AVBHAvidbank Holdings, Inc.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $31.35 · now $31.35 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AVBH has typically landed between $29.47 and $34.96 — a range of −6.0% to +11.5% from the issuance price $31.35.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

260 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-08-05 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($31.35) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AVBH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $31.35 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$29.47worst · -6.0%$34.96best · +11.5%
  • now $31.35 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $31.77 (+1.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $30.49–$33.05
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $29.47–$34.96
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 260 windows spanning 2025-08-05 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2026-02-17−11.3%−11.3%+0.0%
2026-02-09−10.4%−10.4%+0.0%
2026-02-13−10.1%−10.1%+0.2%
3 best
2025-08-05+16.4%+0.0%+16.4%
2026-01-02+16.1%+0.0%+16.1%
2026-01-07+15.7%−0.1%+15.7%

260 overlapping windows · 2025-08-05 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
100%
+9.6%
n=1
Feb
0%
−0.8%
n=1
Mar
0%
−1.3%
n=1
Apr
100%
+4.0%
n=1
May
100%
+3.8%
n=1
Jun
100%
+7.3%
n=1
Jul
0%
−1.3%
n=1
Aug
0%
−3.6%
n=1
Sep
50%
+0.7%
n=2
Oct
100%
+2.5%
n=1
Nov
100%
+0.1%
n=1
Dec
100%
+1.6%
n=1

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$34$242026-09-09: 1 insider sale, $47K — ROSINUS MIKE2026-08-14: 1 insider sale, $331K — WASSON ARTHUR2026-03-16: 1 insider sale, $1.6M — ROSINUS MIKE2026-03-13: 1 insider sale, $219K — ROSINUS MIKE2026-03-10: 1 insider sale, $546K — ROSINUS MIKE2026-03-09: 1 insider sale, $445K — ROSINUS MIKE2026-03-06: 1 insider sale, $271K — ROSINUS MIKE2026-03-04: 1 insider sale, $470K — ROSINUS MIKE2026-03-02: 1 insider sale, $72K — ROSINUS MIKE2026-02-27: 1 insider sale, $30K — ROSINUS MIKE2026-02-26: 1 insider sale, $103K — ROSINUS MIKE2026-02-25: 1 insider sale, $580K — ROSINUS MIKE2026-02-23: 1 insider sale, $151K — ROSINUS MIKE2026-02-20: 1 insider sale, $151K — ROSINUS MIKE2026-02-19: 1 insider sale, $126K — ROSINUS MIKE2026-02-18: 1 insider sale, $351K — ROSINUS MIKE2026-02-17: 1 insider sale, $153K — ROSINUS MIKE2026-02-13: 1 insider sale, $122K — ROSINUS MIKE2026-02-11: 1 insider sale, $32K — ROSINUS MIKE2026-02-10: 1 insider sale, $52K — ROSINUS MIKE2025-08: 16 open-market purchases, $3.5M2026-02: 11 open-market sales, $1.9M2026-03: 7 open-market sales, $3.6M2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $331K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $47K↑ buys↓ salesdirector ROSINUS MIKE — Sale on 2026-09-09, filed same dayofficer WASSON ARTHUR — Sale on 2026-08-14, filed same daydirector ROSINUS MIKE — Sale on 2026-03-16, filed 1 day after the tradedirector ROSINUS MIKE — Sale on 2026-03-13, filed 3 days after the tradedirector ROSINUS MIKE — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 6 days after the tradedirector ROSINUS MIKE — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed same daydirector ROSINUS MIKE — Sale on 2026-03-06, filed 3 days after the tradedirector ROSINUS MIKE — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector ROSINUS MIKE — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector ROSINUS MIKE — Sale on 2026-02-27, filed 3 days after the tradedirector ROSINUS MIKE — Sale on 2026-02-26, filed 1 day after the tradedirector ROSINUS MIKE — Sale on 2026-02-25, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ROSINUS MIKE — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ROSINUS MIKE — Sale on 2026-02-20, filed 3 days after the tradedirector ROSINUS MIKE — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector ROSINUS MIKE — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector ROSINUS MIKE — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed same daydirector ROSINUS MIKE — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 4 days after the tradedirector ROSINUS MIKE — Sale on 2026-02-11, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ROSINUS MIKE — Sale on 2026-02-10, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-09ROSINUS MIKEdirectorSale1,500 @ $31.45$47K−8.