Issued 2026-09-16 at $22.29 · now $22.29 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AVBC has typically landed between $20.80 and $25.13 — a range of −6.7% to +12.7% from the issuance price $22.29.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
262 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-08-01 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($22.29) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AVBC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $22.29 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $22.29 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $23.09 (+3.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $22.2–$23.97
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $20.8–$25.13
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 262 windows spanning 2025-08-01 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-04-28 | −10.4% | −10.4% | +0.0% |
| 2026-04-20 | −10.3% | −11.2% | +0.0% |
| 2026-04-17 | −10.2% | −10.5% | +0.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-01-02 | +18.0% | +0.0% | +18.0% |
| 2026-01-07 | +17.5% | +0.0% | +17.9% |
| 2025-11-18 | +16.3% | +0.0% | +16.3% |
262 overlapping windows · 2025-08-01 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
100%
+9.4%
n=1
Feb
100%
+2.1%
n=1
Mar
100%
+5.0%
n=1
Apr
100%
+5.6%
n=1
May
0%
−8.0%
n=1
Jun
100%
+10.1%
n=1
Jul
100%
+6.2%
n=1
Aug
0%
−0.7%
n=1
Sep
50%
−1.4%
n=2
Oct
0%
−0.5%
n=1
Nov
100%
+6.5%
n=1
Dec
100%
+6.2%
n=1
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Murphy Michael Dennis | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $22.12 | $111K | +270.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,850 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Nelson Jonathan Michael | officer | Purchase | 4,500 @ $22.19 | $100K | +30.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 19,045 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-26 | Grimaldo Joseph F | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $22.02 | $110K | +11.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 49,655 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Doane Thomas | officer | Purchase | 1,726 @ $22.31 | $39K | +9.8% of holding | +1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,422 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Grimaldo Joseph F | director | Purchase | 4,655 @ $21.44 | $100K | +11.6% of holding | +3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,655 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Saul Kennedy O | director | Purchase | 4,278 @ $21.65 | $93K | +87.3% of holding | +3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,178 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Saul Kennedy O | director | Purchase | 872 @ $21.67 | $19K | +9.5% of holding | +3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,050 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Saul Kennedy O | director | Purchase | 513 @ $21.62 | $11K | +12.3% of holding | +3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,676 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Saul Kennedy O | director | Purchase | 145 @ $21.63 | $3K | +3.1% of holding | +3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,821 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Saul Kennedy O | director | Purchase | 79 @ $21.64 | $2K | +1.6% of holding | +3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,900 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Saul Kennedy O | director | Purchase | 13 @ $21.61 | $281 | +0.3% of holding | +3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,163 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Nelson Jonathan Michael | officer | Purchase | 1,065 @ $18.90 | $20K | +7.9% of holding | +10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,545 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-29 | Cozzone Robert D | director | Purchase | 2,128 @ $18.80 | $40K | +3.3% of holding | +11.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 67,357 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Karmelek Nicolas | officer | Purchase | 19 @ $19.08 | $363 | +0.2% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,727 | Form 4 · filed 64 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Jensen Barry H | officer | Purchase | 500 @ $18.88 | $9K | +1.2% of holding | +3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | GILLES MICHAEL O | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $19.17 | $19K | +5.3% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,000 | Form 4 · filed 76 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | GILLES MICHAEL O | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $19.12 | $19K | +4.0% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,096 | Form 4 · filed 76 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | GILLES MICHAEL O | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $18.92 | $19K | +25.0% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,000 | Form 4 · filed 76 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | GILLES MICHAEL O | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $19.50 | $20K | +4.2% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,096 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Jensen Barry H | officer | Purchase | 500 @ $19.26 | $10K | +1.2% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | GILLES MICHAEL O | director | Purchase | 3,000 @ $19.50 | $59K | +18.8% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Cozzone Robert D | director | Purchase | 2,023 @ $19.77 | $40K | +3.2% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 65,229 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | GILLES MICHAEL O | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $19.50 | $19K | +33.3% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Jensen Barry H | officer | Purchase | 1,000 @ $20.19 | $20K | +2.5% of holding | −1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-29 | Jensen Barry H | officer | Purchase | 1,000 @ $20.30 | $20K | +2.6% of holding | −12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Doane Thomas | officer | Purchase | 2,040 @ $21.16 | $43K | +13.2% of holding | −16.