AURAAura Biosciences, Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $6.73 · now $6.73 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AURA has typically landed between $5.34 and $8.77 — a range of −20.6% to +30.4% from the issuance price $6.73.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,203 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-10-29 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6.73) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AURA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6.73 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$5.34worst · -20.6%$8.77best · +30.4%
  • now $6.73 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $6.6 (-1.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $6–$7.21
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $5.34–$8.77
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,203 windows spanning 2021-10-29 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2021-11-18−33.8%−33.8%+1.4%
2025-03-12−33.6%−33.6%+0.7%
2021-11-19−33.3%−34.4%+0.5%
3 best
2024-06-25+50.8%+0.0%+50.8%
2024-06-26+45.3%−3.2%+45.3%
2023-04-20+41.6%+0.0%+41.6%

1,203 overlapping windows · 2021-10-29 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
40%
−1.6%
n=5
Feb
40%
+2.5%
n=5
Mar
40%
−1.2%
n=5
Apr
20%
−5.3%
n=5
May
80%
+6.8%
n=5
Jun
60%
−1.0%
n=5
Jul
60%
+8.2%
n=5
Aug
20%
−9.6%
n=5
Sep
40%
+5.3%
n=5
Oct
25%
−6.1%
n=4
Nov
60%
+5.6%
n=5
Dec
20%
−9.6%
n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$9$52026-06-16: 1 insider sale, $82K — Gibney Anthony S2026-05-07: 1 insider sale, $39.0M — Matrix Capital Management Company, LP2026-04-16: 1 insider sale, $82K — Kilroy Conor2026-02-17: 5 insider sales, $529K — de los Pinos Elisabet, Hopkins Janet Jill, Plavsic Mark, Kilroy Conor …2026-01-20: 2 insider sales, $90K — de los Pinos Elisabet, Elazzouzi Amy2025-11-17: 1 insider sale, $93K — Hopkins Janet Jill2025-10-29: 2 insider sales, $63K — de los Pinos Elisabet, Elazzouzi Amy2025-10-16: 1 insider sale, $77K — Plavsic Mark2025-08-18: 1 insider sale, $52K — Elazzouzi Amy2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $52K2025-10: 3 open-market sales, $140K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $93K2026-01: 2 open-market sales, $90K2026-02: 5 open-market sales, $529K2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $82K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $39.0M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $82K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Gibney Anthony S — Sale on 2026-06-16, filed same daytenPercentOwner Matrix Capital Management Company, LP — Sale on 2026-05-07, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Kilroy Conor — Sale on 2026-04-16, filed same daydirector de los Pinos Elisabet — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed same dayofficer Hopkins Janet Jill — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed same dayofficer Plavsic Mark — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed same dayofficer Kilroy Conor — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed same dayofficer Elazzouzi Amy — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed same daydirector de los Pinos Elisabet — Sale on 2026-01-20, filed same dayofficer Elazzouzi Amy — Sale on 2026-01-20, filed same dayofficer Hopkins Janet Jill — Sale on 2025-11-17, filed same daydirector de los Pinos Elisabet — Sale on 2025-10-29, filed same dayofficer Elazzouzi Amy — Sale on 2025-10-29, filed same dayofficer Plavsic Mark — Sale on 2025-10-16, filed same dayofficer Elazzouzi Amy — Sale on 2025-08-18, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-16Gibney Anthony SofficerSale12,824 @ $6.42$82K−4.6% of holding+12.0%not yet — horizon still open265,354Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-07Matrix Capital Management Company, LPtenPercentOwnerSale6,922,870 @ $5.64$39.0M−100.0% of holding−22.0%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-16Kilroy ConorofficerSale11,738 @ $7.02$82K−5.1% of holding+4.3%not yet — horizon still open217,835Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-17de los Pinos ElisabetdirectorSale47,648 @ $5.06$241K−10.4% of holding+28.5%+42.4%409,815Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-17Hopkins Janet JillofficerSale20,401 @ $5.06$103K−8.1% of holding+28.5%+42.4%232,284Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-17Plavsic MarkofficerSale15,890 @ $5.05$80K−8.1% of holding+28.5%+42.4%181,397Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-17Kilroy ConorofficerSale12,079 @ $5.05$61K−6.7% of holding+28.5%+42.4%167,234Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-17Elazzouzi AmyofficerSale8,549 @ $5.06$43K−10.2% of holding+28.5%+42.4%75,532Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-20de los Pinos ElisabetdirectorSale16,928 @ $4.86$82K−3.6% of holding+6.8%+30.2%457,463Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-20Elazzouzi AmyofficerSale1,581 @ $4.86$8K−1.8% of holding+6.8%+30.2%84,081Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-17Hopkins Janet JillofficerSale17,109 @ $5.42$93K−6.3% of holding+5.5%+23.8%252,685Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-29de los