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open16,680Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-14WASSON ARTHURofficerSale10,000 @ $33.14$331K−48.9% of holding−0.8%not yet — horizon still open10,451Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-16ROSINUS MIKEdirectorSale56,882 @ $27.41$1.6M−99.9% of holding+2.8%+2.1%80Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-13ROSINUS MIKEdirectorSale7,953 @ $27.49$219K−12.3% of holding+2.4%−0.4%56,962Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-10ROSINUS MIKEdirectorSale19,318 @ $28.28$546K−22.9% of holding+6.3%−1.2%64,915Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade
2026-03-09ROSINUS MIKEdirectorSale15,847 @ $28.09$445K−15.8% of holding+5.4%−0.7%84,233Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-06ROSINUS MIKEdirectorSale9,659 @ $28.10$271K−8.8% of holding+4.1%−1.6%100,080Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-04ROSINUS MIKEdirectorSale16,175 @ $29.05$470K−12.8% of holding+3.3%−3.5%109,739Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-02ROSINUS MIKEdirectorSale2,499 @ $29.01$72K−1.9% of holding+3.4%−3.8%125,914Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-27ROSINUS MIKEdirectorSale1,000 @ $29.55$30K−0.8% of holding+4.4%−3.1%128,413Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-26ROSINUS MIKEdirectorSale3,434 @ $30.00$103K−2.6% of holding+1.2%−5.8%129,413Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-25ROSINUS MIKEdirectorSale19,411 @ $29.90$580K−12.7% of holding+0.3%−4.5%132,847Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23ROSINUS MIKEdirectorSale5,000 @ $30.16$151K−3.1% of holding−2.9%−4.1%157,258Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-20ROSINUS MIKEdirectorSale5,000 @ $30.16$151K−3.0% of holding−2.9%−4.0%162,258Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-19ROSINUS MIKEdirectorSale4,262 @ $29.57$126K−2.5% of holding−3.6%−3.1%167,258Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-18ROSINUS MIKEdirectorSale11,602 @ $30.22$351K−6.3% of holding−4.4%−4.5%171,520Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-17ROSINUS MIKEdirectorSale5,076 @ $30.17$153K−2.7% of holding−8.2%−4.2%183,122Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-13ROSINUS MIKEdirectorSale4,051 @ $30.07$122K−2.1% of holding−8.5%−5.1%188,198Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-11ROSINUS MIKEdirectorSale1,063 @ $30.45$32K−0.5% of holding−4.7%−4.0%192,249Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-10ROSINUS MIKEdirectorSale1,688 @ $30.73$52K−0.9% of holding−5.5%−4.6%193,312Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-08Patriot Financial Partners IV, L.P.tenPercentOwnerPurchase80,000 @ $23.00$1.8M+8.2% of holding+8.1%+22.6%1,053,918Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-07POLSTER BRYAN C.directorPurchase50,000 @ $23.00$1.1M+371.4% of holding+12.7%+27.3%63,464Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-07THOMA GINA N.officerPurchase5,000 @ $23.00$115K+18.8% of holding+12.7%+27.3%31,636Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-07MORDELL MARK DANIELdirectorPurchase4,000 @ $23.00$92K+1.8% of holding+12.7%+27.3%229,909Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-07VERISSIMO MARC JdirectorPurchase4,000 @ $23.00$92K+28.7% of holding+12.7%+27.3%17,944Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-07Oakes Patrick TimothyofficerPurchase2,000 @ $23.00$46K+6.1% of holding+12.7%+27.3%34,606Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-07FLYNN DIANE J.directorPurchase1,000 @ $23.00$23K+9.0% of holding+12.7%+27.3%12,145Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-07MORRIS