AUR · TickerCove

AURAurora Innovation, Inc.Technology · Information Technology Servicesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $6.36 · now $6.36 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AUR has typically landed between $4.44 and $9.79 — a range of −30.3% to +53.9% from the issuance price $6.36.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,324 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-05-10 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6.36) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$6.36 · 56% of range

$3.77 low$8.4 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.4%

typical move · IQR 29.2%

−30.3%worst (p90)+53.9%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where AUR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6.36 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $6.36 (+0.0%)
typical $6.27 (-1.4%)
middle 50% $5.35–$7.2
90% range $4.44–$9.79

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,324 windows spanning 2021-05-10 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2021-12-28	−62.8%	−62.8%	+0.0%
2021-12-27	−62.4%	−62.4%	+0.0%
2021-12-29	−61.1%	−61.8%	+2.7%
3 best
2023-11-27	+117.1%	+0.0%	+117.1%
2023-06-02	+116.0%	+0.0%	+116.0%
2023-11-28	+114.3%	+0.0%	+116.1%

1,324 overlapping windows · 2021-05-10 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

60%

−4.0%

n=5

Feb

60%

+1.0%

n=5

Mar

20%

−4.3%

n=5

Apr

60%

+5.6%

n=5

May

20%

−6.5%

n=5

Jun

50%

+10.9%

n=6

Jul

83%

+15.8%

n=6

Aug

17%

−3.1%

n=6

Sep

67%

+2.3%

n=6

Oct

20%

−9.2%

n=5

Nov

60%

+4.2%

n=5

Dec

20%

+14.1%

n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-17	Uber Technologies, Inc	tenPercentOwner	Sale	72,000,000 @ $6.55	$471.6M	−27.9% of holding	−6.3%	not yet — horizon still open	186,473,411	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Sale	2,800,043 @ $7.00	$19.6M	−100.0% of holding	−6.3%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Sale	42,639 @ $7.00	$299K	−100.0% of holding	−6.3%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-13	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Sale	22,163 @ $7.01	$155K	−100.0% of holding	−3.4%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-13	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Sale	338 @ $7.01	$2K	−100.0% of holding	−3.4%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-12	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Sale	14,692 @ $7.00	$103K	−100.0% of holding	−5.3%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-12	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Sale	224 @ $7.00	$2K	−100.0% of holding	−5.3%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Sale	1,420,222 @ $6.99	$9.9M	−100.0% of holding	−7.3%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-11	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Sale	21,627 @ $6.99	$151K	−100.0% of holding	−7.3%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Sale	34,181 @ $7.00	$239K	−100.0% of holding	−5.5%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-10	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Sale	520 @ $7.00	$4K	−100.0% of holding	−5.5%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-07	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Sale	1,826,508 @ $7.05	$12.9M	−100.0% of holding	−6.8%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-07	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Sale	27,814 @ $7.05	$196K	−100.0% of holding	−6.8%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-05	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Sale	177,085 @ $7.07	$1.3M	−36.0% of holding	−6.0%	not yet — horizon still open	315,415	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-05	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Sale	2,697 @ $7.07	$19K	−36.0% of holding	−6.0%	not yet — horizon still open	4,803	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-11	Wehner David M.	director	Purchase	82,500 @ $6.04	$498K	+50.3% of holding	+0.5%	not yet — horizon still open	246,519	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-02	Uber Technologies, Inc	tenPercentOwner	Sale	67,500,000 @ $7.10	$479.3M	−20.7% of holding	−12.4%	not yet — horizon still open	258,473,411	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-28	Hoffman Reid	director	Sale	1,082,118 @ $7.27	$7.9M	−100.0% of holding	−4.8%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-28	Hoffman Reid	director	Sale	60,118 @ $7.27	$437K	−100.0% of holding	−4.8%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-18	Hoffman Reid	director	Sale	312,882 @ $7.51	$2.3M	−22.4% of holding	−18.8%	not yet — horizon still open	1,082,118	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-18	Hoffman Reid	director	Sale	17,382 @ $7.51	$130K	−22.4% of holding	−18.8%	not yet — horizon still open	60,118	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-15	Hoffman Reid	director	Sale	4,948,637 @ $7.81	$38.6M	−78.0% of holding	−21.9%	not yet — horizon still open	1,395,000	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15	Hoffman Reid	director	Sale	274,925 @ $7.81	$2.1M	−78.0% of holding	−21.9%	not yet — horizon still open	77,500	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-25	Urmson Christopher	director	Purchase	258,000 @ $3.88	$1.0M	ownership Δ n/a	−0.5%	+74.5%	258,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-30	Bagley Brittany	director	Sale	50,000 @ $5.39	$270K	−11.2% of holding	−8.6%	−21.4%	398,372	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-06	Donahoe John J	director	Purchase	162,337 @ $6.10	$989K	ownership Δ n/a	−7.4%	−45.1%	162,337	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-06	Boyland Gloria R.	director	Sale	46,097 @ $5.92	$273K	−12.2% of holding	−13.2%	−39.1%	330,425	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-20	Uber Technologies, Inc	tenPercentOwner	Sale	— @ $1150000000.00	—	ownership Δ n/a	−17.0%	−51.0%	—	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-20	Uber Technologies, Inc	tenPercentOwner	Sale	— @ $1150000000.00	—	ownership Δ n/a	−17.0%	−51.0%	—	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

