Issued 2026-09-16 at $27.65 · now $27.65 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AVBP has typically landed between $22.41 and $35.00 — a range of −19.0% to +26.6% from the issuance price $27.65.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
641 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-01-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($27.65) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AVBP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $27.65 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $27.65 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $27.75 (+0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $24.97–$30.53
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $22.41–$35
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-02-20 | −28.7% | −28.8% | +0.0% |
| 2025-02-19 | −27.9% | −28.1% | +1.0% |
| 2025-02-25 | −27.5% | −27.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-03-30 | +43.0% | +0.0% | +49.4% |
| 2026-03-24 | +41.2% | −4.3% | +43.0% |
| 2026-03-20 | +40.7% | −4.6% | +42.6% |
641 overlapping windows · 2024-01-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- February 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of Firmonertinib Compared With Investigator's Choice of EGFR Inhibitor as First-Line Treatment in Participants Who Have Locally Advanced or Metastatic NSCLC With EGFR P-Loop and Alpha C-Helix Compressing (PACC) Uncommon Mutations (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-10 | HILLHOUSE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, LTD. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 555,555 @ $23.37 | $13.0M | −12.4% of holding | −17.5% | +16.9% | 3,929,117 | Form 4 · filed 55 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
25 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | Peterson Kristine | director | Award / grant | 13,562 | 13,562 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Nolet Chris | director | Award / grant | 13,562 | 13,562 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Parsey Merdad | director | Award / grant | 13,562 | 13,562 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Hohneker John | director | Award / grant | 13,562 | 13,562 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | LaChapelle Robin | officer | Award / grant | 130,000 | 130,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Kung Winston | director | Award / grant | 140,000 | 140,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Kastenmayer James Paul | officer | Award / grant | 130,000 | 130,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Yao Zhengbin | director | Award / grant | 550,000 | 550,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Lutzker Stuart | director | Award / grant | 150,000 | 150,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-11 | LaChapelle Robin | officer | Option exercise | 6,503 | 135,736 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-11 | LaChapelle Robin | officer | Option exercise | 2,600 | 129,233 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-11 | LaChapelle Robin | officer | Option exercise | 2,050 | 126,633 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-11 | LaChapelle Robin | officer | Option exercise | 2,050 | 410 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-11 | LaChapelle Robin | officer | Option exercise | 2,600 | 12,873 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-11 | LaChapelle Robin | officer | Option exercise | 6,503 | 6,370 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | Peterson Kristine | director | Award / grant | 15,502 | 15,502 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | Parsey Merdad | director | Award / grant | 15,502 | 15,502 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | Nolet Chris | director | Award / grant | 15,502 | 15,502 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | Hohneker John | director | Award / grant | 15,502 | 15,502 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-28 | Parsey Merdad | director | Award / grant | 28,346 | 28,346 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-03 | Kung Winston | director | Award / grant | 120,000 | 120,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-03 | Kastenmayer James Paul | officer | Award / grant | 102,000 | 102,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-03 | LaChapelle Robin | officer | Award / grant | 120,000 | 120,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-03 | Lutzker Stuart | director | Award / grant | 120,000 | 120,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-03 | Yao Zhengbin | director | Award / grant | 380,000 | 380,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.