Pinos ElisabetdirectorSale9,049 @ $6.35$57K−1.9% of holding+8.1%+8.7%474,391Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-29Elazzouzi AmyofficerSale896 @ $6.35$6K−1.0% of holding+8.1%+8.7%85,662Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-16Plavsic MarkofficerSale12,169 @ $6.35$77K−5.8% of holding−12.4%+6.0%197,287Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-18Elazzouzi AmyofficerSale7,722 @ $6.70$52K−8.2% of holding−11.3%−32.0%86,558Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-16Gibney Anthony SofficerPurchase50,000 @ $4.90$245K+591.6% of holding+3.3%−20.8%58,452Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-16Johnson David MichaeldirectorPurchase20,000 @ $4.90$98K+13.7% of holding+3.3%−20.8%166,167Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-16Gibney Anthony SofficerSale1,519 @ $5.15$8K−2.6% of holding+3.3%−20.8%56,933Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-16Johnson David MichaeldirectorPurchase5,000—ownership Δ n/a+3.3%−20.8%5,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-16Gibney Anthony SofficerPurchase12,500—ownership Δ n/a+3.3%−20.8%12,500Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-16Gibney Anthony SofficerPurchase12,500—ownership Δ n/a+3.3%−20.8%12,500Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-16Johnson David MichaeldirectorPurchase5,000—ownership Δ n/a+3.3%−20.8%5,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-16Kilroy ConorofficerSale7,162 @ $5.49$39K−3.8% of holding−2.9%−11.8%179,313Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-16Elazzouzi AmyofficerSale897 @ $5.49$5K−1.1% of holding−2.9%−11.8%81,381Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-18de los Pinos ElisabetdirectorSale20,221 @ $7.75$157K−4.0% of holding+5.2%−21.6%482,440Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-18Hopkins Janet JillofficerSale2,534 @ $7.75$20K−0.9% of holding+5.2%−21.6%269,794Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-18Plavsic MarkofficerSale2,151 @ $7.75$17K−1.0% of holding+5.2%−21.6%209,456Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-18Elazzouzi AmyofficerSale1,404 @ $7.75$11K−1.7% of holding+5.2%−21.6%82,278Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-21de los Pinos ElisabetdirectorSale15,955 @ $7.67$122K−5.0% of holding−5.0%−17.5%304,692Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-21Elazzouzi AmyofficerSale1,001 @ $7.67$8K−2.5% of holding−5.0%−17.5%38,442Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

71 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01Hopkins Janet JillofficerAward / grant58,850380,190Form 4
2026-09-01Elazzouzi AmyofficerAward / grant46,46046,460Form 4
2026-09-01Person JulieofficerAward / grant107,611107,611Form 4
2026-09-01Abu-Absi SusanofficerAward / grant134,513134,513Form 4
2026-09-01Elazzouzi AmyofficerAward / grant23,540143,600Form 4
2026-09-01Person JulieofficerAward / grant212,389212,389Form 4
2026-09-01Kratz EricaofficerAward / grant199,115199,115Form 4
2026-09-01Abu-Absi SusanofficerAward / grant265,487265,487Form 4
2026-09-01Kratz EricaofficerAward / grant100,885100,885Form 4
2026-09-01Hopkins Janet JillofficerAward / grant116,150116,150Form 4
2026-07-07Bender JeremydirectorAward / grant30,00030,000Form 4
2026-07-07Bender JeremydirectorAward / grant60,00060,000Form 4
2026-07-01Kilroy ConorofficerAward / grant14,858232,693Form 4
2026-06-11Srivastava SapnadirectorAward / grant15,00038,500Form 4
2026-06-11Bitetti Teresa MariedirectorAward / grant30,00030,000Form 4
2026-06-11Bitetti Teresa MariedirectorAward / grant15,00036,000Form 4
2026-06-11Mattessich Antony C.directorAward / grant15,00038,500Form 4
2026-06-11Mattessich Antony C.directorAward / grant30,00030,000Form 4
2026-06-11Johnson David MichaeldirectorAward / grant15,000194,167Form 4
2026-06-11Johnson David MichaeldirectorAward / grant30,00030,000Form 4
2026-06-11Srivastava SapnadirectorAward / grant30,00030,000Form 4
2026-05-19Holles Natalie C.directorAward / grant553,8441,153,962Form 4
2026-05-19Holles Natalie C.directorAward / grant600,118600,118Form 4
2026-05-19Holles Natalie C.directorAward / grant2,169,1032,169,103Form 4
2026-03-02Gibney Anthony SofficerAward / grant71,245278,178Form 4
2026-03-02Plavsic MarkofficerAward / grant62,339243,736Form 4
2026-03-02Plavsic MarkofficerAward / grant112,661112,661Form 4
2026-03-02Kilroy ConorofficerAward / grant62,339229,573Form 4
2026-03-02Kilroy ConorofficerAward / grant112,661112,661Form 4
2026-03-02Elazzouzi AmyofficerAward / grant80,47280,472Form 4
2026-03-02Elazzouzi AmyofficerAward / grant44,528120,060Form 4
2026-03-02Gibney Anthony SofficerAward / grant128,755128,755Form 4
2026-03-02de los Pinos ElisabetdirectorAward / grant166,000575,815Form 4
2026-03-02de los Pinos ElisabetdirectorAward / grant249,000249,000Form 4
2026-03-02Hopkins Janet JillofficerAward / grant89,056321,340Form 4
2026-03-02Hopkins Janet JillofficerAward / grant160,944160,944Form 4
2025-08-18Elazzouzi AmyofficerOption exercise4,74490,867Form 4
2025-08-18Elazzouzi AmyofficerOption exercise2,55483,935Form 4
2025-08-18Elazzouzi AmyofficerOption exercise2,31994,280Form 4
2025-08-18Elazzouzi AmyofficerOption exercise1,09485,029Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.