AVBAvalonBay Communities, Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Residentialas of 2026-09-03
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $68.14 · now $68.14 (2026-08-24, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AVB has typically landed between $61.69 and $74.21 — a range of −9.5% to +8.9% from the issuance price $68.14.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,669 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-07-24 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($68.14) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AVB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $68.14 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$61.69worst · -9.5%$74.21best · +8.9%
  • now $68.14 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $68.3 (+0.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $65.74–$70.87
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $61.69–$74.21
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,669 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-08-24. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2026-07-21−66.2%−66.2%+0.9%
2026-07-17−65.8%−65.8%+0.0%
2026-07-22−65.8%−66.2%+1.1%
3 best
2008-11-20+44.4%+0.0%+59.2%
2008-11-19+41.0%−6.5%+48.9%
2009-07-09+39.2%+0.0%+39.2%

4,669 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-24 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$26.9B
market cap
$7.26
EPS (TTM)
26.1
P/E (TTM)
2026-11-04
next earnings
Revenue$3.0B
'20'25
Net income$1.1B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.4B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr34.6%
'20'25
ROE · by yr9.1%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.80
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 29 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $68.14$42.96$408.10
  • DCF (intrinsic)$382.92
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 32.9× · n=29$238.66
  • Analyst target · range $188.00–$210.00$199.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-08-24$68.14

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−0.2%
n=18
Feb
42%
−1.1%
n=19
Mar
74%
+2.4%
n=19
Apr
74%
+4.1%
n=19
May
58%
+0.3%
n=19
Jun
63%
+0.1%
n=19
Jul
74%
+3.4%
n=19
Aug
58%
−2.9%
n=19
Sep
33%
−1.4%
n=18
Oct
39%
−1.6%
n=18
Nov
56%
+1.4%
n=18
Dec
67%
+2.0%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-082025-07$197$642025-12-02: 1 insider sale, $27K — Willson Sean Thomas2025-08-07: 1 insider sale, $28K — Willson Sean Thomas2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $28K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $27K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Willson Sean Thomas — Sale on 2025-12-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Willson Sean Thomas — Sale on 2025-08-07, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-12-02Willson Sean ThomasofficerSale150 @ $180.26$27K−4.0% of holding+0.1%−5.1%3,579Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-07Willson Sean ThomasofficerSale150 @ $188.32$28K−3.9% of holding+0.7%−15.8%3,711Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-16O'Shea Kevin P.directorSale4,384 @ $207.27$909K−15.2% of holding−6.1%−26.3%24,398Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-16O'Shea Kevin P.directorSale1,616 @ $208.36$337K−6.6% of holding−6.1%−26.3%22,782Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-13SCHULMAN EDWARD MofficerSale4,033 @ $205.97$831K−18.6% of holding−6.1%−27.5%17,617Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-13SCHULMAN EDWARD MofficerSale1,912 @ $205.03$392K−8.1% of holding−6.1%−27.5%21,650Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2021-08-05Shea Keri AofficerSale300 @ $227.83$68K−39.3% of holding−1.0%+8.9%463Form 4 · filed 1236 days after the trade
2019-05-06Shea Keri AofficerSale354 @ $201.03$71K−61.5% of holding+7.0%+4.4%222Form 4 · filed 2058 days after the trade
2019-05-06Shea Keri AofficerSale40 @ $201.20$8K−18.0% of holding+7.0%+4.4%182Form 4 · filed 2058 days after the trade
2016-12-14Shea Keri AofficerSale38 @ $170.15$6K−15.8% of holding+3.7%+8.1%202Form 4 · filed 2931 days after the trade
2016-09-12Shea Keri AofficerSale40 @ $170.33$7K−14.3% of holding−1.7%−5.6%240Form 4 · filed 3024 days after the trade
2016-05-10Shea Keri AofficerSale185 @ $191.25$35K−39.8% of holding−12.6%−12.6%280Form 4 · filed 3149 days after the trade
2016-05-04Shea Keri AofficerSale25 @ $184.43$5K−5.1% of holding−8.9%−11.2%465Form 4 · filed 3155 days after the trade
2015-08-03Shea Keri AofficerSale28 @ $173.21$5K−7.4% of holding+1.6%+6.5%349Form 4 · filed 3430 days after the trade
2014-12-11Shea Keri AofficerSale33 @ $163.76$5K−20.4% of holding+7.5%−3.0%129Form 4 · filed 3665 days after the trade
2014-05-22Shea Keri AofficerSale36 @ $139.70$5K−18.2% of holding−2.1%+5.1%162Form 4 · filed 3868 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

