Issued 2026-09-16 at $124.71 · now $124.71 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ATR has typically landed between $111.90 and $135.63 — a range of −10.3% to +8.8% from the issuance price $124.71.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($124.71) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ATR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $124.71 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $124.71 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $125.75 (+0.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $120.85–$130.66
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $111.9–$135.63
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −33.0% | −33.0% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-25 | −32.1% | −32.1% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-24 | −29.0% | −29.0% | +1.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-06 | +28.5% | −1.0% | +28.5% |
| 2009-03-11 | +28.2% | +0.0% | +28.2% |
| 2009-03-05 | +27.2% | −2.0% | +27.2% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Vinczeller Shiela | officer | Sale | 765 @ $130.37 | $100K | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 26,313 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Touya Gael | director | Sale | 3,415 @ $133.69 | $457K | −10.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 29,427 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Touya Gael | director | Sale | 325 @ $134.55 | $44K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 29,102 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Prieur Marc | officer | Sale | 3,376 @ $136.23 | $460K | −17.5% of holding | −3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,947 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Prieur Marc | officer | Sale | 124 @ $137.10 | $17K | −0.8% of holding | −3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,823 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Tanda Stephan B. | director | Sale | 9,838 @ $136.16 | $1.3M | −4.0% of holding | −4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 238,729 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Tlili Hedi | officer | Sale | 8,854 @ $135.00 | $1.2M | −36.5% of holding | −4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,379 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-09 | Prieur Marc | officer | Sale | 4,553 @ $115.53 | $526K | −18.7% of holding | +5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,770 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Prieur Marc | officer | Sale | 447 @ $116.08 | $52K | −2.3% of holding | +5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,323 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Vinczeller Shiela | officer | Sale | 2,957 @ $112.36 | $332K | −9.7% of holding | +14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,676 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Vinczeller Shiela | officer | Sale | 385 @ $113.52 | $44K | −1.4% of holding | +14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,291 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Vinczeller Shiela | officer | Sale | 213 @ $114.53 | $24K | −0.8% of holding | +14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,078 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Gong Xiangwei | officer | Sale | 4,200 @ $116.13 | $488K | −28.0% of holding | +10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,774 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Hudson Irene Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 842 @ $123.45 | $104K | −36.3% of holding | −11.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,480 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Hudson Irene Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 422 @ $123.38 | $52K | −22.2% of holding | −11.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,480 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Touya Gael | director | Sale | 3,500 @ $141.35 | $495K | −11.1% of holding | −8.7% | −18.2% | 27,963 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Prieur Marc | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $137.81 | $276K | −12.7% of holding | −4.3% | −16.5% | 13,745 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Ackerman Daniel | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $121.23 | $1.8M | −33.6% of holding | +2.9% | −10.6% | 29,607 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Touya Gael | director | Sale | 2,110 @ $136.13 | $287K | −6.2% of holding | −4.1% | −6.7% | 31,853 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Touya Gael | director | Sale | 390 @ $136.05 | $53K | −1.2% of holding | −4.1% | −6.7% | 31,463 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | Vinczeller Shiela | officer | Sale | 1,167 @ $137.97 | $161K | −4.4% of holding | −8.9% | −8.2% | 25,134 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-13 | Prieur Marc | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $152.80 | $306K | −11.3% of holding | −2.3% | −34.0% | 15,745 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | Chainey Kimberly | director | Sale | 1,671 @ $152.79 | $255K | −13.1% of holding | −0.2% | −37.5% | 11,088 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-06 | Touya Gael | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $152.50 | $457K | −8.1% of holding | −0.3% | −35.1% | 34,263 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-06 | Touya Gael | director | Sale | 300 @ $153.88 | $46K | −0.9% of holding | −0.3% | −35.1% | 33,963 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | Gong Xiangwei | officer | Sale | 7,000 @ $156.49 | $1.1M | −40.5% of holding | −6.1% | −36.4% | 10,265 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | Prieur