Issued 2026-09-16 at $14.26 · now $14.26 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AVAH has typically landed between $10.84 and $19.76 — a range of −24.0% to +38.6% from the issuance price $14.26.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,332 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-04-28 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($14.26) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AVAH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $14.26 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $14.26 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $14.04 (-1.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $12.16–$15.93
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $10.84–$19.76
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,332 windows spanning 2021-04-28 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-10-27 | −51.9% | −51.9% | +0.0% |
| 2022-10-25 | −51.3% | −51.3% | +3.3% |
| 2022-10-31 | −51.2% | −51.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-10-27 | +128.3% | +0.0% | +128.3% |
| 2025-08-01 | +120.3% | +0.0% | +120.3% |
| 2025-08-04 | +118.3% | −1.0% | +118.3% |
1,332 overlapping windows · 2021-04-28 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
60%
+4.0%
n=5
Feb
20%
−4.2%
n=5
Mar
40%
−6.0%
n=5
Apr
40%
−3.8%
n=5
May
67%
+7.0%
n=6
Jun
67%
+7.8%
n=6
Jul
50%
+3.0%
n=6
Aug
50%
+23.2%
n=6
Sep
33%
−6.8%
n=6
Oct
40%
−0.7%
n=5
Nov
60%
+11.6%
n=5
Dec
40%
−1.2%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | VIGANO PAUL R | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,250,000 @ $11.50 | $25.9M | −15.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 12,315,892 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | WILLIAMS ROBERT M JR | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,250,000 @ $11.50 | $25.9M | −15.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 12,315,892 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | J.H. Whitney Equity Partners VII, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,250,000 @ $11.50 | $25.9M | −15.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 12,315,892 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | J.H. Whitney Equity Partners VII, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 10,112,125 @ $11.50 | $116.3M | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | WILLIAMS ROBERT M JR | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 10,112,125 @ $11.50 | $116.3M | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | VIGANO PAUL R | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 10,112,125 @ $11.50 | $116.3M | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | WILLIAMS ROBERT M JR | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,813,795 @ $11.50 | $20.9M | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | VIGANO PAUL R | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,813,795 @ $11.50 | $20.9M | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | J.H. Whitney Equity Partners VII, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,426,034 @ $11.50 | $16.4M | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | WILLIAMS ROBERT M JR | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,426,034 @ $11.50 | $16.4M | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | VIGANO PAUL R | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,426,034 @ $11.50 | $16.4M | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | VIGANO PAUL R | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 957,918 @ $11.50 | $11.0M | −6.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 14,565,892 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | J.H. Whitney Equity Partners VII, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 957,918 @ $11.50 | $11.0M | −6.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 14,565,892 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | WILLIAMS ROBERT M JR | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 957,918 @ $11.50 | $11.0M | −6.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 14,565,892 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | WILLIAMS ROBERT M JR | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 190,130 @ $11.50 | $2.2M | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | VIGANO PAUL R | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 190,130 @ $11.50 | $2.2M | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Windley Rodney D | director | Sale | 180,000 @ $11.50 | $2.1M | −8.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,078,017 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Shaner Jeff | director | Sale | 90,000 @ $11.50 | $1.0M | −3.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,561,972 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Reisz Edwin C. | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $11.50 | $575K | −3.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,397,897 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | VIGANO PAUL R | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,419,035 @ $8.01 | $19.4M | −19.3% of holding | +13.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,112,123 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | J.H. Whitney Equity Partners VII, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,419,035 @ $8.01 | $19.4M | −19.3% of holding | +13.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,112,123 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | WILLIAMS ROBERT M JR | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,419,035 @ $8.01 | $19.4M | −19.3% of holding | +13.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,112,123 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | VIGANO PAUL R | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 525,844 @ $8.01 | $4.2M | −22.5% of holding | +13.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,813,795 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | WILLIAMS ROBERT M JR | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 525,844 @ $8.01 | $4.2M | −22.5% of holding | +13.