Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.11 · now $10.11 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ATRA has typically landed between $6.15 and $15.55 — a range of −39.2% to +53.8% from the issuance price $10.11.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,973 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-10-16 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.11) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ATRA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.11 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $10.11 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $9.85 (-2.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $8.15–$11.54
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $6.15–$15.55
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,973 windows spanning 2014-10-16 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-10-11 | −86.3% | −86.3% | +0.0% |
| 2023-10-12 | −83.0% | −84.8% | +4.0% |
| 2023-10-13 | −77.4% | −85.1% | +1.9% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-11-10 | +182.6% | +0.0% | +204.5% |
| 2024-01-03 | +177.3% | +0.0% | +177.3% |
| 2017-12-28 | +163.9% | +0.0% | +163.9% |
2,973 overlapping windows · 2014-10-16 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
33%
+1.3%
n=12
Feb
33%
−5.4%
n=12
Mar
42%
+3.0%
n=12
Apr
25%
−3.5%
n=12
May
42%
+3.5%
n=12
Jun
67%
+7.0%
n=12
Jul
58%
−2.0%
n=12
Aug
58%
−2.2%
n=12
Sep
75%
+4.0%
n=12
Oct
27%
−9.3%
n=11
Nov
83%
+23.3%
n=12
Dec
33%
−6.8%
n=12
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Cherry Brian N | director | Purchase | 104,166 @ $9.60 | $1000K | +167.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 166,486 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-17 | Nguyen AnhCo | director | Sale | 5,062 @ $8.08 | $41K | −3.7% of holding | +23.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 132,775 | Form 4 · filed 9 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Nguyen AnhCo | director | Sale | 5,241 @ $9.13 | $48K | −3.7% of holding | +5.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 137,837 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Grant-Huerta Yanina | officer | Sale | 2,414 @ $9.13 | $22K | −4.6% of holding | +5.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 49,636 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | EcoR1 Capital, LLC | director | Purchase | 507,407 @ $9.35 | $4.7M | +48.6% of holding | +85.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,552,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Panacea Innovation Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 313,446 @ $10.10 | $3.2M | −23.7% of holding | +85.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,011,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Grant-Huerta Yanina | officer | Sale | 1,603 @ $5.08 | $8K | −4.7% of holding | +1.3% | +72.1% | 32,227 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Nguyen AnhCo | director | Sale | 1,442 @ $5.09 | $7K | −2.3% of holding | +1.3% | +72.1% | 61,978 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Nguyen AnhCo | director | Sale | 1,298 @ $5.09 | $7K | −2.0% of holding | +1.3% | +72.1% | 63,420 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Grant-Huerta Yanina | officer | Sale | 377 @ $5.08 | $2K | −1.2% of holding | +1.3% | +72.1% | 31,850 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Nguyen AnhCo | director | Sale | 198 @ $5.08 | $1K | −0.3% of holding | +1.3% | +72.1% | 64,776 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Grant-Huerta Yanina | officer | Sale | 100 @ $5.08 | $508 | −0.3% of holding | +1.3% | +72.1% | 31,750 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Nguyen AnhCo | director | Sale | 58 @ $5.08 | $295 | −0.1% of holding | +1.3% | +72.1% | 64,718 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Grant-Huerta Yanina | officer | Sale | 24 @ $5.08 | $122 | −0.1% of holding | +1.3% | +72.1% | 33,830 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | Panacea Innovation Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 80,554 @ $6.07 | $489K | −5.7% of holding | −21.5% | +39.7% | 1,324,446 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Nguyen AnhCo | director | Sale | 2,859 @ $13.19 | $38K | −4.2% of holding | +30.3% | −40.9% | 65,030 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Grant-Huerta Yanina | officer | Sale | 1,645 @ $13.19 | $22K | −4.7% of holding | +30.3% | −40.9% | 33,613 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Grant-Huerta Yanina | officer | Sale | 85 @ $13.19 | $1K | −0.3% of holding | +30.3% | −40.9% | 33,528 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Grant-Huerta Yanina | officer | Sale | 74 @ $13.19 | $976 | −0.2% of holding | +30.3% | −40.9% | 33,454 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Nguyen AnhCo | director | Sale | 56 @ $13.19 | $739 | −0.1% of holding | +30.3% | −40.9% | 64,974 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Grant-Huerta Yanina | officer | Sale | 1,668 @ $11.61 | $19K | −4.5% of holding | −1.5% | −68.7% | 35,258 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Nguyen AnhCo | director | Sale | 1,620 @ $11.62 | $19K | −2.3% of holding | −1.5% | −68.7% | 67,889 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Nguyen AnhCo | director | Sale | 1,281 @ $11.62 | $15K | −1.8% of holding | −1.5% | −68.7% | 69,509 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Grant-Huerta Yanina | officer | Sale | 86 @ $11.61 | $999 | −0.2% of holding | −1.5% | −68.7% | 36,926 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Nguyen AnhCo | director | Sale | 57 @ $11.61 | $662 | −0.1% of holding | −1.5% | −68.7% | 70,790 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Grant-Huerta Yanina | officer | Sale | 55 @ $11.61 | $638 | −0.1% of holding | −1.5% | −68.7% | 37,012 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Panacea Innovation Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 