LINDA RAEdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $23.00$23K+66.7% of holding+12.7%+27.3%2,500Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-07WASSON ARTHURofficerPurchase1,000 @ $23.00$23K+4.9% of holding+12.7%+27.3%21,476Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-07DEMARCO VICTOR FRANCESCO E.officerPurchase750 @ $23.00$17K+5.6% of holding+12.7%+27.3%14,101Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-07BENEDICT TAMI LAURAofficerPurchase750 @ $23.00$17K+3.4% of holding+12.7%+27.3%23,115Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-07BIORN KRISTOFER W.directorPurchase750 @ $23.00$17K+3.0% of holding+12.7%+27.3%26,033Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-07HENDRICKSON LISA B.directorPurchase500 @ $23.00$12K+33.3% of holding+12.7%+27.3%2,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-07Scott Robert HdirectorPurchase435 @ $23.00$10K+3.3% of holding+12.7%+27.3%13,699Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-07BUTNER GEOFFREY EVANofficerPurchase400 @ $23.00$9K+1.2% of holding+12.7%+27.3%33,178Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-07ROSINUS MIKEdirectorPurchase100 @ $23.00$2K+0.6% of holding+12.7%+27.3%16,680Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

52 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-01WASSON ARTHURofficerDisposition4,40820,451Form 4
2026-05-19ROSINUS MIKEdirectorAward / grant1,50018,180Form 4
2026-05-19POLSTER BRYAN C.directorAward / grant1,50064,964Form 4
2026-05-19BIORN KRISTOFER W.directorAward / grant1,5003,000Form 4
2026-05-19VERISSIMO MARC JdirectorAward / grant1,50019,444Form 4
2026-05-19Scott Robert HdirectorAward / grant1,50015,199Form 4
2026-05-19Jensen KeithdirectorAward / grant1,5001,500Form 4
2026-05-19FLYNN DIANE J.directorAward / grant1,50013,645Form 4
2026-05-19MORRIS LINDA RAEdirectorAward / grant1,5004,000Form 4
2026-05-19Deutsch James F.directorAward / grant1,5004,500Form 4
2026-05-19Deutsch James F.directorAward / grant1,5004,500Form 4
2026-02-24MORDELL MARK DANIELdirectorDisposition845236,387Form 4
2026-02-24Oakes Patrick TimothyofficerDisposition37438,688Form 4
2026-02-24THOMA GINA N.officerDisposition34035,447Form 4
2026-02-24DEMARCO VICTOR FRANCESCO E.officerDisposition15816,440Form 4
2026-02-24BENEDICT TAMI LAURAofficerDisposition13125,283Form 4
2026-02-23MORDELL MARK DANIELdirectorDisposition637237,232Form 4
2026-02-23Oakes Patrick TimothyofficerDisposition29539,062Form 4
2026-02-23THOMA GINA N.officerDisposition27035,787Form 4
2026-02-23DEMARCO VICTOR FRANCESCO E.officerDisposition12416,598Form 4
2026-02-23BENEDICT TAMI LAURAofficerDisposition10325,414Form 4
2026-02-23WASSON ARTHURofficerDisposition8424,859Form 4
2026-02-14MORDELL MARK DANIELdirectorDisposition639237,869Form 4
2026-02-14Oakes Patrick TimothyofficerDisposition29639,357Form 4
2026-02-14THOMA GINA N.officerDisposition27036,057Form 4
2026-02-14WASSON ARTHURofficerDisposition20324,943Form 4
2026-02-14BENEDICT TAMI LAURAofficerDisposition18625,517Form 4
2026-02-14DEMARCO VICTOR FRANCESCO E.officerDisposition14516,722Form 4
2026-02-14FOUSSIANES ELISABETHofficerDisposition957,975Form 4
2026-02-13THOMA GINA N.officerAward / grant2,48036,327Form 4
2026-02-13BENEDICT TAMI LAURAofficerAward / grant1,55025,703Form 4
2026-02-13FOUSSIANES ELISABETHofficerAward / grant1,8708,070Form 4
2026-02-13MORDELL MARK DANIELdirectorAward / grant5,725238,508Form 4
2026-02-13Oakes Patrick TimothyofficerAward / grant2,72039,653Form 4
2026-02-13WASSON ARTHURofficerAward / grant1,84525,146Form 4
2026-02-13DEMARCO VICTOR FRANCESCO E.officerAward / grant1,67516,867Form 4
2025-10-24BUTNER GEOFFREY EVANofficerAward / grant1,82534,347Form 4
2025-10-24DEMARCO VICTOR FRANCESCO E.officerAward / grant1,53015,192Form 4
2025-10-24MORDELL MARK DANIELdirectorAward / grant3,090232,783Form 4
2025-10-24Oakes Patrick TimothyofficerAward / grant2,15536,933Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.