Issued 2026-09-16 at $26.25 · now $26.25 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AUBN has typically landed between $23.45 and $29.52 — a range of −10.7% to +12.4% from the issuance price $26.25.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($26.25) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AUBN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $26.25 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $26.25 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $26.15 (-0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $25.18–$27.12
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $23.45–$29.52
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −59.1% | −59.1% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −47.8% | −58.2% | +0.6% |
| 2020-02-21 | −45.5% | −57.9% | +1.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-18 | +69.4% | +0.0% | +74.1% |
| 2020-03-20 | +39.5% | +0.0% | +39.5% |
| 2009-05-28 | +37.5% | +0.0% | +37.5% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
−0.3%
n=20
Feb
35%
−0.1%
n=20
Mar
75%
+1.2%
n=20
Apr
40%
−0.7%
n=20
May
70%
+3.2%
n=20
Jun
50%
+2.0%
n=20
Jul
60%
−0.3%
n=20
Aug
50%
+0.6%
n=20
Sep
50%
+0.5%
n=20
Oct
55%
−1.6%
n=20
Nov
50%
+0.2%
n=20
Dec
65%
+1.7%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | Barrett J Tutt | director | Purchase | 51 @ $26.90 | $1K | +0.6% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,250 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-02 | HAM WILLIAM F JR | director | Purchase | 47 @ $26.90 | $1K | +0.9% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,084 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-02 | HOUSEL DAVID E | director | Purchase | 37 @ $26.90 | $995 | +0.4% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,301 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-02 | Barrett J Tutt | director | Purchase | 23 @ $26.01 | $598 | +0.2% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,273 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-02 | O'DONNELL SHANNON | officer | Purchase | 16 @ $26.90 | $430 | +0.9% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,891 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-02 | HOUSEL DAVID E | director | Purchase | 16 @ $26.01 | $416 | +0.2% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,317 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-02 | O'DONNELL SHANNON | officer | Purchase | 11 @ $26.01 | $286 | +0.6% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,902 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-02 | HAM WILLIAM F JR | director | Purchase | 10 @ $26.01 | $260 | +0.2% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,094 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-06 | Hedges David A | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $23.75 | $24K | +7.5% of holding | +6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,401 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | HOUSEL DAVID E | director | Purchase | 150 @ $23.96 | $4K | +1.6% of holding | +2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,264 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | Conn Walton T Jr. | director | Purchase | 200 @ $23.89 | $5K | +15.8% of holding | +0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,463 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-30 | Conn Walton T Jr. | director | Purchase | 150 @ $23.90 | $4K | +9.6% of holding | +0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,718 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-14 | Barrett J Tutt | director | Purchase | 57 @ $23.72 | $1K | +0.6% of holding | −7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,173 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | HAM WILLIAM F JR | director | Purchase | 53 @ $23.72 | $1K | +1.1% of holding | −7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,026 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | HOUSEL DAVID E | director | Purchase | 41 @ $23.72 | $973 | +0.5% of holding | −7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,097 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | Barrett J Tutt | director | Purchase | 26 @ $23.46 | $610 | +0.3% of holding | −7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,199 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | O'DONNELL SHANNON | officer | Purchase | 17 @ $23.72 | $403 | +0.9% of holding | −7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,862 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | HOUSEL DAVID E | director | Purchase | 17 @ $23.25 | $395 | +0.2% of holding | −7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,114 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | O'DONNELL SHANNON | officer | Purchase | 13 @ $23.46 | $305 | +0.7% of holding | −7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,875 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | HAM WILLIAM F JR | director | Purchase | 11 @ $23.25 | $256 | +0.2% of holding | −7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,037 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Conn Walton T Jr. | director | Purchase | 200 @ $24.10 | $5K | +19.0% of holding | −1.2% | +1.1% | 1,250 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Conn Walton T Jr. | director | Purchase | 100 @ $24.75 | $2K | +6.9% of holding | −2.1% | −3.9% | 1,550 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-24 | Conn Walton T Jr. | director | Purchase | 100 @ $24.75 | $2K | +10.5% of holding | −2.1% | −3.9% | 1,050 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-29 | Conn Walton T Jr. | director | Purchase | 100 @ $25.00 | $3K | +7.4% of holding | −3.6% | −3.0% | 1,450 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-29 | Conn Walton T Jr. | director | Purchase | 100 @ $25.00 | $3K | +14.8% of holding | −3.6% | −3.0% | 775 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-29 | Conn Walton T Jr. | director | Purchase | 75 @ $25.40 | $2K | +9.7% of holding | −3.6% | −3.0% | 850 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-14 | Barrett J Tutt | director | Purchase | 50 @ $27.06 | $1K | +0.6% of holding | +5.6% | +5.3% | 9,094 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-14 | HAM WILLIAM F JR | director | Purchase | 46 @ $27.06 | $1K | +0.9% of holding | +5.6% | +5.3% | 5,264 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-14 | HOUSEL DAVID E | director | Purchase | 36 @ $27.06 | $974 | +0.4% of holding | +5.6% | +5.3% | 9,041 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-14 | Barrett J Tutt | director | Purchase | 22 @ $27.14 | $597 | +0.2% of holding | +5.6% | +5.3% | 9,116 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-14 | O'DONNELL SHANNON | officer | Purchase | 16 @ $27.06 | $433 | +1.0% of holding | +5.6% | +5.3% | 1,553 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-14 | HOUSEL DAVID E | director | Purchase | 15 @ $27.14 | $407 | +0.2% of holding | +5.6% | +5.3% | 9,056 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-14 | O'DONNELL SHANNON | officer | Purchase | 11 @ $27.14 | $299 | +0.7% of holding | +5.6% | +5.3% | 1,564 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-14 | HAM WILLIAM F JR | director | Purchase | 9 @ $27.14 | $244 | +0.2% of holding | +5.6% | +5.3% | 5,273 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | HOUSEL DAVID E | director | Purchase | 100 @ $24.99 | $2K | +1.1% of holding | +5.9% | −6.2% | 9,005 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-03 | HOUSEL DAVID E | director | Purchase | 25 @ $24.17 | $604 | +0.3% of holding | +5.9% | −6.2% | 8,905 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-01 | Conn Walton T Jr. | director | Purchase | 200 @ $24.75 | $5K | +17.6% of holding | +12.6% | −1.2% | 1,337 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-18 | HOUSEL DAVID E | director | Purchase | 200 @ $25.39 | $5K | +2.3% of holding | +9.3% | −11.9% | 8,880 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-08 | Barrett J Tutt | director | Purchase | 48 @ $27.48 | $1K | +0.5% of holding | +4.3% | −6.3% | 9,022 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-08 | HAM WILLIAM F JR | director | Purchase | 45 @ $27.48 | $1K | +0.9% of holding | +4.3% | −6.3% | 4,909 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-08 | HOUSEL DAVID E | director | Purchase | 34 @ $27.48 | $934 | +0.4% of holding | +4.3% | −6.3% | 8,665 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-08 | Barrett J Tutt | director | Purchase | 22 @ $27.42 | $603 | +0.2% of holding | +4.3% | −6.3% | 9,044 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-08 | HOUSEL DAVID E | director | Purchase | 15 @ $27.42 | $411 | +0.2% of holding | +4.3% | −6.3% | 8,680 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-08 | O'DONNELL SHANNON | officer | Purchase | 14 @ $27.48 | $385 | +0.9% of holding | +4.3% | −6.3% | 1,526 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-08 | O'DONNELL SHANNON | officer | Purchase | 11 @ $27.42 | $302 | +0.7% of holding | +4.3% | −6.3% | 1,537 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-08 | HAM WILLIAM F JR | director | Purchase | 9 @ $27.42 | $247 | +0.2% of holding | +4.3% | −6.3% | 4,918 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | HOUSEL DAVID E | director | Purchase | 100 @ $27.19 | $3K | +1.2% of holding | −9.1% | −14.0% | 8,631 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-02 | Barrett J Tutt | director | Purchase | 53 @ $24.69 | $1K | +0.6% of holding | +5.0% | +3.4% | 8,948 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-02 | HAM WILLIAM F JR | director | Purchase | 49 @ $24.69 | $1K | +1.0% of holding | +5.0% | +3.4% | 4,853 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-02 | HOUSEL DAVID E | director | Purchase | 38 @ $24.69 | $938 | +0.4% of holding | +5.0% | +3.4% | 8,514 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-02 | Barrett J Tutt | director | Purchase | 26 @ $23.22 | $604 | +0.3% of holding | +5.0% | +3.4% | 8,974 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-02 | O'DONNELL SHANNON | officer | Purchase | 17 @ $24.69 | $420 | +1.1% of holding | +5.0% | +3.4% | 1,499 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-02 | HOUSEL DAVID E | director | Purchase | 17 @ $23.22 | $395 | +0.2% of holding | +5.0% | +3.4% | 8,531 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-02 | O'DONNELL SHANNON | officer | Purchase | 13 @ $23.22 | $302 | +0.9% of holding | +5.0% | +3.4% | 1,512 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-02 | HAM WILLIAM F JR | director | Purchase | 11 @ $23.22 | $255 | +0.2% of holding | +5.0% | +3.4% | 4,864 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-01 | HOUSEL DAVID E | director | Purchase | 90 @ $19.77 | $2K | +1.1% of holding | −2.8% | +8.3% | 8,476 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-29 | Walker William James IV | officer | Purchase | 100 @ $19.91 | $2K | +33.3% of holding | −3.7% | +14.1% | 400 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-28 | Lawler Michael A | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $19.89 | $20K | +50.0% of holding | −3.9% | +13.7% | 3,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-28 | Hedges David A | director | Purchase | 150 @ $19.88 | $3K | +1.2% of holding | −3.9% | +13.7% | 13,010 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-25 | HOUSEL DAVID E | director | Purchase | 200 @ $19.86 | $4K | +2.4% of holding | −4.6% | +7.0% | 8,386 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
25 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | Smith Robert Lawrence | officer | Award / grant | 1,190 | 1,190 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Hedges David A | director | Award / grant | 2,078 | 2,078 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Walker William James IV | officer | Award / grant | 1,207 | 1,207 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | O'DONNELL SHANNON | officer | Award / grant | 1,084 | 1,084 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Hedges David A | director | Withheld for tax | 169 | 13,401 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Smith Robert Lawrence | officer | Withheld for tax | 122 | 714 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Walker William James IV | officer | Withheld for tax | 121 | 749 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | O'DONNELL SHANNON | officer | Withheld for tax | 114 | 1,457 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Walker William James IV | officer | Award / grant | 8 | 870 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | O'DONNELL SHANNON | officer | Award / grant | 7 | 1,571 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Smith Robert Lawrence | officer | Award / grant | 8 | 836 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Hedges David A | director | Award / grant | 10 | 13,570 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-11 | MAY ANNE M | director | Other acquisition | 222,275 | 222,275 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-11 | MAY ANNE M | director | Other acquisition | 5,667 | 227,942 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-11 | MAY ANNE M | director | Other acquisition | 15,960 | 15,960 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-11 | Spencer Sandra J. | director | Code W | 666,825 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-11 | Spencer Sandra J. | director | Code W | 47,882 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-11 | Spencer Sandra J. | director | Code W | 17,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-11 | Spencer Sandra J. | director | Code W | 222,275 | 222,275 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-11 | Spencer Sandra J. | director | Code W | 15,961 | 15,961 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-11 | Spencer Sandra J. | director | Code W | 5,667 | 227,942 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-24 | Hedges David A | director | Award / grant | 550 | 13,560 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-24 | Walker William James IV | officer | Award / grant | 431 | 838 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-24 | Smith Robert Lawrence | officer | Award / grant | 421 | 806 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-24 | O'DONNELL SHANNON | officer | Award / grant | 387 | 1,899 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.