55,000 @ $12.19 | $670K | +4.1% of holding | −8.9% | −70.2% | 1,405,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-17 | Panacea Innovation Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 19,335 @ $9.64 | $186K | +1.5% of holding | +24.1% | −63.3% | 1,350,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | Nguyen AnhCo | director | Sale | 3,276 @ $6.76 | $22K | −4.4% of holding | +13.5% | +87.4% | 70,847 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | Grant-Huerta Yanina | officer | Sale | 2,218 @ $6.76 | $15K | −5.6% of holding | +13.5% | +87.4% | 37,067 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Nguyen AnhCo | director | Sale | 3,331 @ $7.00 | $23K | −4.3% of holding | −10.5% | +66.0% | 74,123 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Hyllengren Eric J | officer | Sale | 1,211 @ $7.00 | $8K | −2.1% of holding | −10.5% | +66.0% | 56,231 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Henrich Jill | officer | Sale | 1,059 @ $7.00 | $7K | −5.4% of holding | −10.5% | +66.0% | 18,679 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
40 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Redmile Group, LLC | director | Option exercise | 55,387 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Redmile Group, LLC | director | Option exercise | 101,089 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Redmile Group, LLC | director | Option exercise | 38,735 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Redmile Group, LLC | director | Withheld for tax | 60 | 636,852 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Redmile Group, LLC | director | Option exercise | 195,211 | 636,912 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Redmile Group, LLC | director | Option exercise | 195,211 | 636,912 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Redmile Group, LLC | director | Withheld for tax | 60 | 636,852 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Redmile Group, LLC | director | Option exercise | 195,211 | 636,912 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Redmile Group, LLC | director | Withheld for tax | 60 | 636,852 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Cherry Brian N | director | Award / grant | 24,000 | 62,320 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Fust Matthew K | director | Award / grant | 12,000 | 30,188 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Ciongoli Gregory Austin | director | Award / grant | 12,000 | 12,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | HEIDEN WILLIAM K | director | Award / grant | 12,000 | 34,188 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Panacea Innovation Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Option exercise | 259,163 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Panacea Innovation Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Withheld for tax | 5 | 307,894 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Panacea Innovation Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Option exercise | 259,163 | 307,899 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Nguyen AnhCo | director | Award / grant | 81,100 | 143,078 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Grant-Huerta Yanina | officer | Award / grant | 20,300 | 52,050 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-28 | Panacea Innovation Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Option exercise | 48,737 | 259,163 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-28 | Panacea Innovation Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Withheld for tax | 1 | 48,736 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-28 | Panacea Innovation Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Option exercise | 48,737 | 48,737 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | MALLIK AMEET | director | Award / grant | 7,828 | 16,928 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | HEIDEN WILLIAM K | director | Award / grant | 7,828 | 22,188 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Roncarolo Maria Grazia | director | Award / grant | 7,828 | 17,368 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Touchon Pascal | director | Award / grant | 7,828 | 77,955 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Fust Matthew K | director | Award / grant | 7,828 | 18,188 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Gallagher Carol Giltner | director | Award / grant | 7,828 | 33,012 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-16 | Adiumentum Capital Fund I LP | director | Award / grant | 227,000 | 377,193 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-16 | Adiumentum Capital Fund I LP | director | Award / grant | 75,572 | 1,209,395 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-31 | Hyllengren Eric J | officer | Disposition | 154 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-31 | Hyllengren Eric J | officer | Disposition | 381 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-31 | Hyllengren Eric J | officer | Disposition | 262 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-31 | Hyllengren Eric J | officer | Disposition | 543 | 160 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-31 | Hyllengren Eric J | officer | Disposition | 331 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-31 | Hyllengren Eric J | officer | Disposition | 8,961 | 2,656 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-31 | Hyllengren Eric J | officer | Disposition | 350 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-31 | Hyllengren Eric J | officer | Disposition | 1,900 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-31 | Hyllengren Eric J | officer | Disposition | 460 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-31 | Hyllengren Eric J | officer | Disposition | 496 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | Hyllengren Eric J | officer | Award / grant | 34,050 | 57,442 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.