AVAV · TickerCove

AVAVAeroVironment, Inc.Industrials · Aerospace & Defenseas of 2026-09-17

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-17 at $163.38 · now $163.38 (2026-09-17, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-17 close, AVAV has typically landed between $126.56 and $217.26 — a range of −22.5% to +33.0% from the issuance price $163.38.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,924 overlapping 1 month windows · 2007-01-23 – 2026-08-18 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,377 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-17 issuance close ($163.38) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-16, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$163.38 · 10% of range

$136.68 low$409.83 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-17 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,377 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.1%

typical move · IQR 21.6%

−22.5%worst (p90)+33.0%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where AVAV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-17 close of $163.38 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $163.38 (+0.0%)
typical $165.18 (+1.1%)
middle 50% $147.55–$182.8
90% range $126.56–$217.26

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,924 windows spanning 2007-01-23 to 2026-09-17. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2009-02-13	−51.1%	−51.2%	+0.0%
2009-02-12	−50.1%	−50.1%	+2.3%
2009-02-17	−50.0%	−50.0%	+0.8%
3 best
2025-09-09	+76.4%	+0.0%	+76.4%
2022-02-23	+74.7%	+0.0%	+74.7%
2025-09-05	+73.3%	+0.0%	+73.3%

4,924 overlapping windows · 2007-01-23 – 2026-09-17 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

53%

+2.9%

n=19

Feb

45%

−3.4%

n=20

Mar

55%

+1.6%

n=20

Apr

60%

+1.7%

n=20

May

60%

+5.1%

n=20

Jun

55%

+4.9%

n=20

Jul

35%

−1.1%

n=20

Aug

50%

+1.4%

n=20

Sep

40%

+2.1%

n=20

Oct

74%

+6.3%

n=19

Nov

47%

−1.0%

n=19

Dec

53%

−1.0%

n=19

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-15	PAGE STEPHEN F	director	Sale	250 @ $152.27	$38K	−0.5% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	48,253	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-15	Shackley Brian Charles	officer	Sale	100 @ $152.27	$15K	−1.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	7,788	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	PAGE STEPHEN F	director	Sale	250 @ $191.98	$48K	−0.5% of holding	−11.2%	not yet — horizon still open	48,503	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-14	Shackley Brian Charles	officer	Sale	205 @ $201.86	$41K	−2.5% of holding	−16.1%	not yet — horizon still open	7,888	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-15	Shackley Brian Charles	officer	Sale	300 @ $143.00	$43K	−3.6% of holding	+31.1%	not yet — horizon still open	8,093	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-15	PAGE STEPHEN F	director	Sale	248 @ $143.00	$35K	−0.5% of holding	+31.1%	not yet — horizon still open	48,753	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-15	PAGE STEPHEN F	director	Sale	250 @ $174.41	$44K	−0.5% of holding	−12.9%	not yet — horizon still open	49,001	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-15	PAGE STEPHEN F	director	Sale	250 @ $162.31	$41K	−0.5% of holding	+4.0%	not yet — horizon still open	49,251	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-04-15	PAGE STEPHEN F	director	Sale	250 @ $197.29	$49K	−0.5% of holding	−23.6%	not yet — horizon still open	49,501	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-03-16	PAGE STEPHEN F	director	Sale	250 @ $212.52	$53K	−0.5% of holding	−11.3%	−39.7%	49,751	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-16	Shackley Brian Charles	officer	Sale	200 @ $212.52	$43K	−3.3% of holding	−11.3%	−39.7%	5,794	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-10	McDonnell Kevin Patrick	officer	Sale	396 @ $224.55	$89K	−2.4% of holding	−20.5%	−49.6%	16,026	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-02	PAGE STEPHEN F	director	Sale	250 @ $300.00	$75K	−0.5% of holding	−7.1%	−41.1%	50,001	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-19	PAGE STEPHEN F	director	Sale	250 @ $275.00	$69K	−0.5% of holding	−24.8%	−55.3%	50,251	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-17	PAGE STEPHEN F	director	Sale	500 @ $254.95	$127K	−1.0% of holding	−14.8%	−46.8%	50,501	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-10	McDonnell Kevin Patrick	officer	Sale	879 @ $267.60	$235K	−5.1% of holding	−15.8%	−38.6%	16,422	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-15	PAGE STEPHEN F	director	Sale	1,000 @ $377.62	$378K	−1.9% of holding	−29.2%	−70.1%	51,001	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-12	McDonnell Kevin Patrick	officer	Sale	999 @ $367.60	$367K	−5.5% of holding	−33.9%	−71.1%	17,301	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-30	Shackley Brian Charles	officer	Sale	200 @ $250.92	$50K	−3.2% of holding	+13.4%	−30.7%	5,994	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-10	McDonnell Kevin Patrick	officer	Sale	511 @ $249.37	$127K	−2.7% of holding	+49.7%	−38.9%	18,300	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-10	McDonnell Kevin Patrick	officer	Sale	513 @ $331.46	$170K	−2.7% of holding	−27.4%	−61.3%	18,811	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-10	McDonnell Kevin Patrick	officer	Sale	998 @ $399.74	$399K	−4.9% of holding	−19.2%	−57.4%	19,324	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-06	Stevenson Trace E	officer	Sale	1,717 @ $381.00	$654K	−25.9% of holding	−7.4%	−53.5%	4,907	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-16	Nawabi Wahid	director	Sale	17,300 @ $263.05	$4.6M	−12.4% of holding	−10.5%	+30.7%	122,233	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-24	Nawabi Wahid	director	Sale	29,366 @ $128.20	$3.8M	−20.3% of holding	+20.3%	+115.8%	115,174	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-02	McDonnell Kevin Patrick	officer	Sale	396 @ $198.73	$79K	−2.3% of holding	−20.2%	−7.0%	16,472	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

