Issued 2026-08-13 at $5.06 · now $5.07 (2026-08-13, +0.2% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, AVIR has typically landed between $3.98 and $6.22 — a range of −21.3% to +22.8% from the issuance price $5.06.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,430 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-10-30 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($5.06) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AVIR has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $5.06 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $5.07 (+0.2%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $4.96 (-2.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.52–$5.39
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.98–$6.22
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-10-18 | −78.6% | −78.6% | +0.0% |
| 2021-10-07 | −73.8% | −73.8% | +1.6% |
| 2021-10-04 | −73.1% | −73.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2021-01-04 | +113.1% | +0.0% | +113.1% |
| 2020-12-31 | +100.6% | −0.9% | +100.6% |
| 2021-01-07 | +99.8% | +0.0% | +99.8% |
1,430 overlapping windows · 2020-10-30 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- September 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: C-BEYOND: Efficacy and Safety of BEM/RZR vs. SOF/VEL in Subjects With Chronic HCV (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- December 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: C-Forward: Efficacy and Safety of BEM/RZR vs SOF/VEL in Subjects With Chronic HCV (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders iOpen-market share purchases and sales by the company's own officers and directors, by filing date.
Last 90 days · as of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filing date
No insider transactions on record in the last 90 days.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.