Marc | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $158.34 | $950K | −25.3% of holding | −5.7% | −36.2% | 17,745 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | Tlili Hedi | officer | Sale | 3,614 @ $155.96 | $564K | −27.8% of holding | −5.4% | −37.7% | 9,379 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-07 | Tanda Stephan B. | director | Sale | 16,471 @ $151.18 | $2.5M | −7.4% of holding | −5.5% | −44.6% | 206,286 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-07 | Tanda Stephan B. | director | Sale | 1,300 @ $152.08 | $198K | −0.6% of holding | −5.5% | −44.6% | 204,986 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-07 | Vinczeller Shiela | officer | Sale | 995 @ $152.42 | $152K | −3.6% of holding | −5.5% | −44.6% | 26,301 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-06 | Tanda Stephan B. | director | Sale | 900 @ $152.03 | $137K | −0.4% of holding | −5.1% | −45.4% | 204,986 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | Tanda Stephan B. | director | Sale | 11,329 @ $152.39 | $1.7M | −5.2% of holding | −6.5% | −46.8% | 204,986 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
163 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Touya Gael | director | Award / grant | 2,637 | 31,739 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Touya Gael | director | Award / grant | 9,531 | 9,531 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Tanda Stephan B. | director | Option exercise | 9,838 | 248,567 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Tanda Stephan B. | director | Option exercise | 9,838 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Matthews Candace S. | director | Award / grant | 226 | 8,101 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Marey-Semper Isabel | director | Award / grant | 151 | 9,821 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Kampouri Monnas Giovanna | director | Award / grant | 151 | 10,128 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | FOTIADES GEORGE L | director | Award / grant | 151 | 6,446 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Owens B Craig | director | Award / grant | 151 | 11,234 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Wunderlich Ralf K. | director | Award / grant | 151 | 18,690 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Glickman Sarah JS | director | Award / grant | 151 | 4,553 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Xing Julie | director | Award / grant | 151 | 5,242 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Trerotola Matthew L. | director | Award / grant | 151 | 9,307 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Gandhi Aditya | officer | Award / grant | 2,664 | 2,664 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Tlili Hedi | officer | Withheld for tax | 688 | 24,233 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Hudson Irene Elizabeth | officer | Option exercise | 842 | 2,322 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Hudson Irene Elizabeth | officer | Option exercise | 842 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Glickman Sarah JS | director | Award / grant | 1,326 | 4,402 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | FOTIADES GEORGE L | director | Award / grant | 1,326 | 6,295 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Matthews Candace S. | director | Award / grant | 1,552 | 7,875 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Xing Julie | director | Award / grant | 1,326 | 5,091 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Wunderlich Ralf K. | director | Award / grant | 1,326 | 18,539 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Owens B Craig | director | Award / grant | 1,326 | 11,083 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Kampouri Monnas Giovanna | director | Award / grant | 1,326 | 9,977 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Trerotola Matthew L. | director | Award / grant | 1,326 | 9,156 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Marey-Semper Isabel | director | Award / grant | 1,326 | 9,670 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Tanda Stephan B. | director | Withheld for tax | 15,538 | 238,729 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Touya Gael | director | Withheld for tax | 4,175 | 32,842 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Tlili Hedi | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,598 | 24,921 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Gong Xiangwei | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,559 | 14,974 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Vinczeller Shiela | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,150 | 30,633 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Hudson Irene Elizabeth | officer | Withheld for tax | 247 | 1,902 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Tanda Stephan B. | director | Award / grant | 39,485 | 254,267 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Touya Gael | director | Award / grant | 7,454 | 37,017 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Prieur Marc | officer | Award / grant | 7,969 | 24,323 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Hudson Irene Elizabeth | officer | Award / grant | 684 | 2,149 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Ackerman Daniel | officer | Award / grant | 2,410 | 32,779 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Gong Xiangwei | officer | Award / grant | 6,502 | 17,533 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Tlili Hedi | officer | Award / grant | 7,196 | 28,519 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Vinczeller Shiela | officer | Award / grant | 6,032 | 32,783 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.