Issued 2026-09-16 at $99.74 · now $99.74 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AU has typically landed between $82.56 and $128.27 — a range of −17.2% to +28.6% from the issuance price $99.74.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($99.74) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AU has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $99.74 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $99.74 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $103.8 (+4.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $93.67–$113.93
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $82.56–$128.27
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −41.3% | −41.3% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-24 | −40.5% | −40.5% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-23 | −40.4% | −40.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-11-20 | +83.5% | +0.0% | +104.2% |
| 2008-11-19 | +76.9% | −5.0% | +94.0% |
| 2008-11-12 | +71.5% | −13.2% | +77.1% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | Busia Kojo Osei Frimpong | director | Sale | 400 @ $89.09 | $36K | −10.0% of holding | +0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,600 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
9 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | Sands Diana L | director | Award / grant | 1,580 | 1,580 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Tilk Jochen Erhard | director | Award / grant | 2,371 | 2,371 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Garner Albert Headden | director | Award / grant | 1,580 | 1,580 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Ferguson Alan Murray | director | Award / grant | 1,580 | 1,580 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Randolph Marcus Philip | director | Award / grant | 1,580 | 1,580 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Cleaver Bruce Alan | director | Award / grant | 1,580 | 1,580 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | MAGIE JINHEE | director | Award / grant | 1,580 | 1,580 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Newton-King Nicola | director | Award / grant | 1,580 | 1,580 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Busia Kojo Osei Frimpong | director | Award / grant | 1,580 | 1,580 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.