236 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-17Willson Sean ThomasofficerAward / grant1,4305,903Form 4
2026-08-17Birenbaum Matthew H.officerAward / grant27,735113,021Form 4
2026-08-17Birenbaum Matthew H.officerDisposition113,0210Form 4
2026-08-17Willson Sean ThomasofficerDisposition5,9030Form 4
2026-08-17Thomas Pamela RogersofficerAward / grant13,56123,879Form 4
2026-08-17Thomas Pamela RogersofficerDisposition23,8790Form 4
2026-08-17O'Shea Kevin P.directorAward / grant24,46757,693Form 4
2026-08-17O'Shea Kevin P.directorDisposition57,6930Form 4
2026-08-17Walsh Alaine SusanofficerAward / grant3,59013,019Form 4
2026-08-17Walsh Alaine SusanofficerDisposition13,0190Form 4
2026-08-17Schall BenjamindirectorDisposition178,8200Form 4
2026-08-17SCHULMAN EDWARD MofficerAward / grant12,77036,178Form 4
2026-08-17SCHULMAN EDWARD MofficerDisposition36,1780Form 4
2026-08-17Schall BenjamindirectorAward / grant78,257178,820Form 4
2026-08-17Breslin Sean J.officerAward / grant27,735106,920Form 4
2026-08-17Breslin Sean J.officerDisposition106,9200Form 4
2026-08-17Schall BenjamindirectorDisposition10,0730Form 4
2026-08-17Schall BenjamindirectorDisposition8,3040Form 4
2026-08-17Walsh Alaine SusanofficerDisposition2,4440Form 4
2026-08-17SCHULMAN EDWARD MofficerDisposition6,9830Form 4
2026-08-17Breslin Sean J.officerDisposition17,4580Form 4
2026-08-17Birenbaum Matthew H.officerDisposition17,4580Form 4
2026-08-17O'Shea Kevin P.directorDisposition13,9660Form 4
2026-08-17Aeppel GlyndirectorDisposition15,6590Form 4
2026-08-17Birenbaum Matthew H.officerDisposition17,4580Form 4
2026-08-17Breslin Sean J.officerDisposition17,4580Form 4
2026-08-17Brown Terry S.directorDisposition20,8560Form 4
2026-08-17Flynn Conor CdirectorDisposition2,0220Form 4
2026-08-17HAVNER RONALD L JRdirectorDisposition21,1500Form 4
2026-08-17Hills Stephen P.directorDisposition10,2750Form 4
2026-08-17Howard Christopher B.directorDisposition7,5960Form 4
2026-08-17Lieb Richard JdirectorDisposition9,9290Form 4
2026-08-17Lynch NnennadirectorDisposition7,0520Form 4
2026-08-17MUELLER CHARLES E JRdirectorDisposition8,6240Form 4
2026-08-17NAUGHTON TIMOTHY JdirectorDisposition111,5940Form 4
2026-08-17NAUGHTON TIMOTHY JdirectorDisposition14,0240Form 4
2026-08-17NAUGHTON TIMOTHY JdirectorDisposition69,8320Form 4
2026-08-17O'Shea Kevin P.directorDisposition13,9660Form 4
2026-08-17SCHULMAN EDWARD MofficerDisposition6,9830Form 4
2026-08-17Schall BenjamindirectorDisposition21,7720Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-03 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-12-082025-11-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-12-082025-11-03$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-31$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-11-062025-10-07$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-09-122025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-26$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.