Issued 2026-09-16 at $16.96 · now $16.96 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AUPH has typically landed between $13.00 and $21.35 — a range of −23.4% to +25.9% from the issuance price $16.96.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,006 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-09-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($16.96) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AUPH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $16.96 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $16.96 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $16.99 (+0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $15.55–$18.44
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $13–$21.35
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,006 windows spanning 2014-09-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2016-08-11 | −49.5% | −57.5% | +0.0% |
| 2016-08-12 | −48.9% | −55.7% | +0.0% |
| 2016-08-10 | −47.8% | −56.1% | +3.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2019-11-14 | +285.6% | +0.0% | +285.6% |
| 2019-11-12 | +268.9% | +0.0% | +268.9% |
| 2019-11-15 | +268.2% | +0.0% | +279.7% |
3,006 overlapping windows · 2014-09-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2029-03-02 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: Study of Aritinercept in Patients With Generalized Myasthenia Gravis (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
33%
+7.2%
n=12
Feb
42%
+0.6%
n=12
Mar
50%
+9.0%
n=12
Apr
67%
−0.5%
n=12
May
50%
−0.8%
n=12
Jun
50%
−1.0%
n=12
Jul
58%
+2.8%
n=12
Aug
58%
−0.6%
n=12
Sep
50%
+6.3%
n=12
Oct
58%
+4.9%
n=12
Nov
58%
+3.6%
n=12
Dec
42%
+9.3%
n=12
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Robertson Stephen P. | officer | Sale | 11,939 @ $15.95 | $190K | −2.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 588,848 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Robertson Stephen P. | officer | Sale | 20,975 @ $16.97 | $356K | −3.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 600,787 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | TANG KEVIN | director | Purchase | 206,005 @ $15.28 | $3.1M | +1.6% of holding | +3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,044,106 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-01 | TANG KEVIN | director | Purchase | 343,521 @ $15.28 | $5.2M | +2.7% of holding | +4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,838,002 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | TANG KEVIN | director | Purchase | 99 @ $15.34 | $2K | +0.0% of holding | +4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,838,101 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | TANG KEVIN | director | Purchase | 262,682 @ $15.31 | $4.0M | +2.1% of holding | +11.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,494,481 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | TANG KEVIN | director | Purchase | 2,299 @ $15.35 | $35K | +0.0% of holding | +11.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,231,799 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | TANG KEVIN | director | Purchase | 184,208 @ $14.22 | $2.6M | +1.5% of holding | +12.8% | +0.9% | 12,229,500 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-02 | TANG KEVIN | director | Purchase | 115,792 @ $14.21 | $1.6M | +1.0% of holding | +9.3% | +1.0% | 12,045,292 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | TANG KEVIN | director | Purchase | 83,561 @ $14.33 | $1.2M | +0.7% of holding | +9.3% | +1.0% | 11,929,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | TANG KEVIN | director | Purchase | 300,000 @ $13.90 | $4.2M | +2.6% of holding | +6.3% | +2.2% | 11,629,500 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | TANG KEVIN | director | Purchase | 214,839 @ $14.12 | $3.0M | +1.8% of holding | +6.3% | +2.2% | 11,844,339 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | TANG KEVIN | director | Purchase | 1,600 @ $14.38 | $23K | +0.0% of holding | +6.3% | +2.2% | 11,845,939 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | TANG KEVIN | director | Purchase | 200,000 @ $11.68 | $2.3M | +1.8% of holding | +3.7% | +14.7% | 11,329,500 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-04 | TANG KEVIN | director | Purchase | 100,000 @ $11.34 | $1.1M | +0.9% of holding | +2.8% | +23.0% | 11,129,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | TANG KEVIN | director | Purchase | 1,000,000 @ $10.12 | $10.1M | +10.0% of holding | +8.4% | +32.6% | 11,029,500 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Keenan Greg | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $10.50 | $210K | −13.0% of holding | +8.4% | +32.6% | 133,484 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | Keenan Greg | officer | Sale | 8,305 @ $8.23 | $68K | −5.1% of holding | +5.3% | +37.6% | 153,484 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-04 | TANG KEVIN | director | Purchase | 500,000 @ $7.92 | $4.0M | +5.3% of holding | +3.2% | +36.3% | 9,929,500 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-04 | Greenleaf Peter | director | Sale | 164,947 @ $7.92 | $1.3M | −8.4% of holding | +3.2% | +36.3% | 1,788,945 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-04 | TANG KEVIN | director | Purchase | 148,038 @ $8.00 | $1.2M | +1.6% of holding | +3.2% | +36.3% | 9,429,500 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-04 | TANG KEVIN | director | Purchase | 100,000 @ $8.09 | $809K | +1.0% of holding | +3.2% | +36.3% | 10,029,500 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-04 | Donley Matthew Maxwell | officer | Sale | 58,991 @ $7.92 | $467K | −8.0% of holding | +3.2% | +36.3% | 680,465 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-04 | Robertson Stephen P. | officer | Sale | 57,607 @ $7.92 | $456K | −10.2% of holding | +3.2% | +36.3% | 509,276 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-04 | Miller Joseph M | officer | Sale | 56,154 @ $7.92 | $445K | −8.9% of holding | +3.2% | +36.3% | 577,361 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-03 | TANG KEVIN | director | Purchase | 351,962 @ $8.02 | $2.8M | +3.9% of holding | +4.5% | +36.0% | 9,281,462 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Greenleaf Peter | director | Sale | 195,593 @ $8.00 | $1.6M | −9.1% of holding | +4.5% | +36.0% | 1,953,892 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | TANG KEVIN | director | Purchase | 100,720 @ $7.97 | $803K | +1.1% of holding | +4.5% | +36.0% | 8,929,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Donley Matthew Maxwell | officer | Sale | 65,902 @ $8.00 | $527K | −8.2% of holding | +4.5% | +36.0% | 739,456 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Robertson Stephen P. | officer | Sale | 64,872 @ $8.00 | $519K | −10.3% of holding | +4.5% | +36.0% | 566,883 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Miller Joseph M | officer | Sale | 61,859 @ $8.00 | $495K | −8.9% of holding | +4.5% | +36.0% | 633,515 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Keenan Greg | officer | Sale | 12,239 @ $8.00 | $98K | −7.0% of holding | +4.5% | +36.0% | 161,789 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | TANG KEVIN | director | Purchase | 399,280 @ $7.85 | $3.1M | +4.7% of holding | +6.7% | +41.6% | 8,828,780 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | TANG KEVIN | director | Purchase | 500,000 @ $9.09 | $4.5M | +6.3% of holding | −7.9% | −10.3% | 8,429,500 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-06 | TANG KEVIN | director | Purchase | 400,000 @ $9.01 | $3.6M | +5.3% of holding | −3.9% | −9.0% | 7,929,500 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-05 | TANG KEVIN | director | Purchase | 300,000 @ $8.91 | $2.7M | +4.1% of holding | −2.5% | −8.3% | 7,529,500 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
58 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | Goetz Kathleen | director | Award / grant | 23,931 | 23,931 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Bailey Jeffrey Allen | director | Award / grant | 23,931 | 23,931 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Nova Tina Susan | director | Award / grant | 23,931 | 23,931 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Johnson Craig A | director | Award / grant | 23,931 | 23,931 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | TANG KEVIN | director | Other acquisition | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Hearne Michael S | officer | Award / grant | 116,144 | 116,144 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Cole Ryan | officer | Award / grant | 116,144 | 116,144 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Cole Ryan | officer | Award / grant | 70,230 | 70,230 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Hearne Michael S | officer | Award / grant | 70,230 | 70,230 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Robertson Stephen P. | officer | Award / grant | 115,541 | 621,402 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Keenan Greg | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,069 | 154,449 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Greenleaf Peter | director | Withheld for tax | 100,890 | 1,840,379 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Donley Matthew Maxwell | officer | Withheld for tax | 40,761 | 680,299 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Miller Joseph M | officer | Withheld for tax | 37,511 | 576,421 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Robertson Stephen P. | officer | Withheld for tax | 36,525 | 505,861 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Robertson Stephen P. | officer | Award / grant | 98,813 | 98,813 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Robertson Stephen P. | officer | Award / grant | 59,090 | 542,386 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Keenan Greg | officer | Award / grant | 67,870 | 67,870 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Keenan Greg | officer | Award / grant | 40,586 | 162,518 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Donley Matthew Maxwell | officer | Award / grant | 97,256 | 97,256 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Miller Joseph M | officer | Award / grant | 95,700 | 95,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Greenleaf Peter | director | Award / grant | 328,424 | 328,424 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Greenleaf Peter | director | Award / grant | 196,403 | 1,941,269 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Miller Joseph M | officer | Award / grant | 57,229 | 613,932 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Donley Matthew Maxwell | officer | Award / grant | 58,160 | 721,060 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Greenleaf Peter | director | Withheld for tax | 100,171 | 1,744,866 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Robertson Stephen P. | officer | Withheld for tax | 34,638 | 483,296 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Donley Matthew Maxwell | officer | Withheld for tax | 32,901 | 662,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Miller Joseph M | officer | Withheld for tax | 32,424 | 556,703 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Keenan Greg | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,552 | 121,932 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Greenleaf Peter | director | Withheld for tax | 113,169 | 1,845,037 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Donley Matthew Maxwell | officer | Withheld for tax | 42,787 | 695,801 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Robertson Stephen P. | officer | Withheld for tax | 40,385 | 517,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Miller Joseph M | officer | Withheld for tax | 40,161 | 589,127 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Robertson Stephen P. | officer | Award / grant | 48,558 | 557,434 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Miller Joseph M | officer | Award / grant | 49,038 | 626,399 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Donley Matthew Maxwell | officer | Award / grant | 54,166 | 734,631 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Greenleaf Peter | director | Award / grant | 165,384 | 1,954,329 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Johnson Craig A | director | Withheld for tax | 6,039 | 14,592 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Bailey Jeffrey Allen | director | Withheld for tax | 2,716 | 22,775 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.