Issued 2026-09-25 at $352.81 · now $352.81 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, AVGO has typically landed between $302.73 and $431.48 — a range of −14.2% to +22.3% from the issuance price $352.81.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,290 overlapping 1 month windows · 2009-08-06 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($352.81) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AVGO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $352.81 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $352.81 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $364.66 (+3.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $340.19–$389.13
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $302.73–$431.48
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −46.0% | −46.0% | +1.6% |
| 2020-02-13 | −42.1% | −42.1% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-19 | −38.4% | −46.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-18 | +61.1% | +0.0% | +62.1% |
| 2024-11-25 | +49.3% | −3.1% | +51.7% |
| 2024-11-27 | +47.9% | +0.0% | +56.6% |
4,290 overlapping windows · 2009-08-06 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$188.37
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$205.23
- Analyst target · range $400.00–$582.00$515.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$352.81
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~18 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Sale | 230,031 @ $355.50 | $81.8M | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 36,097,830 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-23 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Sale | 186,809 @ $354.71 | $66.3M | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 36,327,861 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-23 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Sale | 85,221 @ $356.58 | $30.4M | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 36,012,609 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-23 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Sale | 50,998 @ $357.52 | $18.2M | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 35,961,611 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-23 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Sale | 44,618 @ $358.42 | $16.0M | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 35,916,993 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-23 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Sale | 22,946 @ $355.55 | $8.2M | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 29,938,470 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-23 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Sale | 22,579 @ $359.44 | $8.1M | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 35,894,414 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-23 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Sale | 22,624 @ $354.75 | $8.0M | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 29,961,416 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-23 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Sale | 11,309 @ $361.79 | $4.1M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 35,882,698 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-23 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Sale | 10,058 @ $356.59 | $3.6M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 29,928,412 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-23 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Sale | 6,959 @ $357.66 | $2.5M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 29,921,453 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-23 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Sale | 4,560 @ $358.47 | $1.6M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 29,916,893 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-23 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Sale | 2,162 @ $359.48 | $777K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 29,914,731 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-23 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Sale | 512 @ $361.48 | $185K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 29,913,822 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-23 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Sale | 407 @ $361.18 | $147K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 35,894,007 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-23 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Sale | 397 @ $360.76 | $143K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 29,914,334 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-10 | Brazeal Mark David | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $401.33 | $10.0M | −11.4% of holding | +3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 194,989 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Brazeal Mark David | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $379.19 | $9.5M | −10.2% of holding | +5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 219,989 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | DELLY GAYLA J | director | Sale | 1,890 @ $385.38 | $728K | −5.7% of holding | +5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,326 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | PAGE JUSTINE | director | Sale | 1,602 @ $373.86 | $599K | −8.4% of holding | +1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,426 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | Brazeal Mark David | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $387.00 | $9.7M | −9.3% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 244,989 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Sale | 53,722 @ $385.57 | $20.7M | −0.1% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,591,108 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Sale | 49,805 @ $380.57 | $19.0M | −0.2% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,436,039 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Sale | 48,996 @ $380.57 | $18.6M | −0.1% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,787,870 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Sale | 47,510 @ $385.61 | $18.3M | −0.2% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,254,638 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Sale | 43,302 @ $384.58 | $16.7M | −0.1% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,644,830 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Sale | 41,290 @ $384.63 | $15.9M | −0.1% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,302,148 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Sale | 36,661 @ $381.68 | $14.0M | −0.1% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,751,209 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Sale | 36,188 @ $383.69 | $13.9M | −0.1% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,688,132 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Sale | 34,517 @ $381.67 | $13.2M | −0.1% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,401,522 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Sale | 32,950 @ $383.69 | $12.6M | −0.1% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,343,438 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Sale | 33,346 @ $378.51 | $12.6M | −0.1% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,867,777 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Sale | 30,911 @ $379.76 | $11.7M | −0.1% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,836,866 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Sale | 30,456 @ $378.50 | $11.5M | −0.1% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,509,917 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Sale | 26,889 @ $382.63 | $10.3M | −0.1% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,724,320 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Sale | 25,134 @ $382.62 | $9.6M | −0.1% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,376,388 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Sale | 24,073 @ $379.69 | $9.1M | −0.1% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,485,844 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Sale | 23,253 @ $377.61 | $8.8M | −0.1% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,901,123 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Sale | 21,603 @ $377.64 | $8.2M | −0.1% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,540,373 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Sale | 6,478 @ $386.39 | $2.5M | −0.0% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,248,160 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Sale | 6,280 @ $386.39 | $2.4M | −0.0% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,584,828 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Sale | 660 @ $388.01 | $256K | −0.0% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,584,168 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Sale | 217 @ $388.17 | $84K | −0.0% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,247,943 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Brazeal Mark David | officer | Sale | 797 @ $397.23 | $317K | −0.3% of holding | −4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 270,952 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Brazeal Mark David | officer | Sale | 695 @ $396.24 | $275K | −0.3% of holding | −4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 271,749 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Brazeal Mark David | officer | Sale | 643 @ $395.37 | $254K | −0.2% of holding | −4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 272,444 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Brazeal Mark David | officer | Sale | 570 @ $398.25 | $227K | −0.2% of holding | −4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 270,382 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Brazeal Mark David | officer | Sale | 408 @ $393.04 | $160K | −0.1% of holding | −4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 273,455 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Brazeal Mark David | officer | Sale | 368 @ $394.09 | $145K | −0.1% of holding | −4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 273,087 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Brazeal Mark David | officer | Sale | 357 @ $399.18 | $143K | −0.1% of holding | −4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 270,025 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Brazeal Mark David | officer | Sale | 274 @ $391.73 | $107K | −0.1% of holding | −4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 273,863 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Brazeal Mark David | officer | Sale | 242 @ $390.59 | $95K | −0.1% of holding | −4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 274,137 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Brazeal Mark David | officer | Sale | 220 @ $386.15 | $85K | −0.1% of holding | −4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 274,489 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Brazeal Mark David | officer | Sale | 110 @ $388.96 | $43K | −0.0% of holding | −4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 274,379 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Brazeal Mark David | officer | Sale | 76 @ $384.00 | $29K | −0.0% of holding | −4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 274,738 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Brazeal Mark David | officer | Sale | 36 @ $400.29 | $14K | −0.0% of holding | −4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 269,989 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Brazeal Mark David | officer | Sale | 29 @ $385.16 | $11K | −0.0% of holding | −4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 274,709 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Brazeal Mark David | officer | Sale | 776 @ $379.43 | $294K | −0.3% of holding | −0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 276,801 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Brazeal Mark David | officer | Sale | 457 @ $380.40 | $174K | −0.2% of holding | −0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 276,344 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Brazeal Mark David | officer | Sale | 372 @ $378.58 | $141K | −0.1% of holding | −0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 277,577 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
29 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Gift | 72,474 | 35,810,224 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Brazeal Mark David | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,059 | 186,930 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | O'Toole Amie Thuener | director | Withheld for tax | 1,554 | 48,597 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | DELLY GAYLA J | director | Gift | 500 | 30,826 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Gift | 263,903 | 29,984,040 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Gift | 69,498 | 36,514,670 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Gift | 1,890 | 30,561,976 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Gift | 1,890 | 864 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Gift | 1,602 | 2,754 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Gift | 1,602 | 30,560,086 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | O'Toole Amie Thuener | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,151 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Award / grant | 864 | 4,356 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Low Check Kian | director | Withheld for tax | 117 | 115,247 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | You Harry L. | director | Award / grant | 864 | 37,466 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Bryant Diane M | director | Award / grant | 864 | 8,926 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Hao Kenneth | director | Award / grant | 864 | 4,806 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Low Check Kian | director | Award / grant | 864 | 115,364 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | DELLY GAYLA J | director | Award / grant | 864 | 33,216 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | PAGE JUSTINE | director | Award / grant | 864 | 19,028 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | TAN HOCK E | director | Gift | 22,000 | 110,836 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Gift | 172,799 | 30,558,484 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Gift | 83,005 | 36,924,376 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Gift | 157,090 | 30,740,709 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | SAMUELI HENRY | director | Gift | 9,426 | 30,731,283 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Kawwas Charlie B | officer | Award / grant | 125,000 | 139,392 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Brazeal Mark David | officer | Award / grant | 151,250 | 361,823 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Velaga S. Ram | officer | Award / grant | 125,000 | 160,458 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Spears Kirsten M. | officer | Award / grant | 110,640 | 387,877 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-16 | PAGE JUSTINE | director | Gift | 400 | 20,182 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | sale | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-05 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Shelley Moore Capito | Senate | sale | 2026-05-07 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | sale | 2026-05-07 | 2026-04-27 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | sale | 2026-05-07 | 2026-04-27 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | purchase | 2026-04-30 | 2026-03-31 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-06 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-25 | $1–15K |
| Julia Letlow | House | sale | 2026-03-12 | 2026-02-12 | $1–15K |
| Tony Wied | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-19 | $1M+ |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $15–50K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.