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,813,795 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | WILLIAMS ROBERT M JR | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 55,121 @ $8.01 | $442K | −22.5% of holding | +13.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 190,130 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | VIGANO PAUL R | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 55,121 @ $8.01 | $442K | −22.5% of holding | +13.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 190,130 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | VIGANO PAUL R | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 919,389 @ $8.00 | $7.4M | −6.8% of holding | +10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,531,158 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | J.H. Whitney Equity Partners VII, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 919,389 @ $8.00 | $7.4M | −6.8% of holding | +10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,531,158 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | WILLIAMS ROBERT M JR | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 919,389 @ $8.00 | $7.4M | −6.8% of holding | +10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,531,158 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | VIGANO PAUL R | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 72,963 @ $8.00 | $584K | −3.0% of holding | +10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,339,639 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | WILLIAMS ROBERT M JR | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 72,963 @ $8.00 | $584K | −3.0% of holding | +10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,339,639 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | VIGANO PAUL R | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 7,648 @ $8.00 | $61K | −3.0% of holding | +10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 245,251 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | WILLIAMS ROBERT M JR | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 7,648 @ $8.00 | $61K | −3.0% of holding | +10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 245,251 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | WILLIAMS ROBERT M JR | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 5,842,240 @ $6.24 | $36.5M | −30.3% of holding | +40.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,450,547 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | VIGANO PAUL R | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 5,842,240 @ $6.24 | $36.5M | −30.3% of holding | +40.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,450,547 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | J.H. Whitney Equity Partners VII, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 5,842,240 @ $6.24 | $36.5M | −30.3% of holding | +40.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,450,547 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | VIGANO PAUL R | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,047,913 @ $6.24 | $6.5M | −30.3% of holding | +40.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,412,602 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | WILLIAMS ROBERT M JR | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,047,913 @ $6.24 | $6.5M | −30.3% of holding | +40.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,412,602 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | VIGANO PAUL R | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 109,847 @ $6.24 | $685K | −30.3% of holding | +40.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 252,899 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | WILLIAMS ROBERT M JR | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 109,847 @ $6.24 | $685K | −30.3% of holding | +40.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 252,899 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Cunningham Patrick A. | officer | Sale | 125,000 @ $7.59 | $949K | −37.0% of holding | +2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 212,755 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Shaner Jeff | director | Sale | 173,225 @ $7.21 | $1.2M | −6.1% of holding | −7.1% | +62.8% | 2,650,892 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-19 | Reisz Edwin C. | officer | Sale | 60,769 @ $7.21 | $438K | −4.0% of holding | −7.1% | +62.8% | 1,447,057 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-19 | Cunningham Patrick A. | officer | Sale | 18,436 @ $7.21 | $133K | −5.2% of holding | −7.1% | +62.8% | 337,755 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-19 | Buckhalter Matthew | officer | Sale | 13,512 @ $7.21 | $97K | −2.5% of holding | −7.1% | +62.8% | 529,243 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-19 | Stewart Deborah | officer | Sale | 11,181 @ $7.21 | $81K | −3.6% of holding | −7.1% | +62.8% | 301,807 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-18 | Shaner Jeff | director | Sale | 168,800 @ $7.38 | $1.2M | −5.6% of holding | −10.5% | +65.2% | 2,824,117 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Reisz Edwin C. | officer | Sale | 59,217 @ $7.38 | $437K | −3.8% of holding | −10.5% | +65.2% | 1,507,826 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Cunningham Patrick A. | officer | Sale | 17,965 @ $7.38 | $133K | −4.8% of holding | −10.5% | +65.2% | 356,191 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Buckhalter Matthew | officer | Sale | 13,167 @ $7.38 | $97K | −2.4% of holding | −10.5% | +65.2% | 542,755 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Stewart Deborah | officer | Sale | 10,896 @ $7.38 | $80K | −3.4% of holding | −10.5% | +65.2% | 312,988 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Shaner Jeff | director | Sale | 119,884 @ $7.65 | $917K | −3.9% of holding | −6.4% | +52.9% | 2,992,917 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Reisz Edwin C. | officer | Sale | 42,057 @ $7.65 | $322K | −2.6% of holding | −6.4% | +52.9% | 1,567,043 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Cunningham