 @ $3.49 | $61K | −21.1% of holding | +8.5% | −15.5% | 65,606 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-06-05 | Sommadossi Jean-Pierre | director | Sale | 1,006 @ $4.00 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | −21.4% | −35.6% | 5,923,994 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
165 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | Adams Jerome M. | director | Option exercise | 29,600 | 92,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Adams Jerome M. | director | Option exercise | 29,600 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Adams Jerome M. | director | Award / grant | 26,700 | 26,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Adams Jerome M. | director | Award / grant | 37,700 | 37,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | KIRSCH ARTHUR S | director | Award / grant | 26,700 | 26,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | KIRSCH ARTHUR S | director | Award / grant | 37,700 | 37,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Murphy Polly A. | director | Option exercise | 29,600 | 121,745 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Murphy Polly A. | director | Option exercise | 29,600 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Murphy Polly A. | director | Award / grant | 26,700 | 26,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Murphy Polly A. | director | Award / grant | 37,700 | 37,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Polsky Bruce | director | Option exercise | 29,600 | 124,806 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Polsky Bruce | director | Option exercise | 29,600 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Polsky Bruce | director | Award / grant | 26,700 | 26,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Polsky Bruce | director | Award / grant | 37,700 | 37,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | DUNCAN BARBARA GAYLE | director | Option exercise | 29,600 | 92,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | DUNCAN BARBARA GAYLE | director | Option exercise | 29,600 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | DUNCAN BARBARA GAYLE | director | Award / grant | 26,700 | 26,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | DUNCAN BARBARA GAYLE | director | Award / grant | 37,700 | 37,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Berman Howard | director | Award / grant | 26,700 | 26,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Berman Howard | director | Award / grant | 37,700 | 37,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | BERGER FRANKLIN M | director | Option exercise | 29,600 | 536,097 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | BERGER FRANKLIN M | director | Option exercise | 29,600 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | BERGER FRANKLIN M | director | Award / grant | 26,700 | 26,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | BERGER FRANKLIN M | director | Award / grant | 37,700 | 37,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Lucidi Bruno | director | Option exercise | 29,600 | 142,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Lucidi Bruno | director | Option exercise | 29,600 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Lucidi Bruno | director | Award / grant | 26,700 | 26,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Lucidi Bruno | director | Award / grant | 37,700 | 37,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Corcoran Andrea | officer | Option exercise | 60,000 | 823,576 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Corcoran Andrea | officer | Option exercise | 60,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Sommadossi Jean-Pierre | director | Option exercise | 300,000 | 767,830 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Sommadossi Jean-Pierre | director | Option exercise | 300,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Sommadossi Jean-Pierre | director | Withheld for tax | 106,093 | 467,830 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Corcoran Andrea | officer | Withheld for tax | 16,104 | 763,576 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Horga Maria Arantxa | officer | Withheld for tax | 16,073 | 96,086 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Hammond Janet MJ | officer | Withheld for tax | 14,136 | 127,665 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Foster Wayne | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,132 | 79,329 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Vavricka John | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,570 | 82,594 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Foster Wayne | officer | Award / grant | 108,000 | 108,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Sommadossi Jean-Pierre | director | Option exercise | 173,466 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.