AVAAvista CorporationUtilities · Diversified Utilitiesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $36.74 · now $36.74 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AVA has typically landed between $33.57 and $40.02 — a range of −8.6% to +8.9% from the issuance price $36.74.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($36.74) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AVA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $36.74 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$33.57worst · -8.6%$40.02best · +8.9%
  • now $36.74 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $36.91 (+0.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $35.54–$38.28
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $33.57–$40.02
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−35.5%−35.5%+2.7%
2009-02-05−31.8%−32.6%+0.8%
2009-02-03−31.0%−31.0%+3.1%
3 best
2020-03-23+30.8%+0.0%+37.3%
2017-07-06+26.7%+0.0%+27.6%
2017-07-10+25.9%+0.0%+26.7%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
40%
−0.4%
n=20
Feb
45%
−1.2%
n=20
Mar
80%
+3.0%
n=20
Apr
70%
+1.6%
n=20
May
45%
−0.1%
n=20
Jun
55%
+0.5%
n=20
Jul
55%
+2.3%
n=20
Aug
35%
−1.7%
n=20
Sep
55%
−0.8%
n=20
Oct
60%
+2.1%
n=20
Nov
50%
+1.5%
n=20
Dec
70%
+1.5%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$42$342026-09-02: 2 insider sales, $174K — DiLuciano Joshua D …2026-05-07: 1 insider sale, $65K — Manuel Wayne O2026-03-13: 1 insider sale, $22K — Alexander Alexis G.2026-02-26: 1 insider sale, $71K — Cox Bryan Alden2025-12-16: 1 insider sale, $69K — Manuel Wayne O2025-12-12: 1 insider sale, $286K — Widmann Janet D.2025-12-02: 1 insider sale, $5K — Alexander Alexis G.2025-09-16: 1 insider purchase, $131K — Cox Bryan Alden2025-09-05: 1 insider sale, $50K — MEYER DAVID J2025-09: 1 open-market purchase, $131K2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $50K2025-12: 3 open-market sales, $360K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $71K2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $22K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $65K2026-09: 2 open-market sales, $174K↑ buys↓ salesofficer DiLuciano Joshua D — Sale on 2026-09-02, filed same dayofficer DiLuciano Joshua D — Sale on 2026-09-02, filed same dayofficer Manuel Wayne O — Sale on 2026-05-07, filed same dayofficer Alexander Alexis G. — Sale on 2026-03-13, filed same dayofficer Cox Bryan Alden — Sale on 2026-02-26, filed same dayofficer Manuel Wayne O — Sale on 2025-12-16, filed same daydirector Widmann Janet D. — Sale on 2025-12-12, filed same dayofficer Alexander Alexis G. — Sale on 2025-12-02, filed same dayofficer Cox Bryan Alden — Purchase on 2025-09-16, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer MEYER DAVID J — Sale on 2025-09-05, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-02DiLuciano Joshua DofficerSale3,857 @ $37.24$144K−31.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open8,334Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-02DiLuciano Joshua DofficerSale818 @ $37.25$30K−6.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open12,191Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-07Manuel Wayne OofficerSale1,593 @ $40.98$65K−13.2% of holding+2.7%not yet — horizon still open10,521Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-13Alexander Alexis G.officerSale555 @ $39.80$22K−12.4% of holding−0.6%−22.5%3,930Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-26Cox Bryan AldenofficerSale1,768 @ $40.18$71K−17.4% of holding+8.2%−16.4%8,401Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-16Manuel Wayne OofficerSale1,785 @ $38.74$69K−15.3% of holding+2.3%−5.1%9,883Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-12Widmann Janet D.directorSale7,400 @ $38.63$286K−27.8% of holding+1.1%−1.8%19,246Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-02Alexander Alexis G.officerSale127 @ $40.87$5K−3.8% of holding−2.4%−3.7%3,252Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-16Cox Bryan AldenofficerPurchase3,671 @ $35.55$131K+58.1% of holding+5.9%+13.5%9,989Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-05MEYER DAVID JofficerSale1,367 @ $36.72$50K−14.0% of holding−3.2%+4.8%8,394Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-12Kinney Scott JofficerSale1,024 @ $37.82$39K−8.2% of holding−4.3%−9.8%11,515Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-13Cox Bryan AldenofficerSale3,322 @ $39.11$130K−27.4% of holding+6.6%−24.2%8,812Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-10Cox Bryan AldenofficerSale1,605 @ $39.89$64K−11.7% of holding+10.9%−23.1%12,134Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-06Kinney Scott JofficerSale1,632 @ $38.72$63K−11.0% of holding+15.7%−16.8%13,205Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-06Kinney Scott JofficerSale666 @ $38.83$26K−5.0% of holding+15.7%−16.8%12,539Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-04Krasselt Ryan LofficerSale4,000 @ $40.01$160K−12.1% of holding+8.4%−18.4%29,138Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-04Manuel Wayne OofficerSale2,480 @ $40.00$99K−17.5% of holding+8.4%−18.4%11,699Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-04Manuel Wayne OofficerSale520 @ $40.02$21K−4.4% of holding+8.4%−18.4%11,179Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-28MEYER DAVID JofficerSale2,000 @ $39.66$79K−17.9% of holding+10.3%−15.4%9,170Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

281 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01Bentz Julie A.directorAward / grant4416,852Form 4
2026-09-01STANLEY HEIDI BdirectorAward / grant4431,327Form 4
2026-09-01Philipps Jeffry L.directorAward / grant4420,977Form 4
2026-09-01MORRIS SCOTT LdirectorAward / grant44109,378Form 4
2026-09-01Widmann Janet D.directorAward / grant4422,828Form 4
2026-09-01Maw Scott HarlandirectorAward / grant4433,429Form 4
2026-09-01Kwawu Sena MdirectorAward / grant4418,459Form 4
2026-09-01Jacobsen Kevin BdirectorAward / grant4415,917Form 4
2026-09-01BURKE DONALD CdirectorAward / grant4436,086Form 4
2026-09-01KLEIN REBECCA AdirectorAward / grant4431,272Form 4
2026-06-15MEYER DAVID JofficerOther acquisition453,662Form 4
2026-05-15MEYER DAVID JofficerOther acquisition452,618Form 4
2026-05-14Thackston Jason RofficerGift3,21041,578Form 4
2026-05-08MORRIS SCOTT LdirectorAward / grant3,538109,334Form 4
2026-05-08BURKE DONALD CdirectorAward / grant3,53836,042Form 4
2026-05-08Jacobsen Kevin BdirectorAward / grant3,53815,873Form 4
2026-05-08KLEIN REBECCA AdirectorAward / grant3,53831,228Form 4
2026-05-08STANLEY HEIDI BdirectorAward / grant3,53831,283Form 4
2026-05-08Maw Scott HarlandirectorAward / grant3,53833,385Form 4
2026-05-08Philipps Jeffry L.directorAward / grant3,53820,933Form 4
2026-05-08Bentz Julie A.directorAward / grant3,53816,808Form 4
2026-05-08Kwawu Sena MdirectorAward / grant3,53818,415Form 4
2026-05-08Widmann Janet D.directorAward / grant3,53822,784Form 4
2026-04-15MEYER DAVID JofficerOther acquisition462,663Form 4
2026-03-16MEYER DAVID JofficerOther acquisition483,757Form 4
2026-03-09MORRIS SCOTT LdirectorGift8,613105,796Form 4
2026-03-02Rosentrater Heather LynnofficerWithheld for tax67178,132Form 4
2026-03-02Christie Kevin JofficerWithheld for tax66446,244Form 4
2026-03-02Thackston Jason RofficerWithheld for tax50058,788Form 4
2026-03-02Hesler Gregory CurtisofficerWithheld for tax40324,970Form 4
2026-03-02Cox Bryan AldenofficerWithheld for tax3369,441Form 4
2026-03-02Kinney Scott JofficerWithheld for tax27513,418Form 4
2026-03-02DiLuciano Joshua DofficerWithheld for tax27413,009Form 4
2026-03-02Manuel Wayne OofficerWithheld for tax27012,114Form 4
2026-03-02Hill Latisha DianeofficerWithheld for tax26318,978Form 4
2026-03-02MEYER DAVID JofficerWithheld for tax2565,104Form 4
2026-03-02Krasselt Ryan LofficerWithheld for tax25530,537Form 4
2026-03-02Alexander Alexis G.officerWithheld for tax794,485Form 4
2026-03-02Alexander Alexis G.officerOption exercise2574,564Form 4
2026-03-02Alexander Alexis G.officerOption exercise6420Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.