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,495 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Murphy Michael Dennis | director | Purchase | 1,850 @ $20.94 | $39K | ownership Δ n/a | −16.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,850 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Karmelek Nicolas | officer | Purchase | 1,220 @ $20.76 | $25K | +18.8% of holding | −16.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,705 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-27 | BALL JAMES N | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $20.60 | $103K | +11.1% of holding | −14.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Murphy Bartholomew H JR | officer | Purchase | 1,500 @ $19.15 | $29K | +7.0% of holding | +3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Jensen Barry H | officer | Purchase | 1,000 @ $18.69 | $19K | +2.6% of holding | +5.9% | +1.1% | 39,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Girard Michael R | director | Purchase | 450 @ $18.80 | $8K | +85.7% of holding | +5.9% | +1.1% | 975 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Murphy Bartholomew H JR | officer | Purchase | 440 @ $18.62 | $8K | +4.4% of holding | +5.9% | +1.1% | 10,440 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Nelson Jonathan Michael | officer | Purchase | 2,579 @ $19.39 | $50K | +13.0% of holding | +6.0% | +1.5% | 22,378 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Murphy Bartholomew H JR | officer | Purchase | 1,500 @ $19.09 | $29K | +7.5% of holding | +6.0% | +1.5% | 21,500 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Karmelek Nicolas | officer | Purchase | 1,090 @ $18.59 | $20K | +20.2% of holding | +10.7% | +7.0% | 6,485 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Cozzone Robert D | director | Purchase | 1,064 @ $18.79 | $20K | +1.7% of holding | +10.7% | +7.0% | 63,206 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Karmelek Nicolas | officer | Purchase | 14 @ $18.92 | $265 | +0.2% of holding | +9.3% | +5.7% | 7,708 | Form 4 · filed 155 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Jensen Barry H | officer | Purchase | 1,000 @ $18.77 | $19K | +2.7% of holding | +9.4% | +7.5% | 38,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Jensen Barry H | officer | Purchase | 1,000 @ $18.65 | $19K | +2.8% of holding | +9.4% | +7.5% | 37,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Cozzone Robert D | director | Purchase | 2,582 @ $19.36 | $50K | +4.3% of holding | +5.0% | +4.0% | 62,142 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Jensen Barry H | officer | Purchase | 1,000 @ $18.95 | $19K | +2.9% of holding | +5.0% | +4.0% | 36,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Jensen Barry H | officer | Purchase | 2,500 @ $17.07 | $43K | +7.7% of holding | −4.2% | +3.2% | 35,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-01 | Murphy Michael Dennis | director | Purchase | 6,230 @ $16.00 | $100K | +623.0% of holding | +1.7% | +3.3% | 7,230 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | BALL JAMES N | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $16.13 | $81K | +12.5% of holding | +1.7% | +3.3% | 45,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-24 | Nelson Jonathan Michael | officer | Purchase | 3,245 @ $15.41 | $50K | +19.6% of holding | +7.5% | +7.3% | 19,799 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Cozzone Robert D | director | Purchase | 3,261 @ $15.33 | $50K | +5.8% of holding | +8.2% | +9.9% | 59,560 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Jensen Barry H | officer | Purchase | 2,092 @ $14.93 | $31K | +6.9% of holding | +13.8% | +16.7% | 32,500 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-18 | Girard Michael R | director | Purchase | 525 @ $14.96 | $8K | ownership Δ n/a | +13.8% | +16.7% | 525 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Jensen Barry H | officer | Purchase | 408 @ $14.92 | $6K | +1.4% of holding | +13.8% | +16.7% | 30,408 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-13 | Jensen Barry H | officer | Purchase | 5,000 @ $15.24 | $76K | +20.0% of holding | +11.1% | +15.0% | 30,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-10 | Cozzone Robert D | director | Purchase | 3,240 @ $15.43 | $50K | +6.1% of holding | +10.8% | +17.5% | 56,299 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-07 | Murphy Michael Dennis | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $15.11 | $38K | +5.4% of holding | +6.8% | +15.1% | 49,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-06 | Murphy Michael Dennis | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $15.10 | $15K | ownership Δ n/a | +7.6% | +16.8% | 1,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | Murphy Michael Dennis | director | Purchase | 6,500 @ $15.13 | $98K | +16.3% of holding | +9.7% | +25.6% | 46,500 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | Cozzone Robert D | director | Purchase | 3,277 @ $15.26 | $50K | +6.6% of holding | +9.7% | +25.6% | 53,059 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Cozzone Robert D | director | Purchase | 3,310 @ $15.10 | $50K | +7.1% of holding | +7.0% | +25.1% | 49,782 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | Jensen Barry H | officer | Purchase | 2,207 @ $14.99 | $33K | +9.7% of holding | +8.0% | +31.8% | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | Jensen Barry H | officer | Purchase | 293 @ $14.78 | $4K | +1.3% of holding | +8.0% | +31.8% | 22,793 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Cozzone Robert D | director | Purchase | 3,325 @ $15.03 | $50K | +7.7% of holding | +11.2% | +31.8% | 46,472 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.