105 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-14	Ruppert Michael	director	Award / grant	957	957	Form 4
2026-07-13	MULLER EDWARD R	director	Other acquisition	996	49,691	Form 4
2026-07-13	MULLER EDWARD R	director	Other acquisition	996	2,148	Form 4
2026-07-10	Nawabi Wahid	director	Withheld for tax	5,246	162,200	Form 4
2026-07-10	Brown Melissa Ann	officer	Withheld for tax	813	26,085	Form 4
2026-07-10	Stevenson Trace E	officer	Withheld for tax	545	9,823	Form 4
2026-07-10	Shackley Brian Charles	officer	Withheld for tax	243	8,483	Form 4
2026-07-10	Woodward Sean Thomas	officer	Withheld for tax	236	5,836	Form 4
2026-07-10	McDaniel Clum Mary Elizabeth	officer	Withheld for tax	58	16,571	Form 4
2026-07-02	PAGE STEPHEN F	director	Award / grant	130	2,882	Form 4
2026-07-02	Nawabi Wahid	director	Award / grant	15,709	167,349	Form 4
2026-07-02	Burbage Charles Thomas	director	Award / grant	1,047	51,634	Form 4
2026-07-02	Burbage Charles Thomas	director	Award / grant	130	51,764	Form 4
2026-07-02	Brown Melissa Ann	officer	Award / grant	1,744	26,898	Form 4
2026-07-02	Shackley Brian Charles	officer	Award / grant	698	8,726	Form 4
2026-07-02	Smith Robert Fendlay	officer	Award / grant	2,016	3,816	Form 4
2026-07-02	Lynn William III	director	Award / grant	892	892	Form 4
2026-07-02	MULLER EDWARD R	director	Award / grant	1,047	2,752	Form 4
2026-07-02	Lewis Cindy Kay	director	Award / grant	261	7,724	Form 4
2026-07-02	Davidson Phillip S	director	Award / grant	1,047	4,228	Form 4
2026-07-02	Davidson Phillip S	director	Award / grant	130	4,358	Form 4
2026-07-02	Long Mary Beth	director	Award / grant	1,047	4,090	Form 4
2026-07-02	Long Mary Beth	director	Award / grant	130	4,220	Form 4
2026-07-02	Stevenson Trace E	officer	Award / grant	2,406	10,368	Form 4
2026-07-02	Votel Joseph L.	director	Award / grant	1,047	3,928	Form 4
2026-07-02	Votel Joseph L.	director	Award / grant	261	4,189	Form 4
2026-07-02	McDaniel Clum Mary Elizabeth	officer	Award / grant	1,210	16,629	Form 4
2026-07-02	Woodward Sean Thomas	officer	Award / grant	2,077	6,072	Form 4
2026-07-02	Lewis Cindy Kay	director	Award / grant	1,047	7,463	Form 4
2026-07-02	MULLER EDWARD R	director	Award / grant	392	3,144	Form 4
2026-07-02	PAGE STEPHEN F	director	Award / grant	1,047	2,752	Form 4
2026-06-30	Woodward Sean Thomas	officer	Award / grant	97	3,995	Form 4
2026-06-30	Nawabi Wahid	director	Award / grant	97	151,737	Form 4
2026-06-29	Nawabi Wahid	director	Withheld for tax	28,265	151,640	Form 4
2026-06-29	Brown Melissa Ann	officer	Withheld for tax	3,590	25,154	Form 4
2026-06-29	Stevenson Trace E	officer	Withheld for tax	1,710	7,962	Form 4
2026-06-29	Shackley Brian Charles	officer	Withheld for tax	855	8,028	Form 4
2026-06-29	Woodward Sean Thomas	officer	Withheld for tax	855	3,898	Form 4
2026-06-29	Stevenson Trace E	officer	Option exercise	1,906	0	Form 4
2026-06-29	Woodward Sean Thomas	officer	Option exercise	2,382	4,753	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-183% elapsed2026-10-16

Logged immutably 2026-09-18; scored automatically on 2026-10-16 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i