140 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-20	Fisher Ossa	officer	Withheld for tax	70,281	2,088,125	Form 4
2026-08-20	Maday David	officer	Withheld for tax	54,412	1,900,092	Form 4
2026-08-20	WEBB SHELLEY	officer	Withheld for tax	41,699	1,115,410	Form 4
2026-08-17	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Conversion	2,800,043	31,540,600	Form 4
2026-08-17	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Conversion	42,639	480,295	Form 4
2026-08-17	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Conversion	2,800,043	2,800,043	Form 4
2026-08-17	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Conversion	42,639	42,639	Form 4
2026-08-17	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Conversion	2,800,043	2,800,043	Form 4
2026-08-17	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Conversion	42,639	42,639	Form 4
2026-08-17	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Conversion	2,800,043	2,800,043	Form 4
2026-08-17	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Conversion	42,639	42,639	Form 4
2026-08-17	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Conversion	2,800,043	2,800,043	Form 4
2026-08-17	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Conversion	42,639	42,639	Form 4
2026-08-13	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Conversion	338	522,934	Form 4
2026-08-13	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Conversion	22,163	34,340,643	Form 4
2026-08-13	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Conversion	22,163	22,163	Form 4
2026-08-13	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Conversion	338	338	Form 4
2026-08-13	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Conversion	22,163	22,163	Form 4
2026-08-13	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Conversion	338	338	Form 4
2026-08-13	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Conversion	22,163	22,163	Form 4
2026-08-13	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Conversion	22,163	22,163	Form 4
2026-08-13	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Conversion	338	338	Form 4
2026-08-13	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Conversion	338	338	Form 4
2026-08-13	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Conversion	338	338	Form 4
2026-08-13	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Conversion	22,163	22,163	Form 4
2026-08-12	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Conversion	14,692	34,362,806	Form 4
2026-08-12	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Conversion	224	523,272	Form 4
2026-08-12	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Conversion	224	224	Form 4
2026-08-12	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Conversion	14,692	14,692	Form 4
2026-08-12	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Conversion	224	224	Form 4
2026-08-12	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Conversion	14,692	14,692	Form 4
2026-08-12	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Conversion	224	224	Form 4
2026-08-12	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Conversion	14,692	14,692	Form 4
2026-08-12	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Conversion	224	224	Form 4
2026-08-12	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Conversion	14,692	14,692	Form 4
2026-08-12	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Conversion	224	224	Form 4
2026-08-12	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Conversion	14,692	14,692	Form 4
2026-08-11	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Conversion	21,627	523,496	Form 4
2026-08-11	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Conversion	1,420,222	34,377,498	Form 4
2026-08-11	Volpi Michelangelo	director	Conversion	1,420,222	1,420,222	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i