Patrick A. | officer | Sale | 12,759 @ $7.65 | $98K | −3.3% of holding | −6.4% | +52.9% | 374,156 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Buckhalter Matthew | officer | Sale | 9,351 @ $7.65 | $71K | −1.7% of holding | −6.4% | +52.9% | 555,922 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Stewart Deborah | officer | Sale | 7,738 @ $7.65 | $59K | −2.3% of holding | −6.4% | +52.9% | 323,884 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Shaner Jeff | director | Sale | 29,357 @ $7.85 | $230K | −1.2% of holding | +3.8% | +8.8% | 2,394,179 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-02 | Buckhalter Matthew | officer | Sale | 18,340 @ $7.85 | $144K | −4.0% of holding | +3.8% | +8.8% | 436,980 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-02 | Reisz Edwin C. | officer | Sale | 17,613 @ $7.85 | $138K | −1.3% of holding | +3.8% | +8.8% | 1,321,114 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-02 | Cunningham Patrick A. | officer | Sale | 12,445 @ $7.85 | $98K | −4.1% of holding | +3.8% | +8.8% | 293,354 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
50 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-17 | Windley Rodney D | director | Withheld for tax | 60,217 | 2,258,017 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Stewart Deborah | officer | Award / grant | 28,374 | 331,622 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Buckhalter Matthew | officer | Award / grant | 15,213 | 452,193 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Buckhalter Matthew | officer | Award / grant | 46,875 | 499,068 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Buckhalter Matthew | officer | Award / grant | 66,205 | 565,273 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | RODGERS STEVEN E | director | Award / grant | 18,916 | 312,414 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Reisz Edwin C. | officer | Award / grant | 50,304 | 1,371,947 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Reisz Edwin C. | officer | Award / grant | 187,500 | 1,559,447 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Reisz Edwin C. | officer | Award / grant | 49,653 | 1,609,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Cunningham Patrick A. | officer | Award / grant | 14,187 | 386,915 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Cunningham Patrick A. | officer | Award / grant | 19,016 | 314,134 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Cunningham Patrick A. | officer | Award / grant | 58,594 | 372,728 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | GANZI VICTOR F | director | Award / grant | 18,916 | 502,522 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Perchik Jerry | officer | Award / grant | 49,653 | 440,530 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Windley Rodney D | director | Award / grant | 268,509 | 2,296,796 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Windley Rodney D | director | Award / grant | 21,438 | 2,318,234 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Stewart Deborah | officer | Award / grant | 39,062 | 303,248 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Stewart Deborah | officer | Award / grant | 11,663 | 264,186 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Shaner Jeff | director | Award / grant | 136,663 | 2,534,235 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Shaner Jeff | director | Award / grant | 421,094 | 2,955,329 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Shaner Jeff | director | Award / grant | 157,472 | 3,112,801 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Schwartz Erica | director | Award / grant | 18,916 | 276,414 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | LAYTON BRENT D | director | Award / grant | 18,916 | 54,258 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-10 | VIGANO PAUL R | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 17,109 | 1,426,034 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-10 | WILLIAMS ROBERT M JR | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 17,109 | 1,426,034 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-10 | WILLIAMS ROBERT M JR | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 64,773 | 15,523,809 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-10 | J.H. Whitney Equity Partners VII, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 64,773 | 15,523,809 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-10 | J.H. Whitney Equity Partners VII, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 17,109 | 1,426,034 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-10 | VIGANO PAUL R | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 64,773 | 15,523,809 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Shaner Jeff | director | Withheld for tax | 63,618 | 2,477,639 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Buckhalter Matthew | officer | Withheld for tax | 51,298 | 501,245 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Reisz Edwin C. | officer | Withheld for tax | 49,783 | 1,285,899 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Stewart Deborah | officer | Withheld for tax | 47,029 | 300,853 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Cunningham Patrick A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 45,759 | 346,369 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Buckhalter Matthew | officer | Award / grant | 139,665 | 552,543 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Shaner Jeff | director | Award / grant | 139,665 | 2,541,257 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Perchik Jerry | officer | Award / grant | 139,665 | 388,645 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Reisz Edwin C. | officer | Award / grant | 139,665 | 1,335,682 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Stewart Deborah | officer | Award / grant | 139,665 | 347,882 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Cunningham Patrick A. | officer | Award / grant | 139,665 | 392,128 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.