AUB · TickerCove

AUBAtlantic Union Bankshares CorporationFinancial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $39.14 · now $39.14 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AUB has typically landed between $34.59 and $44.90 — a range of −11.6% to +14.7% from the issuance price $39.14.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($39.14) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$39.14 · 69% of range

$30.43 low$43.01 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.3%

typical move · IQR 11.6%

−11.6%worst (p90)+14.7%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where AUB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $39.14 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $39.14 (+0.0%)
typical $39.24 (+0.3%)
middle 50% $36.98–$41.51
90% range $34.59–$44.9

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2009-02-03	−47.1%	−47.1%	+2.0%
2020-02-21	−43.0%	−43.0%	+0.0%
2020-02-20	−40.5%	−40.5%	+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-05	+88.9%	+0.0%	+88.9%
2009-03-11	+66.8%	+0.0%	+66.8%
2009-03-06	+63.7%	+0.0%	+63.7%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

45%

−2.6%

n=20

Feb

35%

−0.8%

n=20

Mar

50%

−0.2%

n=20

Apr

50%

+1.0%

n=20

May

60%

+0.3%

n=20

Jun

60%

−1.6%

n=20

Jul

75%

+6.2%

n=20

Aug

45%

+0.2%

n=20

Sep

35%

−1.0%

n=20

Oct

50%

+1.5%

n=20

Nov

75%

+5.0%

n=20

Dec

60%

+2.0%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-04-20	AGEE NANCY H	director	Purchase	650 @ $39.05	$25K	+1.7% of holding	−8.8%	not yet — horizon still open	37,797	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-08	Ellett Frank Russell	director	Purchase	1,441 @ $31.49	$45K	+1.9% of holding	+7.6%	+22.3%	78,047	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-07	Ellett Frank Russell	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $31.54	$158K	+7.0% of holding	+10.5%	+24.8%	76,606	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-06	Ellett Frank Russell	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $31.79	$159K	+7.5% of holding	+10.5%	+24.0%	71,606	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-05	Ellett Frank Russell	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $31.32	$157K	+8.1% of holding	+10.3%	+21.6%	66,606	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-28	Asbury John C	director	Purchase	7,500 @ $32.91	$247K	+2.9% of holding	+6.9%	+12.6%	270,532	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

234 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-01	Wimbush Frederick Blair	director	Award / grant	473	13,742	Form 4
2026-07-01	TILLETT RONALD L	director	Award / grant	473	11,422	Form 4
2026-07-01	SHEPHARD JOEL R	director	Award / grant	473	4,039	Form 4
2026-07-01	Stephenson Mona Abutaleb	director	Award / grant	473	14,325	Form 4
2026-07-01	KIMBLE DONALD R	director	Award / grant	473	12,944	Form 4
2026-07-01	AGEE NANCY H	director	Award / grant	827	38,624	Form 4
2026-07-01	WAMPLER KEITH L	director	Award / grant	473	20,647	Form 4
2026-07-01	Delorier Rilla S	director	Award / grant	473	9,216	Form 4
2026-07-01	SCHRIDER DANIEL J	director	Award / grant	473	179,817	Form 4
2026-07-01	Engola Paul	director	Award / grant	827	9,134	Form 4
2026-07-01	Micklem Mark C	director	Award / grant	473	22,736	Form 4
2026-07-01	O'Hara Michelle A.	director	Award / grant	473	5,944	Form 4
2026-07-01	Ellett Frank Russell	director	Award / grant	827	81,837	Form 4
2026-07-01	MCCANN PATRICK J	director	Award / grant	473	33,658	Form 4
2026-07-01	SCHREINER LINDA V	director	Award / grant	473	25,488	Form 4
2026-05-13	Dodd Alexander D	officer	Award / grant	16,447	16,447	Form 4
2026-04-01	Wimbush Frederick Blair	director	Award / grant	560	13,269	Form 4
2026-04-01	TILLETT RONALD L	director	Award / grant	560	10,949	Form 4
2026-04-01	SHEPHARD JOEL R	director	Award / grant	1	3,566	Form 4
2026-04-01	MCCANN PATRICK J	director	Award / grant	560	33,185	Form 4
2026-04-01	SCHREINER LINDA V	director	Award / grant	560	25,015	Form 4
2026-04-01	Ellett Frank Russell	director	Award / grant	979	81,010	Form 4
2026-04-01	KIMBLE DONALD R	director	Award / grant	560	12,471	Form 4
2026-04-01	SCHRIDER DANIEL J	director	Award / grant	560	179,344	Form 4
2026-04-01	AGEE NANCY H	director	Award / grant	979	37,147	Form 4
2026-04-01	Corbin Patrick E.	director	Award / grant	187	18,506	Form 4
2026-04-01	WAMPLER KEITH L	director	Award / grant	560	20,174	Form 4
2026-04-01	Delorier Rilla S	director	Award / grant	560	8,743	Form 4
2026-04-01	Stephenson Mona Abutaleb	director	Award / grant	560	13,852	Form 4
2026-04-01	Engola Paul	director	Award / grant	979	8,307	Form 4
2026-04-01	Micklem Mark C	director	Award / grant	560	22,263	Form 4
2026-04-01	O'Hara Michelle A.	director	Award / grant	560	5,471	Form 4
2026-03-13	Linderman Matthew L.	officer	Withheld for tax	298	18,201	Form 4
2026-03-02	Lape Rachael R	officer	Award / grant	4,231	23,867	Form 4
2026-03-02	Miller Clare	officer	Award / grant	4,034	15,821	Form 4
2026-03-02	Linderman Matthew L.	officer	Award / grant	4,681	18,499	Form 4
2026-03-02	Woolley Douglas F. III	officer	Award / grant	4,409	36,020	Form 4
2026-03-02	Gorman Robert Michael	officer	Award / grant	10,185	101,234	Form 4
2026-03-02	Ring David V	officer	Award / grant	8,169	52,675	Form 4
2026-03-02	O'Brien Shawn E.	officer	Award / grant	7,281	32,041	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i