Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.87 · now $1.87 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AUTL has typically landed between $1.28 and $2.62 — a range of −31.3% to +40.0% from the issuance price $1.87.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,048 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-06-22 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.87) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AUTL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.87 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1.87 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.81 (-3.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.55–$2.07
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.28–$2.62
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −58.9% | −58.9% | +3.2% |
| 2020-02-21 | −57.7% | −59.9% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −57.4% | −60.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-23 | +123.5% | +0.0% | +123.5% |
| 2020-03-24 | +122.1% | +0.0% | +122.1% |
| 2020-03-18 | +121.0% | +0.0% | +121.0% |
2,048 overlapping windows · 2018-06-22 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Piccina Cintia | officer | Sale | 6,713 @ $2.34 | $16K | −33.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 13,287 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
20 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Piccina Cintia | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Piccina Cintia | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Azelby Robert | director | Award / grant | 47,500 | 47,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Bain Linda | director | Award / grant | 31,667 | 31,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Bain Linda | director | Award / grant | 47,500 | 47,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | BUTITTA CYNTHIA M | director | Award / grant | 31,667 | 31,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | BUTITTA CYNTHIA M | director | Award / grant | 47,500 | 47,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Iannone Robert | director | Award / grant | 31,667 | 31,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Iannone Robert | director | Award / grant | 47,500 | 47,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | BONNEY MICHAEL W | director | Award / grant | 31,667 | 31,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Leiderman Elisabeth | director | Award / grant | 47,500 | 47,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Richardson Ryan | director | Award / grant | 31,667 | 31,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Richardson Ryan | director | Award / grant | 47,500 | 47,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Rao Madduri Ravin | director | Award / grant | 31,667 | 31,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Rao Madduri Ravin | director | Award / grant | 47,500 | 47,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | YOUNG WILLIAM D | director | Award / grant | 31,667 | 31,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | YOUNG WILLIAM D | director | Award / grant | 47,500 | 47,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Leiderman Elisabeth | director | Award / grant | 31,667 | 31,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | BONNEY MICHAEL W | director | Award / grant | 47,500 | 47,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Azelby Robert | director | Award / grant | 31,667 | 31,667 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.