AVEX · TickerCove

AVEXAevex Corp.Industrials · Aerospace & Defenseas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $16.17 · now $16.17 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AVEX has typically landed between $10.19 and $25.85 — a range of −37.0% to +59.9% from the issuance price $16.17.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

86 overlapping 1 month windows · 2026-04-15 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($16.17) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$16.17 · 10% of range

$13.32 low$40.48 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Distribution ranges onlyiThis name has too little trading history to publish a calibrated probability, so we show its distribution ranges only — no directional call. Its record is still building.

No directional probability — ranges below.

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−15.2%

typical move · IQR 39.9%

−37.0%worst (p90)+59.9%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where AVEX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $16.17 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $16.17 (+0.0%)
typical $13.71 (-15.2%)
middle 50% $10.48–$16.94
90% range $10.19–$25.85

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 86 windows spanning 2026-04-15 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2026-05-28	−55.7%	−62.1%	+0.0%
2026-06-01	−49.2%	−60.3%	+0.0%
2026-05-26	−46.6%	−46.9%	+40.1%
3 best
2026-07-20	+49.5%	+0.0%	+70.8%
2026-07-17	+39.4%	−8.1%	+56.9%
2026-07-13	+39.2%	−16.3%	+39.3%

86 overlapping windows · 2026-04-15 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-05	MADISON DEARBORN PARTNERS LLC	tenPercentOwner	Sale	2,273,843 @ $25.99	$59.1M	−9.0% of holding	−25.5%	not yet — horizon still open	22,861,457	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-04-16	Raduenz Brian	director	Purchase	50,000 @ $20.00	$1.0M	ownership Δ n/a	+22.2%	not yet — horizon still open	50,000	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-16	Booth Todd	officer	Purchase	13,000 @ $20.00	$260K	ownership Δ n/a	+22.2%	not yet — horizon still open	13,000	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-04-16	Hush Brett P	officer	Purchase	10,000 @ $20.00	$200K	ownership Δ n/a	+22.2%	not yet — horizon still open	10,000	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-16	Jackson Michael Andrew	officer	Purchase	650 @ $20.00	$13K	ownership Δ n/a	+22.2%	not yet — horizon still open	650	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-16	Wells Charles Roger IV	director	Purchase	500 @ $20.00	$10K	ownership Δ n/a	+22.2%	not yet — horizon still open	500	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

40 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-05	MADISON DEARBORN PARTNERS LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	2,611	22,858,846	Form 4
2026-06-05	MADISON DEARBORN PARTNERS LLC	tenPercentOwner	Disposition	4,757,448	58,540,076	Form 4
2026-06-05	MADISON DEARBORN PARTNERS LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	975,246	57,564,830	Form 4
2026-06-05	MADISON DEARBORN PARTNERS LLC	tenPercentOwner	Disposition	4,757,448	58,540,076	Form 4
2026-06-05	MADISON DEARBORN PARTNERS LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	975,246	57,564,830	Form 4
2026-06-05	Raduenz Brian	director	Disposition	104,722	0	Form 4
2026-06-05	Raduenz Brian	director	Disposition	104,722	0	Form 4
2026-06-05	MADISON DEARBORN PARTNERS LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	2,611	22,858,846	Form 4
2026-06-05	MADISON DEARBORN PARTNERS LLC	tenPercentOwner	Disposition	4,757,448	58,540,076	Form 4
2026-06-05	MADISON DEARBORN PARTNERS LLC	tenPercentOwner	Disposition	4,757,448	58,540,076	Form 4
2026-06-05	MADISON DEARBORN PARTNERS LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	975,246	57,564,830	Form 4
2026-06-05	MADISON DEARBORN PARTNERS LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	2,611	22,858,846	Form 4
2026-06-05	MADISON DEARBORN PARTNERS LLC	tenPercentOwner	Disposition	4,757,448	58,540,076	Form 4
2026-06-05	MADISON DEARBORN PARTNERS LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	975,246	57,564,830	Form 4
2026-06-05	MADISON DEARBORN PARTNERS LLC	tenPercentOwner	Disposition	4,757,448	58,540,076	Form 4
2026-06-05	MADISON DEARBORN PARTNERS LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	975,246	57,564,830	Form 4
2026-06-05	MADISON DEARBORN PARTNERS LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	2,611	22,858,846	Form 4
2026-06-05	MADISON DEARBORN PARTNERS LLC	tenPercentOwner	Disposition	4,757,448	58,540,076	Form 4
2026-06-05	MADISON DEARBORN PARTNERS LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	975,246	57,564,830	Form 4
2026-06-05	MADISON DEARBORN PARTNERS LLC	tenPercentOwner	Disposition	4,757,448	58,540,076	Form 4
2026-06-05	MADISON DEARBORN PARTNERS LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	975,246	57,564,830	Form 4
2026-06-05	MADISON DEARBORN PARTNERS LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	2,611	22,858,846	Form 4
2026-06-05	MADISON DEARBORN PARTNERS LLC	tenPercentOwner	Disposition	4,757,448	58,540,076	Form 4
2026-06-05	MADISON DEARBORN PARTNERS LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	975,246	57,564,830	Form 4
2026-06-05	MADISON DEARBORN PARTNERS LLC	tenPercentOwner	Disposition	4,757,448	58,540,076	Form 4
2026-06-05	MADISON DEARBORN PARTNERS LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	975,246	57,564,830	Form 4
2026-06-05	Raduenz Brian	director	Disposition	104,722	0	Form 4
2026-06-05	Raduenz Brian	director	Disposition	104,722	0	Form 4
2026-06-05	MADISON DEARBORN PARTNERS LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	975,246	57,564,830	Form 4
2026-05-12	Klein Matthew	director	Award / grant	8,250	8,250	Form 4
2026-05-12	Wells Charles Roger IV	director	Award / grant	94,000	94,000	Form 4
2026-05-12	FELDMANN BRADLEY H	director	Award / grant	8,250	8,250	Form 4
2026-05-12	Hush Brett P	officer	Award / grant	32,320	42,320	Form 4
2026-05-12	Raduenz Brian	director	Award / grant	94,000	144,000	Form 4
2026-05-12	Spacapan Benjamin	director	Award / grant	8,250	8,250	Form 4
2026-05-12	Levitan Brandon	director	Award / grant	8,250	8,250	Form 4
2026-05-12	NORTON MATTHEW W	director	Award / grant	8,250	8,250	Form 4
2026-05-12	Jackson Michael Andrew	officer	Award / grant	19,760	20,410	Form 4
2026-05-12	Booth Todd	officer	Award / grant	29,220	42,220	Form 4
2026-05-12	Morrison Christine M.	officer	Award / grant	28,204	28,204	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.